Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Keep in mind that there are other outlooks for U.S. growth and inflation besides the one expressed in the cet article, e.g., the one from the business cycle pros at ECRI.
A current article from The San Francisco Chronicle: No worries about oil or coal-
"The Trump administration has halted an independent scientific study of offshore oil inspections by the federal safety agency created after the 2010 spill in the Gul…
There's probably a good reason that the current administration has been so involved with Russia and the Ukraine: we needed expertise on conversion of our old liberal democratic political system to the new, improved oligarchical model. Whatever they'…
The EM/EM value message comes thru loud and clear, but there are also Exhibits 3 and 4 and JG's explanation of them, which may point to a lot better near future for EAFE than you'd guess from the 7y outlook.
There should be a Grapes of Wrath ETF. It could own farmland, distressed debt, securities of high brow publishers--same as distressed debt--and short the market.
I like it. My first thought was a Tortilla Flat etf, based on the lifestyle and consum…
This is the off-topic section of the site, where Ted posted early this morning about Josh Brown finally getting around to reading East of Eden. Didn't see anything there about a Steinbeck-inspired etf.
@Bee, then I take it you don't normally read Pension Partners; I'll troll around the place and see what I can find. Seems like investment guys into asset rotation, like PP, have some really good insights at times.
Dash of Insight's a good link fest…
@MikeM, I hear you about the alt categories' shortcomings, but I also think 4+ years is more than a brief moment. They're both closed to new investors now, so aren't that plugged up with assets.
(As usual, I reserve the right to change my mind and…
@catch22 , I agree with you. Not my cup of tea either. I don't see how these funds can do anything but stunt the growth of an already well diversified portfolio. But on the other hand, building a portfolio is a personal thing and if they bring more…
Appears that many of the AQR funds are more suited to a down or bear market function.
Take care,
Catch
@Catch, or a flat market, or just generally going for the worthy objective of good risk-adjusted return. I've held the long-short and market-ne…
Hi @Crash, with rising rates, in general, prices fall and yields increase.
As far as HY goes, an old rule of thumb is buy HY at a spread to Treasuries of around 8 and sell around 4 **. If you look at the last ten years on this FRED chart, 8 was w…
Am I the only reader who could not find much plain English in this interview? .... I've eaten bowls of porridge that were less opaque.
Welcome to the El-Erian world, where thought and communication are mush.
The tsar was overthrown/abdicated in March. As to who's celebrating and who's not, I doubt any Romanov descendants threw wild parties this year.
As to what milennials are thinking about "socialism," the model they have in front of them and are resp…
Well, sort of. The S&P is still above all its simple moving averages; may be testing the 20 today.
It's very probable HY and stx will eventually converge, but the recent equity pattern hasn't broken yet, by any means. While credit and equity r…
What could be more of an outsider to the scientific community than a non-scientist? Put Clovis in a room filled with with scientists and he'll be clearly distinguished, er, distinguishable.
Ah yes, a clear objective, impeccably implemented. Fortun…
Well, also check out the American Oversight list here:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-other-huge-scandal-mueller-brought-to-light-this-week/2017/11/01/5e05a458-bf4c-11e7-959c-fe2b598d8c00_story.html
Great fodder for Milbank.
Nice cat…
Art's take is basically consistent with ECRI's. They've put out numerous updates and articles citing the cyclical upturn in leading indicators well before the election, e.g., here.
@Bitzer, AQR LSE and EMN are both closed to new investors anyhow. But fyi, in case they reopen, they were available at Fidelity (and maybe other brokerages, dunno) in IRAs for $2,500 minimum and even less in group retirement accounts. See the Fees &…
“Haven't seen anything on whether she'll stay on as a member, rather than chair.” Not a snowball’s chance. She can probably pick her place anywhere in academia - here or abroad.
Guess we can look forward now to hearing what she'll be doing.
@hank, Yellen's 4y term as chair expires in Feb; she's not being fired or resigning, just not being reappointed for another term -- altho reappointment to a second term has been the pattern. Apparently Mnuchin was a Powell champion and won the day -…
Let's take this to it's logical conclusion. Why stop with "rich people"? Cut taxes for everyone and in no time at all the increased revenue will result in so much revenue we won't know what to do with it all!
Just think what a 0.000000001% flat tax …
Thanks AndyJ ! Where in these reports would it describe income and distribution? I see yields, NAVs, Total returns but not Income/expense info.
Not sure which report you're looking at, but it's apparently not the one I'm referring to. It's called "U…
I agree but I do not think that is the general opinion of most people and financial advisers and certainly not what is in most advertisements for mutual funds. M* ratings are usually the only featured information piece of any fund ad. Most people t…
Zippy, are you aware of the monthly Pimco earnings reports on its CEFs? They're the best real-time info on NII and UNII, which can give out early hints of trouble covering dividends with the income the funds earn. I don't know if they would've helpe…
Can't open it, but if the quoted text is indicative of what's in the article, all the analysis shows is that mean reversion is alive and well at some level - not exactly a brilliant revelation.
The comment by M* about its star ratings is correct; t…
A different take on the mini-selloff, focusing on PCI: the thesis is that slight ticks down in the rate of NAV appreciation were the trigger. (Could apply to most Pimco CEFs.) The author traces the phenom back a few months.
Imho, it's a little hard…
"Actually Ted... the Powers That Be prefer an introduction or some comment within the post, not from the linked article, but from the original poster. I remember you agreed to this, and it was part of a settlement regarding some members objecting to…
Something to add to the reading list: a good article from Alpha Gen Cap on Pimco CEFs: see the part about GAAP accounting's limited applicability to funds that are more total return-oriented/positioned, e.g., with big slugs of non-agency mortgages .…
@davidmoran, two things:
(1) Some investors have had Pim multisector CEFs in general close to hair trigger for a few months now, because the monthly UNII/earnings reports have been showing lower distribution coverage - and this month's (which came…
The Bhansali-Foster interview is right up there with Consuelo's best.
I'd look at PBS World; it's the earliest & most convenient broadcast in my part of the country. Of course WT's also online, no weird broadcast times to deal with.
To add something a little different -- for measuring the health of an economy from the residents' POV -- GNP is supposed to get at it better than GDP. Krugman wrote about it in the case of Puerto Rico recently, and more in detail, in a piece about I…
