Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Good Q&A.
The May 31 version of GMO's (G = Grantham) asset class forecasts, which are based on annualized, real (after inflation) 7-year returns, show EM stocks at 6.7%, international large at 6.1%, international small at 5.3%, and U.S. high qu…
Reply to @perpetual_Bull: The main, substantive issues the comments brought up were Romick's misunderstanding of what the Fed is doing, and not understanding the concept of crowding out.
You picked two to highlight that didn't hit on those specifi…
Reply to @scott: Well, I don't really partake of CNBC, so maybe I don't even realize how bad it is. I watched it once at a relative's place, and swore it off forever.
BTW, the M* interviewer's name was Esther Pak. I'd like to know where she took he…
Reply to @scott: Sorry, but I'd have to disagree. Most of the comments were about basic economics.
I especially agree with the person who asked for tougher (maybe I'd say more incisive) questioning by the M* hosts - for everybody they interview, no…
Reply to @MikeM: The point might be put a little differently, something like "the role of high quality fixed income is to make you some money, while potentially saving you a lot of money."
On the blended stock-bond portfolio return question, I like…
Reply to @Investor: Right, the ETF isn't a replica, primarily on the derivative front. The stated asset allocation, though, is pretty similar as of 5-31. I switched half of my PTTRX to BOND, and may move the rest, but as of last month, the dividend …
Reply to @msf: Thanks for your posts on this thread, msf. Pimco TR has a headache-inducing set of prospectus limits, and even though I've owned it or one of its clones, and now the ETF, for several years, I can never remember them for more than 5 mi…
Reply to @msf: PTTRX is Pimco Total Return Fund (oddly, doesn't even have the word "bond" in the name), and while Billy the G. is very heavy in Treasuries (including some TIPS) and mortgages these days, he's also got small percentages in (and essent…
Hi Mulder,
It's hard to know what to suggest with the info provided.
What do you want bonds to do in your portfolio? Are they most of your portfolio, and you want them to provide quite a bit of juice, like less risky stocks? Or do you have stock…
New Seafarer info available on the web site: holdings and commentary, May 31 --
http://www.seafarerfunds.com/fund/composition
The fund's had a short term bump lately - the one month return is well ahead of Macsx, for whatever that's worth.
I don't usually agree with MJG all that much, but on the two 'Collapses,' I'll take Jared Diamond, thanks. Two of the main theses in the book/film are that (a) societies collapse when elites become so insulated from the life of normal people that th…
Which Artisan folks, David? If Samra and O'Keefe, I'd ask if they can foresee a day, in Artkx and/or Artgx, when they invest somewhat more broadly in regions they haven't followed very closely to date in their funds (i.e., beyond the U.S., U.K., and…
Reply to @WallStreetRanter: Right; thanks, WSR. So apparently you buy whatever whole motif you want, and then tweak it however you want as you go.
Besides the advantage of tax-liability management, seems like you could also bank a lot of savings o…
Reply to @Maurice: No one said a word about "special tax treatment." The question is whether these things are structured as a single investment (one set of transactions to keep up with & enter on tax forms) versus a pile of individual stock posi…
Hmm. What about tax accounting, assuming a taxable account? I imagine the brokerage is buying/selling shares in all those individual stocks for you, no?
I like the idea a lot & will probably spend some time learning more about it and thinking through how I'd use it. I don't think I'm too hot on the themes they feature on the site (Caffeine Fix? Lots of Likes?), but I can see using it like the ex…
Interesting interview; gives a window into his strategy/thinking - which seems largely longer-term macro-driven, more so than I would have expected. I don't know about the U.S. macro call (housing bottom, consumer spending a strength), but he's done…
The next Luz P. web cast on the DoubleLine web site is next Tuesday, and I'll be more interested to hear it now, seeing this piece on changes in the portfolio. The "especially in Asia" thing would be a pretty big departure, if it's not being exagger…
Reply to @bee: Makes perfect sense, Bee. I wondered if you used other periods to confirm or not, and you explained that too! So yes, I'll test drive your method on a couple of funds over the next little while.
