Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
"This continues to be one of the most hated bull markets, and yet the direction continues to be from lower left to upper right."
And it'll continue to be hated until the moment it turns because people believe that monetary policy has created a cast…
@Scott, Thanks for that insight. I do not follow Chanos so I was not aware of his bearish attitude towards China.
More than three years ago:
http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/16/news/economy/china_chanos/
More than five years ago:
http://www.nytimes…
John's projected 30% downturn in 1-2 years corresponds nicely with the November 2016 elections. Possibly he knows something?
In terms of dates we had the LTCM crisis in 1998, where Wall Street bailed out LTCM. No one learned anything. Bigger bailout…
Chanos has been negative on China for probably about as long as Kyle Bass has been short Japan. They both may eventually be proven right (although I'd think Bass/Japan is considerably more likely) but in the meantime...
"Hey, I'm full of it, but no worries."
I mean, there's a clip with Yellen towards the end of the movie I reference below where she talks about needing to go to an economy that is focused on its resources and operating at full capacity without havin…
I agree with @scott on the valuations of some of these newer offerings. SHAK and LOCO are two examples. This reminds me somewhat of the tech bubble before it burst.
As for SHAK in particular, if someone can look at this and say that that's not lu…
After sleeping on it, it really becomes:
1. I don't like what I am seeing with the almost ridiculous valuation of some private market companies. I do not like what I am seeing with IPOs, which are either being short squeezed to absurd levels (SHAK)…
". . . if you aint cheating, you aint trying.”
@Scott: You then said "I mean, are you kidding me?"
Remember our conversation a few days ago? You thought that I was "making excuses" because humans were involved. To which I replied:
"No "excuses", …
" the concern with GILD is that what is after HCV, those HCV patients will be cured, which is very different from GILD's hiv drugs"
"An estimated 3.2 million people in the United States are infected, but the vast majority of them don’t know it,” Dr…
Is GILD going through the same thing as AAPL where as the hedgies and options people are having effects on the share pricing?
While obviously apples-to-oranges in terms of companies, there have been numerous comparisons between Gilead and Apple (A…
@Scott- When I initiated this post it was with a grin as I said to myself "I wonder how long it will take Scott to comment?".
Well, I think there is understandable upset over corruption, but I think perhaps the bigger issue to me is how pervasive th…
One of these participants was a Vice President at Barclays - someone on CNBC was asking why this person is not being "perp walked". There will be criminal charges filed against these participants, but ultimately it doesn't seem like that will do any…
@Scott- hey man, thanks for your thoughts on this. I'm kicking myself for letting that $100 price get by a while back.
OJ
Who knows, you may see it again with the way things are and how ultimately frustrating Gilead has been as an investment - the …
What's your thought on a high-end value for GILD?
I'd say that 125-130 is a reasonable fair value, although I have seen higher numbers, including S & P Capital IQ, which has a target of $143 and a fair value of $160. M* has a fair value of $11…
Wait a second.
Look at the picture in the link that Skeet provided above of the girl at the beach.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-america-is-forecasting-a-scary-summer-for-the-stock-market-2015-05-18?siteid=yhoof2
Why does the girl have…
LOL, noooo way. Wall Street feeling pressure to be unethical? Perhaps having the government cater to every whim of the banks, actually doing more than a "slap on the wrist" when they are corrupt or not letting them become WAY To Big To Fail might ha…
The Barron's article on ECL in February was very positive and there was a nice entry point at that time. Good choice. I'll check out DHR.
Thanks.
Ecolab works for me for a play on water (they said in the last CC that they were seeing benefit from h…
I have gone with ECL (Ecolab) and Danaher (DHR), both of which are diversified companies that have some exposure to water. Bill Gates owns over 10% of the former and the latter is breaking up (likely next year.)
I have considered water rights plays…
"“the odds that merely having more money will make you happier are pretty close to zero”."
Can I have his, then?
Over the past few years, I've increasingly focused on having a long-term view and preparing for that and being satisfied with that and…
"Jeez, nothing like sarcastic preemption to cloud the facts. "
How about the religious zealot-level of devotion to theory, to the point where anyone who doesn't agree with you is insulted and given a reading list so you can make sure they are prope…
@davidrmoran, like I said I was joking, but I think your view of the national debt is overly simplistic. The government can certainly print the money necessary to pay those debts but to think that will have no economic impact on our children or t…
76% of Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck
http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/24/pf/emergency-savings/
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/03/are-the-suburbs-making-people-live-paycheck-to-paycheck/284586/
http://time.com/2742/nearly-…
Negative interest rates in countries such as Denmark and Switzerland will contribute to the abolition of paper money and a shift towards alternative payment systems..
I fully believe this will happen in due time in the US.
I've been looking for something I'm not into....and came across this fund. I'm not sure what it is......it's Europe, which I like, but what does this thing do? I feel like commodities have bottomed and will rise (Europe). Is this something worthw…
Several years of ZIRP later, we sit here with all this discussion of raising rates and everyone's either freaking out about the idea that easy monetary policy may be removed or going, "Yeah, yeah, BS, we've heard that before." It's a completely unhe…
"You are correct about the Congress not doing anything. They have effectively outsourced their decision making to other like the Fed and they think that they can become Pontious Pilate and wash their hands. "
Saying that they have outsourced their …
"it's true that unlike Congress they at least attempted to do something, untried as it may have been. It may very well prove to have been an exercise in futility, but at least they tried, which is more than I can say for any of the other actors."
Y…
You may be right OJ. I think Scott sees the corrupt system as it is and wishs for a better one. That might be out of our hands. As for playing in a rigged system, I would hope that doesn't mean becoming "one of them".
The problem as I see it is t…
"Our major financial institutions? The government? The Fed? We investors?"
All four. In terms of "investors", I say it as a generalization.
"Misrepresentation, cheating, fraud and outright theft have been so well documented, for so many hundreds …
""You don't have to be an economist to know that this isn't going to end well ... If you see a 500 lb man standing on a street corner, smoking a cigarette and eating a box of donuts, you don't have to be a doctor to know that this isn't going to end…
"It’s interesting that Scott referenced some recent Rothschild happenings. "
RIT Capital Partners was originally part of the Rothschild dynasty as the Rothschild Investment Trust. It then was split off and went public as RIT Capital Partners. See: …
Everyone thought the DXY would go over 100 and then on to 125. Everyone thought the Euro would go to parity then 80. So many people thought oil would go to 30 (shrugs.)
Scott, your own research and DD is good from what I've seen. Ignore the media, it's a time waster.
Thanks. It's not that the media usually bothers me and it's not that there aren't biotech companies that aren't overvalued based on the hopes of poten…
No surprise. We have no plans, can't agree on a street sign much less major infrastructure. We don't face problems in this country until we have to - there's clearly a water crisis in California that isn't going away and people aren't facing. Our in…
