Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
As nasty as this selloff has been, I'm waiting for support that holds and an uptick over a target (e.g., 20d ma at minimum) before re-entering Pimco CEFs. Falling knives can be dangerous. (The formerly huge premia must be responsible for the differe…
>> Hard to believe Powell came out of the same candidate universe as Zinke, Pruitt, and DeVos.
cuz he didn't, not at all
Meaning of course, that he was on the lists of the Trumpsters like the Deplorable 3 were, not that he's equivalent to the…
The simplest explanation of what the Fed (not just Powell) is doing is adhering to their mandate as best they can. I don't know how anybody can listen to Powell's news conference and come to any other conclusion. The "market" can guess all it wants;…
That's the first time I've heard them express fundamental disagreement over much of anything. The interview's pretty good for hearing both points of view.
Yeah, when I think of UCB, what immediately comes to mind are all those commies in the world-class departments/schools/colleges of architecture, English, engineering (civil, chemical, electrical, mechanical), physics, astronomy, business, finance, s…
Maybe a way to turn this thread into something worthwhile would be to share whose outlooks we find useful. Here goes, from my POV, pretty much the only ones I pay any attention to:
* Hyman and McLennan, annual U.S. and global outlook interviews wit…
Saved; thanks, Bee, that's a thorough piece. For those who're still able to use Schedule A, there's also a link within the article to a good, thorough page on the changes effective in tax year 2018.
He's got a webcast coming up on the 11th. Like all of his 'casts, it's ostensibly about one of the Dbline oef's, DBLTX in this case, but he always spends most of the time on macro, econ indicators, and the direction of different debt classes. Since …
Thanks for the reply, David. Sometimes it takes a fair bit of perseverance to figure out fund and manager history and the other important details, and I appreciate the time you must put in doing that research for the benefit of all of us here.
Bes…
Just doing a little research on the RiverPark CMBS fund David profiled under "Your 2019 funds watchlist," and the fund history seems a little sketchy, or maybe just poorly reported/covered by the usual online suspects.
The fund's own fact sheet sho…
One recent development is encouraging: at least something approaching the 'normal' negative price correlation between safer rate-sensitive debt and equities is back, as is the positive correlation between risky credit and equities. (No telling how s…
Good article. Pitches for annuity sales events, along with those for hearing aids and car/home/health insurance, plus the seasonal specialty -- partisan screed election mailers -- make up the bulk of the paper portion of the recycling I'm taking to …
So essentially similar strategy to GMO which so far has NOT worked. We shall see.
Are you referring to the 7y GMO forecasts? That's not the way they invest in all their products.
On the same page with @rforno here as regards Arnott. I once owned PAAIX, the sister fund to PAUIX minus the forever-S&P short, but neither of them were in any meaningful way "tactical," as the category implies. Both have been long EM assets of …
Fidelity lets you designate one of their safer MM funds as your "core position," which is the position $ from buys and sells is deducted from and added to -- fundamentally equivalent to a sweep, I guess, but no transfers after transactions required …
M* doesn't differentiate between core and core-plus, a clear and imho necessary distinction among rate-sensitive intermediate funds. I doubt Eric J. could accurately say that the fund has "historically produced more risk than most peers" if M* ackn…
Since 10/1, equities are off 8-14%, HY -3%, IG -1%, while IOFIX, even after yesterday’s move, is -1.0%. Hopefully [IOFIX] can get that back soon.c
IOFIX got some of that (4c) back Wednesday. If Tuesday's dump was in the mode of the usual pattern of…
Here's another current article from the San Francisco Chronicle regarding PG&E's possible future:
Can PG&E survive the Camp Fire?
Handy, factual article. Can't help thinking this is among the first of what eventually will be many similar un…
Anna, he saw some firefighters using fire rakes (not garden/leaf rakes) clearing a break near the perimeter of the fire, didn't notice the other equipment that was undoubtedly there or nearby (chainsaws and pulaskis and shovels, and if the terrain w…
Thanks, @Old_Joe. Wow, poor ratepayers, poor California. (A friend lost her home and essentially everything in the Thomas fire last year. I can't imagine the collective pain being felt in all those wildfire areas.)
And I (along with many fellow cit…
Don't utilities routinely carry insurance for outages and disasters? Or are they just trying to pay for what the insurance won't cover? Man, I'm not sure I'd want to be a PG&E ratepayer in the age of wildfire disasters. (But then I've never actu…
This is a pretty good chart talk from a guy with Cornerstone Macro, a group I've found to be pretty sound on econ and financial analysis. Note he's talking 'quality' outperforming -- sometimes a last gasp up at the end of a cycle.
Another bit of in…
JENSX, Jensen Quality Growth estimate = $2.904 =~ 5.7% long term at the current price, less than a penny short term. 12/7 ex & pay.
Wuh-woh. Updated estimate = long term $3.945, or ~ 8%.
I wonder if article was written before the correction in October. Small caps we’re outperforming through September but have faltered badly over the past few months.
It's dated Nov 1, last Thursday. Maybe the assignment goes back to before the sellof…
Hey Crash, ignore the subtext and focus on Mike's suggestion. Anytime you wonder about a fund's performance vs. the market, first order of biz is to look at individual holdings. Also, sector concentrations can sometimes help suss out the differences…
Leuthold's zeroing in on the zone several other observers have pointed to as a likely candidate for the trigger for the next big blowup -- corporates at the lower end of investment grade. (Moody's Baa is equivalent to S&P and Fitch's BBB, which …
So perhaps every quarter when you adjust your allocation to bring it to par you take money out.
2019 will be my first year at RMDs, and for right now anyway, that's the basic plan.
Funny how things change sometimes. Never thought that I'd be wishing for a return of ol' GWB instead of what we've got now.
@OJ, once in a while that thought crosses my mind too, and then I recall that it was a package deal that included Dark Lord C…
@VF: I tried to do 3 primary with different % in retirement account. I think its being a retirement account that's causing me grief./blockquote>
Several years ago, at least, that was the case at V. They wouldn't let me set up a TOD on an IRA at …
A valuable perspective from Mark Headley: he mentions pretty much all the disparate things we hear and read about China, in context and through his (newly) more independent point of view.
Have to agree with @AndyJ about the length of games. I have been taping playoff games and then fast-forwarding between pitches, pitching changes, and between innings. At one point I had David Price taking 30-40 seconds between pitches. I thought MLB…
