Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
The solutions are evident, but will not be politically tenable until robo-advisers replace every financial planner and index funds cause every Wall Street trader and analyst to lose their jobs. Only when the uber-capitalists are themselves Ubered ou…
When it was Warren Buffet's turn to speak he asked "what will we do when the last job is shipped overseas"?
We'll all sit home waiting for Amazon's driverless truck or drone to arrive with our latest toy.
How will we afford that toy if we're not …
In the broad picture, I agree with the expectation that both stock and bond returns will be lower going forward. But not as explained. Stocks may violate mean reversion (i.e. overshoot the mean on the low side, rather than simply dropping close…
Computerization
Automation
Artificial Intelligence
Globilization and free flow of knowledge, capital and goods
People living longer and needing to work longer
I think to see what the future looks like, you need to look at the worlds past.
In the pa…
Here are the inflation adjusted returns for VFINX since 1986 (last column):
I used this.
http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=27&year1=1988&year2=2016
If VFINX was $27 in '88 it's 2016 value would be 54.92 and now it is 201. So…
Look back at the last 5y of, say, DVY or TWEIX and check both the size and the number of the "corrections."
You can wait a long unprofitable time waiting for a supposedly better moment to invest.
I always keep the Japanese experience in the back …
I am planning to move my entire portfolio from money market fund to vanguard index funds. should i wait for the washington circus to leave town or should i act now? inquiring minds need to know. thx
What mix of index funds are you considering?
@MFO Members: In afternoon trading the S&P SmallCap 600 is up 1.40% , and the Russell 2000 1.50%. The trend is your friend !
Regards,
Ted
Yes ... But ... June '15 still not exceeded - another 52pts to go. Is that telling us something?
The…
I had exchanged posts with Mr Snowball on SCMFX. It seemed overrated to me.
What were you looking at when you made the selection?
A quick look at it Vs the RUT showed that over 10 years they were about equal and over 5 years SCMFX underperformed R…
@johnN
Have you a suggestion for such an investment? What oil vehicles?
Already bottomed probably already arrived more than 6 months ago, eh?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/not-even-opec-can-save-the-struggling-oil-market-now-goldman-says-2016-08…
I got this one - NovoTech A118C Dash Camera. It doesn't have a battery that can catch fire in a hot car.
You don't know it is there and hopefully never need to use it.
I think these days you need one in the rear window to catch the people ramm…
Suspect the weak link with any of these types of devices is in the intercept of wifi and/or cellular transmissions. Take all the precautions you can re networks - but that's always the weakest link IMHO.
I just did a quick search and it appear you …
Hi @DanHardy
Lastly. How many pre-loaded apps came with your Nexus phone.? Are there not more than a few that you choose not to have? Not only for the sake of using memory, but that you would have not personally chosen to download the app. Ever try…
Morn'in.....
For Android phones, have you a best choice for anti-virus/malware app. ? The phone will have both personal and business use.
Free is not part of the consideration for which vendor is selected. We currently use Norton and McAfee on diffe…
You know this about perma-inflation Singer, right?
Thanks - I got suckered in. The need for news organizations to feed the pipeline really throws out a lot of junk.
At the end of the first quarter of this year, Switzerland’s central bank held $119.7 billion in publicly traded stocks. The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) web site indicates that it is now allocating 20 percent of its foreign currency reserves to stock…
From the WSJ ariticle:
"A VAT would need to be coupled with an elimination or reduction of existing taxes on businesses, including payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare. Likewise, consumers would need tax relief to make up for the higher pr…
I see we are in MSNBC mode here.
Mexican trucks? Well, when they can figure out how to put rings on Pistons correctly, then I'll consider.
Robots will be the biggest cause of job loss in the next 20 years. JMO.
Wow!
What is your prediction f…
I would say Government stimulus - spending went to prop up the so called banking system. We are victims of all the liar loans that were bought up. Takes a long time to digest.
Just my 2 cents.
That is part of it. Money on stimulus project also flow…
They tend to be in tech, health and other areas that those who lost their jobs cannot aspire to at age 50-60, and those younger must get new degrees and training. The jobs our parents and family tended to have for a lifetime are mostly gone now, or…
But very few of the "good" new jobs are in the industries where the losses dominated. They tend to be in tech, health and other areas that those who lost their jobs cannot aspire to at age 50-60, and those younger must get new degrees and training.…
Thanks for posting - very good analysis.
I got this from my advisor over at AC. I figured I would share it with you all as there are some good tidbits of advice and strategy in it. Enjoy.
John
https://www.americancentury.com/content/dam/american…
One of the contributing factors for the slow growth economy, from my perspective, is the Affordable Care Act. Money, for many, that was spent for goods and services is now spent on health care premiums.
Don, that is a factor. I'm wondering what th…
I think you prove my point that you are included in the "people don't understand". It was Bretton Woods in 1944, not Brenton. And you evidently fail to note that I'm not talking about 1944, or 1971, but 1929. You may not understand, but the United S…
"the monetary and fiscal tools used in that system"
Yes, those worked particularly well in 1929.
I think you prove my point that people don't understand - the 1944 Brenton Woods agreement was what the USA ended in '71.
Read and learn
https://en…
A lot of it has to do with the U.S. depegging from gold in 1971 creating a system of floating currencies, and the subsequent trade imbalances created with first, Japan, then China
True but most people don't understand that. They hear gold standa…
I agree with the article, and with the comments by Lewis.
My current pet peeve is regarding the lack of movement on needed infrastructure updating. Spending on these clearly needed items would not only remedy the crumbling infrastructure, but would…
@DanHardy I'm keeping inflation on the stove (on a "side burner") if only to keep myself honest. Is it starting, or is this only a meandering, to and fro? I don't think it's wise to bet too much on trend-following here. If the bond vigilantes beco…
Central banks globally continue to "play". Bank of Japan recently did not further reduce bond yields with market intervention, but expanded their ability to purchase Japanese market etf's (equity) specifically designed for the Bank of Japan to purc…
MJG I think you missed my point. This has nothing to do with the *performance* of stocks vs. bonds. Just the unthinkable and this time it really was different as 1958 was a watershed event in that for the first time ever bonds yielded more than s…
I just got a 36 month new auto loan for 1.49%. Most couldn't do that; I have a great credit score. Yes, I think many are living paycheck to pay check. That is the new normal. I don't see anything on the horizon that indicates that there is a t…
The markets are up about 8% since the Brexit low, we're lucky to get a gain of 10% for an entire year. We're obviously at the high end of our 2 year trading range, so I'm holding onto my dry powder for now.
Not much talk about that trading range …
I think that you have to balance the risk of a capital loss with income for that time frame and goal.
The only one in that group that make sense to me it PONDX. You get a 7.33% return. So if it were to decline 15% over 2 years you would break ev…
I think the question for stocks is: Are they in a trading range or will they brake out?
I'll go with they are in a trading range. Oil will probably keep it so.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-falling-below-40-a-barrel-again-isnt-out-of-the-q…
The US rates trend will continue. It isn't too difficult to see 1% on the 10 year. Zero is more difficult to envision but it will probably hit that, if not go below.
Although the unemployment rate is 5.5% workers do not have pricing power and ser…
