Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
The various political philosophies are largely benevolent in theory, but people, in general, are inherently less so. It has often been recognized that a benevolent dictatorship is probably the best form for a government to take. The issue is alway…
A fairly common logical fallacy when dealing with people. Their actions tend to have multiple inputs and influences, and no reliable conclusions can be drawn by comparing the resulting outcomes. Trying to guess what might have occurred if someone …
Looking at a single issue, or from a single POV, things look differently. Sure, we can produce tons of oil; more than we do now. You always have the option of producing more if you set your mind to that. The reality is that there is more than tha…
If you can buy the same item locally for the same price, it would obviously make no difference. As noted above, many items are either constructed from, or constructed by non-local sources. In the absence of a truly competitive alternative, the cos…
As to what constitutes "that moment in time", I can only speak for myself. I tend to look for things which are showing a pattern of doing well over the last couple of weeks as a validation of performance over the last month or two. Something that …
Trading is data-driven. As such, stale data (what has happened in the 'distant' past), and non-existing data (what will happen in the future) are of little assistance or predictive value. All that matters is what is at that moment in time. The re…
Portfolio construction matters if you are basically passive; or, at most, B&H. Someone who trades need have little concern about such details. So yes, Mike, while FD can do portfolio construction, it isn't really his way of doing things genera…
I think the problem with selling is often the violation of a basic tenant: Never turn a trade into an investment. You go into a trade (hopefully) with an expectation of a specific outcome. You should also have a specific profit goal. When you rea…
@racqueteer… A question for you. Excuse me if I am dense. Are you making a distinction between a trade and an investment? And where on that spectrum would we find a speculation?
To the first question, the answer is yes. As to a speculation, I'm…
I think the problem with selling is often the violation of a basic tenant: Never turn a trade into an investment. You go into a trade (hopefully) with an expectation of a specific outcome. You should also have a specific profit goal. When you rea…
I have a good friend who has always maintained that the model for the weather was flawed; even before any global warming effects were considered. He was convinced that the historical weather patterns were atypical, and they were the basis for the p…
Quite frankly, while the overall government's policy may affect the financial condition of the country, this notion that the President in office is responsible for everything that happens is a real stretch. As someone who appreciates logic, it's ap…
You're being active in choosing the original make-up of the portfolio. Do you anticipate continuing to be active in modifying the portfolio? If not, do you want the managers to be active in adjusting their allocations? IOW, how rigid do you want …
There's a middle ground, though, @hank. You can change the volatility of your holdings; rather than outright selling everything and later buying everything back. Volatility is your friend on an upswing, but not on a downturn! Get quiet; rather th…
I've had occasion to deal with reps on a couple of occasions since moving from TDA, and my experiences have been positive. Many were with TDA originally; so that may not mean anything. I must say, Crash, you seem to have had an inordinate degree o…
Obviously, there's no 'right' answer to this question, and probably only makes sense if you are a B&H investor.
Additionally, an indexer will likely hold less than ten positions, anyway; maybe as few as one.
I'm also going to nitpick a little now that the discussion is (maybe) winding down, but the original question was problematic from the get-go. "Proportional" means that when the variable changes, the result varies by some fixed factor. "Directly p…
Whatever you say, FD. Clearly, being perceived as being 'right' is more important to you than it is to me. My original response to you was fairly innocuous, obviously valid, and you could have chosen to simply drop the matter there. But instead, …
Which do you prefer, FD, 100% correct or 90% correct and 10% wrong (which makes it wrong)? I personally prefer to make my statements 100% right if at all possible - Don't you? If nothing else, it reduces the occasions when I'm wrong. There are fa…
So what you're saying mirrors my own statement. You can find people for which each approach could be 'correct' or 'incorrect'. Your original post said nothing about "the average Joe". For someone who trades, the fund is probably the inferior prod…
So what you're saying mirrors my own statement. You can find people for which each approach could be 'correct' or 'incorrect'. Your original post said nothing about "the average Joe". For someone who trades, the fund is probably the inferior prod…
The use of ETF is inferior because some people may panic and sell in the middle of the day just to find later the price reverse.
Cuts both ways, though. Some may hold the OEF throughout the day just to find out that the price may have been higher…
Yes, price, by itself, doesn't tell you the value of an investment if distributions are being reinvested (not to mention if the distributions are spent). Nor do distributions, by themselves, indicate the value of an investment. Only the total retu…
I'm happy to share, but my allocation varies; as does its composition; so I'm not sure what benefit anyone could derive from that?
At the moment, there is a very narrow focus within US LC, and I'm effectively near my 'normal' allocation levels:
st…
It seems as if that only works if the income for the special distribution was not accounted for in the TR prior to their distribution. I can't think of how that could happen over the course of a full year? If it were being accumulated, wouldn't th…
You guys are reviving a lot of memories. I didn't have the same military-related background as some, but my fields of study were in chemistry and physics during the late 60s; so I grew up during the computer revolution. My first computer was the v…
Just a quick comment: If you were fortunate enough to have been on the ThinkorSwim platform originally, Schwab will honor the $15 trading fee TOS was charging. Presumably this is not new news to anyone who qualifies.
FWIW, I tried earlier this year on this forum to stir others to participate in Semis and the MAG7, but with little success.
Might be worth mentioning that many of us can read the tea leaves, but just don't chime in about it. Semis have been really …
"Senior bank examiners texted female employees photos of their penises."
Yikes!
Presumably no problem with the photos being too large for the texted message to handle? ;-)
@racqueteer : "playing the odds" Sell in May & go away ?
Definitely not. First of all, I'm not sure this axiom is even valid. Secondly, algorithms are often based around market axioms. This has to be a situational decision. We've had all …
Difficult to stay patient sitting on an unfilled Limit Buy Order when Mr. Market is rising and rising..... But it cannot go on forever upward in a straight line. Behavioral Economics. Beware of FOMO.
All true enough, @Crash, but when things come dow…
It always comes down to the same thing: If you're going to be passive, but you don't want to just hold an index, then you need to trust your manager to male the right moves.
If you're going to be active and perhaps second-guess your manager, then…
What would happen if stock trading was available around the clock
Some "investors" would get very little sleep! ;-)
First thing that came to my mind as well!
A lot of that difference happened early on. If you change the starting data to 2018 or thereabouts, it's a toss-up, but I don't see a clear advantage for one over the other. The type of bond holdings are more likely to be an issue than the governa…
@Crash, I'm sorry for your difficulties, but I have to say that you seem to be the unluckiest person alive with all the difficulties you've had. I originally was with Thinkorswim; then to TDA; finally on to Schwab. All the transitions were smooth …
