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LewisBraham
Hi Hank,
Your satire came across very well. Don't worry about the user name.
Best,
Lewis
I think the hardest thing prognosticators have to do is both deeply understand the past while simultaneously understanding what is different from the past today. And then, we, poor souls, have to figure out which prognosticator is worth trusting.
Actually, Grantham's models generally include other kinds of stocks besides the S&P 500 and other asset classes in general, although he doesn't always talk about them in more macro interviews. So, I wouldn't call his view of investing narrow.
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I think in Grantham's case, given the models he uses, it's safe to assume he is referring to U.S. large caps, i.e., something akin to the S&P 500 or Russell 1000.
I don't have a problem necessarily with the government providing a socialist tax-payer funded bailout to too-big-to-fail private sector businesses just so long as the executives running those businesses never complain about things like big governmen…
@davidrmoranWhy did you jump subjects? Local news never did longform journalism of the sort we're discussing, at least not small papers, even in their postwar heyday (to the 1990s or a bit before). Newsday maybe, if we call that 'local'.
That's a f…
Although it could be inside information, more likely the previous decline before the SVB news had to do with rate hikes and Wells Fargo layoffs:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3945059-why-did-wells-fargo-stock-drop-today-fed-chairs-comments-hit-bank…
I think Yogi is right here, though, that the KRE ETF did actually fall on Thursday and Friday. My question here is similar to the Washington Mutual debacle, when active fund managers kept holding that one straight into its meltdown. How do they not …
"All crises have involved debt that, in one fashion or another, has become dangerously out of scale in relation to the underlying means of payment.” - John Kenneth Galbraith. It is the same story over and over again with each crash. Greed causes peo…
I’m not sure on this, but part of the issue may have to do with who legally owns the bank's assets because the bank is in the private sector, and what the FDIC and regulators are legally allowed to do with those assets in the event of a bank run and…
Long-end of the yield curve fell quite a lot on Friday as Treasury bonds rallied: https://ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/ Seems like this banking crisis is leading equity investors to get defensive, thinking the Fed will blink soon and cut rates. On the f…
@PressmUP Certainly not directed specifically at you, but more to comments I see in general here and throughout the "Interwebs" quite often. In fact, in this particular thread, I see no remarks from you regarding journalism's declining quality.
@davidrmoran I would say national news coverage is still decent in print, but local news is terrible and getting worse: https://news.northwestern.edu/stories/2022/06/newspapers-close-decline-in-local-journalism/
The publications you mention on the p…
HSFNX has long been run by one of the smartest managers investing in the financial/banking sector—David Ellison. While investors are selling every bank, it wouldn’t surprise me if he is finding some good opportunities in this environment. He studies…
I do find it painfully amusing to see board members here and people in general complaining about the “decline in quality journalism” while simultaneously seeking new and ever more ingenious ways to avoid paywalls so they can read and disseminate art…
@gman57 They (Liesman, Santelli, others) were talking about how the banks were treated after they came to the rescue last time (Lehman's) that they may not be in such a hurry to help out now. Implying they got screwed by the government somehow.
Th…
The problem with the word "freedom" when applied to nation states is the word is overused and ambiguous enough to have lost a distinct meaning or perhaps any meaning because of constant propaganda regarding it. Wall Street tends to define "freedom" …
Aside from the fact that the election official Gates repeatedly has to get police protection and go into hiding, this part has disturbing broader implications:
When we spoke, Kari Lake was still contesting her loss in Arizona’s gubernatorial electio…
Agreed, but I don't see how Kaczyński and Poland being Holocaust deniers can be good for ethical principles either: https://washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/02/01/polands-senate-passes-holocaust-complicity-bill-despite-concerns-from-u-s-is…
To me calling Poland and the Philippines "free" is laughable after the Kaczyński regime in Poland and the Duterte and Marcos Jr. ones in the Philippines. These are authoritarians, too. I would also say Poland has a heightened Russia-invasion risk.
@msf I'm sorry but I don't see this as a Santos level of deception. To be honest, I don't think you do either, but for some reason you are standing by that comparison, perhaps to win an argument. If anything, Samra's record today is long enough to s…
There is always risk. The question is are you being rewarded enough for taking it? Unlike Russia, China's economy is so intertwined with ours, it is virtually impossible to avoid completely, even if you want to. Here's one example: https://investope…
Samra was an Oakmark analyst, but analysts matter, regardless what managers may claim as the origins of their ideas. Moreover, originally much of the record of ARTKX was built by Samra with co-manager Daniel J. O'Keefe, who is another Oakmark alum t…
Expenses on retail shares should drop from 0.96% to an estimated 0.50 to 0.60% range if you compare them to the institutional share classes. That maybe turns this from a three star fund to a four star one— a meaningful win.
Cutting a low-cost provider like BlackRock out of the bidding to run state retirement plans makes no sense financially, and it's easy to see how costs for plan participants would tick higher as a result.
Well, interest rates certainly aren’t going to be negative in Europe anymore for a while. I think the Fed is more focused on destroying the job market than it is the stock market right now.
@msf The problem is images have their own reality in 2023. Fake news can lead to real election results, so ESG becomes a prop in the culture wars. And those results matter a great deal to the oil lobby.
There is also long-term climate risk assessm…
There's a lot more evidence that active management doesn't help returns in aggregate, but you see plenty of high cost active funds in retirement plans, and no lobbyist funded political campaign to block them. This campaign to block ESG funds from re…
@larryB It’s a weird world. I had a neighbor some years ago who would polish his car every day, clearly loved it. I forget what model it was. Eventually his wife left him but he kept the car. I don’t think she felt she could compete with the vehicle…
This conflict on redlining aside, it’s funny to me to see people get nostalgic about their cars when they were young. Much of my life I took subways and buses, so I have no nostalgia for automobiles. It’s hard to get nostalgic about public transport…
@sma3 Does becoming a billionaire require you to support actions that if not criminal, are morally repugnant?
I know you are being somewhat facetious, but what you’re asking is actually a vital question regarding executive fiduciary duty to shareho…