Thanks, and best o' luck out there --…
Bee - question on your Pondx strategy - why three years? I'm thinking I'd like to give it a trial run. I like the idea of Pimco Income as an indicator - as it has a pretty balanced approach to safe and more risky bond types.
I don't have an 'auto-p…
Reply to @Old_Joe: Yah, some definitely are like that, but you may have to do some research to make sure those that advertise as such aren't, um, stretching the truth a bit. One bank in my state still advertises itself as a "community" bank, but the…
Yep, those M* CEF articles that highlight one CEF only sure read like infomercials, and this one is almost transparently off-base.
On the Vietnam article, recall that it's one of Andrew Foster's top country picks.
Reply to @Rbrt: M* portfolio info on Pimco funds is always many months stale. For monthly portfolio updates on Pimco funds, which are about 4-5 days old when they come out, go here: http://investments.pimco.com/Pages/Default.aspx and go to the page…
APPLX and GOODX are fine funds, but they're not pure mid-cap if that's what someone's looking for. They both average out at mid-cap, but actually hold assets up and down the cap ladder. Not a knock, just a portfolio construction consideration ...
Jim Bianco was on WealthTrack this week, and one of his pound-the-table points was the pretty much unprecedented, extremely high correlation among S&P 500 stocks over the last couple of years. If he talked about exactly why that is the case, I m…
I recall there was also a long position in a Mexico ETF in the top 25 holdings, which has now disappeared. I think that was the only macro-ish ex-U.S. long position of any kind in the portfolio last reporting period.
I'm still mildly interested in …
Tip on Barry R's blog: the pieces HE writes are well researched, knowledgeable, and well written. For some reason there's not much oversight or vetting of the other contributors; I've noticed that lately with a few of his irregular posters. BR's wee…
Reply to @scott: I agree with most of what you've said; my comments were mainly about the "trade in your low-yielding bonds for dividend stocks" meme that is expressed somewhere in the financial media nearly every single day.
However, I do have to…
Reply to @scott: Hey Scott, On T's, the obvious and simple thing the "trade in your Treasuries for dividend stocks" people don't acknowledge is that individual investors, and many diversified bond fund managers like Gross and Gundlach, are holding T…
Reply to @scott: I guess the thing I wonder about the initial portfolio is why the fairly long startup process for the fund (after he'd gotten Seafarer Capital organized) wasn't enough time for him to do at least some DD to come up with a somewhat m…
Reply to @scott: I hope I didn't imply that stocks aren't worth owning; I didn't mean that at all. I was a heavily committed stock fan during the foreign-stock runup in the mid-aughts and during the 2009 ff. recovery, and have never been out of them…
Reply to @catch22: Yeah, Catch, old Simon is out there a lot. I rely on a handful of blogs to selectively pick quick links to his and other peoples' work -- otherwise you could spend all your waking hours on this stuff.
On the other thing, I was do…
Appears what the quoted individuals in the "close bond funds" story were really saying is "We've got to get these people to buy our stock funds, with their higher ERs, or our profits and bonuses are going into the toilet!"
Simon Johnson on the JPM fiasco:
http://baselinescenario.com/2012/05/11/jp-morgan-debacle-reveals-fatal-flaw-in-federal-reserve-thinking/
One of the points being that TBTF banks are just TB for people in management to know what's going on ... even…
Good suggestions here already: munis and low-turnover stock in taxable, higher yielding/total return bonds in tax advantaged (Pimco & DoubleLine being two of the poster children on that score) is a standard suggestion for investors a ways from r…
I'd highly recommend Artisan's Samra and O'Keefe. Since their ARTKX is closed, ARTGX is the only option for new investors. Just be aware it's almost 100% developed markets and mostly large cap, and typically owns more in North America than many glob…
Reply to @catch22: Hey Catch,
Right, GDP is never the whole picture of a nation or an economy. I take PK's comment more or less as he states it, that this is a quick look to dispel the notion that Argentina did itself in by giving the IMF et al. th…
Reply to @catch22: Hey Catch, beware of conventional wisdom. Look at the GDP chart near the top of this page, and see if you think Argentina has not set a decent course for itself in the past decade:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/03/down…
I bet Jody is a perfectly nice person if you met her at a coffee shop, but she may have been doomed from the start by her last name to work in financial "services."
