Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Unfortunately, there is no investment instrument that you can depend on to produce rewards without risk even if it might seem so at the moment. But you are looking at a 10-20 years time frame and the risk of a "stress condition" that will severely a…
Can anyone come up with specific practical (actionable) advice on what to do or not to do in their fund selection that they can justify from a study like this?
I don't mean silly things like "don't buy the hottest fund last year" because you don't…
@Accipiter, thanks for the response. Did you turn off the auto save on mobile devices too? If so, can we please have it back?
It is much more critical on a mobile device because chances of inadvertantly touching something to move away from the pag…
@Scott, the biggest problem with Johnson and JC Penney is that he didn't understand his target market (or he was completely trying to replace it to another segment which is even more foolhardy).
The people who shopped in JC Penney traditionally are…
>> You need to keep buying, rotating, withdrawing, selecting, protecting, etc over the lifetime of investing.
Cman, do you not use funds and fund managers? (honest question, not rhetorical or fightpicking)
I am talking about fund investing. …
I am always amused when people label something as the start of a recovery after seeing a day or two of market movement. It could be so or it could be the same as the last two dead cat bounces especially if the broader market turns south. This is whe…
I agree with @bobc above as the right thing to do if one isn't actively managing their allocation. However, selecting the right allocation fund is not that easy or time efficient for individual investors depending on their needs.
As I have mention…
There is another way to look at this than the false choices of being able to mechanistically predict or not which only results in religious debates.
Whether it is fundamental indicators or technical charts, they all contribute towards what I call s…
These services practice a craft (not a science), just as art appraisers, tax assessors, etc. practice a craft. If the valuation (pricing for NAV) is on average fair (i.e. not biased to one side or the other), then on average the NAV will match th…
@msf, I recommend that if you get a chance sit with a bond trader and see how bond trading is done. What I am saying will make a lot more sense then.
You are theoretically assuming things about Mark to Market that is close to equity markets than t…
@bee is exactly right. Treasury+Fed action of backstopping prevented the fiscal cliff from much worse condition.
@charles, you have made the case anecdotally that we are not in recession. I am not saying we are. And the contrast from the recession …
@Charles has part of the answer. But borrowing to invest is just a small part of it. Fed policies make a lot of existing money available to invest from people who have capital.
Part of it is from a need to increase returns from low yields on bonds…
This trend in Motif investing (there is even a startup catering to this fad) is not going to end well for the investors, only for the organizers and the early entrants who manage to get out at the peak of inflows.
Very nice content-rich article.
@charles, not to diminish Gundlach in any way, but people who are good at pointing out problems are seldom people good at solving them and vice versa. Happens in corporate America on a daily basis. And yet we seem to…
I do think the idea of Ackman lobbying congress to get something done about a company that he's bet against is something worth watching and could make things very interesting if he's actually successful.
As they say winners write histories.
One h…
I agree with @MarkM's general assessment here. Using these metrics is like using an average value to predict variation. You don't need to be a math whiz to realize the futility of it.
When you have a dominant bull market all of them look like geniu…
Cman usually offers insightful comments, but he's become a bit opaque for me this time.
If you read all my comments at length in the earlier thread that explains the issue in a lot of detail, you might find it less opaque. :-)
mutualfundobserver.…
This is how religion takes hold. As the means to explain a world that is too complex to be modeled easily. Faith in a story becomes the means to satisfy that need for explanation but with non-falsifiable statements. Usually, such a story requires ta…
More of the flawed metrics being propagated.
It serves everyone's purpose though.
Financial industry likes it hoping investors will just hold under any conditions and let them siphon off fees regardless of what happens to the markets.
Average in…
A currency hedged Japan ETF is a dual edged sword. It will capture more of any move up but also more of any move down.
Until, Japan can deliver on its economy fundamentals so that their markets are not just inversely tied to yen for a technical tra…
I thought it was just
Investment success always depends on being lucky enough to be in a rising bull market for enough years to make more than enough to care what happens after that.
Just building infrastructure and being competitive isn't going to help if that isn't to cater to consumption somewhere.
This whole consumption production cycle only works in a closed economy where there are no barriers to capital or labor.
A few …
This is the time to separate the men from the boys, if you can't stand the heat get out of the kitchen. The equities market will rebound, and the S&P 500 will finish 2014 up approximately 15%.
Never tire of talking your book in alpha male clic…
MJFOX will already have factored in the 4/11 movement in Japan in today's NAV with fair value pricing. If the US markets go up tomorrow and Japan is expected to follow on Monday, tomorrow's NAV for MJFOX can be up at end of day pricing despite the F…
A moderate risk globally diversified allocation portfolio with the typical 60/40, small/large and growth/value split would be down about .90% today. Calibrate your portfolio results and/or allocation funds accordingly regarding risk levels you/fund …
Rob Arnott and PAUDX finally found an environment which fits their investment model.
Was that a bit harsh?
:-) Not at all. Was thinking the same thing. He has only been waiting for how long for this moment? 5 years?
Anything with short or emerging…
@bee, it isn't that simple in practice. Zoom into that graph on M* by moving the slider at the bottom to the left and you will see that the price will pass back and forrh through the SMA many times and if you trade in all of them, you will lose mone…
@mona, @johnchisum it is better to follow trends such as
How technology hurts health providers
for investing purposes than be distracted by political ideology colored data (on either side of spectrum).
The changes mentioned in that article above…
Tops and bottoms don't come self announced. There are many false signals in both technical and fundamental analysis. So, responding to those false signals hurt returns if there are trading costs. However, risk management strategies can protect capit…
@Ted, any particular reason you are in FBTCX with more than twice the ER of FBIOX under the same manager? Not much difference in holdings despite the diffetent size classification.
A bit too early to start celebrating yet. It looks like a technical…
The fund probably uses fair value pricing so that people don't do datelining between the two markets. When the index is very volatile, the fund price might look like it is averaging out two days' changes.
Following the ETF EWJ should give you a goo…
Jack Bogle was on CNBC yesterday defending the technology of HFT and how it benefits small investors. Audio problems aborted the interview prematurely.
