Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Well, I can’t argue with the premise that if you’re in the market for a LONG period, B&H has worked and should (we hope) continue to work.
The author says that “… a buy and hold strategy will put me ahead.”
Ahead? That’s it? Ahead?
Roughly 70…
You didn't win anything unless you were short the market.
Well, I guess you did win some respect from your fellow investors
and you can gloat for a month.
The question is - can you guess right more than once?
Have a good weekend.
Flack
Thanks for guessing whether the S&P 500 will close higher
or lower than the February close.
Looks like Feb. closed at 2713.83.
HIGHER
Old Skeet
Bud
Ted
Flack
MJG (“in the long term”)
LOWER
Hank
jlev
And then there’s Old Joe… ever the hedge b…
Hi MJG
I understand that you are not interested in this little (should I say: meaningless) game… but thanks for posting.
I’ll put you down for HIGHER IN THE LONG RUN (as a statistical default).
Ted,
"The Linkster guarantee's a 100% chance the S&P 500 will close above 3,000 from it's present level of 2747. That would be a 9% + gain !"
Should I assume that you mean by the end of the year?
Or are you going balls to the wall and suggestin…
Hi Hank
Just a word of warning – I’ve heard that there are some
defective crystal balls out there that were manufactured in China.
These balls emit radiation that may cause brain cancer.
Please check your crystal ball for the country of origin and…
Hi Old Skeet
" I'll play, although picking market direction short term can be a challenge."
Yeah, but who doesn't like a small challenge?
Especially when there's nothing to lose.
I also guess that March S&P 500 will close HIGHER.
Back in the…
Well, I’m not up to date on this loan business… but I don’t believe that the CFPB deserves “independence” from oversight any more than any other law enforcement agency.
If Mulvaney is changing the rules from sweeping and ambiguous and you don’t like…
Dear LewisBraham,
You said: “The safest way to play is for a troll to attack people anonymously without using his real name. That way it's impossible to tell whether he's a real person or a bot or sock puppet for Mr. Putin or some other already exi…
You guys are a hoot!
It’s amusing to see you glom together in your group-think sessions
and get all hot and sticky in your fright, anger and despair.
What will you, Krugman and Mark Cuban say when the apocalypse fails to appear?
Or maybe you’re pla…
Alarming is the fact that so few people have a written investment/retirement plan.
"• Calculating retirement savings needs. Forty-seven percent of workers who provided an estimate for their retirement savings needs did so by guessing, a survey fin…
This article reminds me of a few of the misplaced,
misunderstood aphorisms that Wall Street has appropriated
from popular culture… since they have so few original ideas.
“Cash is King”
We all know that when the famous Bible thumping music critic …
Dear Hank
“I am suggesting that there's a tremendous (and apparently growing)
gap between the haves and the have-nots of the world - both at home
and globally.”
Oh, really? This might interest you --
Global Economic Inequality
by Max Roser
…
I was a card counter
In the mid 80s, I moved to Las Vegas and played blackjack for a living.
It was an interesting experiment that lasted about six months.
Playing serious blackjack taught me several things including
how I would later approach in…
Thanks guys.
I'm going to check the voltage in the house - an older house.
I do have two LED bulbs that have lasted quite a while. They are the DAYLIGHT variety.
They produce a much brighter light (resembling daylight) and I use them during the wint…
“There are no easy solutions when investing in an overvalued market. Every strategy has its flaws. The trick for investors in this situation is to find a strategy they can stick with no matter what happens in the markets. No one can predict the futu…
VintageFreak
Perhaps you didn't read this comment from Old Joe -
"If you had read the article under discussion you would be aware that it describes how the perspective of a very influential White House adviser was formed by his father's financial…
VintageFreak,
How about adding all of the previous BUY BUY BUY111 and SELL SELL SELL!!! signals?
Maybe red dots for sell and green dots for buy.
Then later we can connect the dots :-)
The recent returns haven’t been sexy but the pay certainly is.
I imagine that Swensen is ‘earning’ even more these days.
Yaledailynews.com
BY VIVIAN YEE
STAFF REPORTER
Friday, September 10, 2010
Yale’s endowment may have shed nearly a quarter of i…
Reply to @hank:
Hank,
This may sound funny but I felt that we had something in common
aside from investing... yeah, Michigan.
I lived and worked in downtown Detroit in the advertising business.
Moved out to Dearborn - nice quiet place - before m…
Born in Detroit – well, just north of the city limits in Warren.
I lived in downtown in ’69 when the National Guard had to be called in
to squelch the citywide riot. (I think it was ’69 – it’s been so long ago)
We hunkered down for almost a week. T…
The more fools, the better.
When the market suckers in the likes of Mila Kunis and
other celebrity nitwits, we still have room to run higher.
Before a serious flush, traders want to see a volume spike.
On a seasonal basis, this should show up in ab…
Daves,
For me, your request just raises a lot of questions.
Since you’re looking for a conservative mix of funds, I’m guessing
that you have already saved 8 to 9 times your current family salary and
have very little or no debt.
If not, why sele…
Hi, MJG
Thank you for the additional explanation of your investing methodology.
With your help, I found the WSJ charting data.
It looks much like Yahoo's charts. I prefer Stockcharts.com for their cleaner graphics,
although its data only goes bac…
Dear MJG,
Thanks for joining the discussion.
From your most recent post –
”…tentative attempt to forecast market movement.”
“…composite forecasting criteria…”
“…to forecast market movement…”
I find it interesting that you attempt to forecast the m…
Charles,
Thanks for running the stats on the 10-month simple moving average.
Actually, I don’t know how to generate these numbers (I’ve never learned
how to do a simple spreadsheet). I appreciate you taking the time to do this.
As you may know, I …
ron,
Yes, SCHD looks very similar.
I'm just thinking that these low-volatility options are a simple idea
to quiet the market noise a bit... for some of the more jittery investors.
Hi, MJG
Thanks for posting Mark Hulbert’s article.
It’s been a long time since I read any of his work because I found it a waste of time.
Something like thirty years ago, I started using the 200-day simple moving average
to move in and out of my…
