Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
@sma3 "Texas at least, can claim their economic interests are at stake, although with the huge wind and solar arrays there, they will probably do pretty well with renewable energy. "
Are you implying Texas has huge solar & wind projects at thi…
Well, that was an interesting one. Are we past peak rate volatility? Yes. Will the 2y Treasury hit 5%? Two no, one yes. Are we past peak inflation? Three yes.
Getting into longer duration IG seemed to be the most agreed-upon good move, and B. Am. M…
Also keep in mind annual charitable contributions & gifts to family & friends.
+1. Consider also (if you haven't yet) a Qualified Charitable Distribution from an IRA, which reduces the amount taxable from an RMD. It's a good deal for those o…
The Seven Year War precipitated a change in the world balance of power that eventually paved the way for the United States to emerge. It was a hell of a lot more than the "French and Indian War".
F&I as it's commonly called in N. America, Seven …
Maybe a couple of the Secret Service guys involved in deleting phone records of Jan 6 can get concurrent sentences and serve 'em out with the Dumpster.
That's an all-time favorite of mine *. I own a grand total of five DVDs or sets, and it's one of them. BBC did a series of it way back, 1971, as a Masterpiece Theater that was good for the time, but the D.D. Lewis film is terrific. Like so many movi…
Is there good reasons to go longer duration treasury beyond 52 weeks, in light of the current yield curve?
Good question, @Sven: getting the best yield even if shorter term, vs. maybe locking in a decent yield, if not the highest, for longer, vs. …
Yes, thanks to Yogi and everybody for making this such a great place to hang out and exchange thoughts and ideas, facts and articles, and even a few laughs.
and duh
https://slate.com/business/2022/11/turkey-prices-thanksgiving-inflation-farm-bureau-debunked-wrong.html
And Eyewitless News reports it breathlessly.
A key passage from PK's piece David linked:
I show rates of rent growth over a three-month period, a practice many economists have converged on in recent discussions: Monthly data are too noisy, but annual growth rates lag too far behind a rapidly …
"The 2% target is not realistic today."
My guess is final range of 3-4.5%. That would allow Fed nice range of "dry powder" to decrease rates if necessary to offset future financial problems. What the Fed says and what it really thinks may be two sl…
Ha, @Crash! You beat me to it, even with my time zone advantage.
A few notes: Good back & forth on HY: Spreads are surprisingly narrow now (in the 400s bp): is the market getting ahead of the situation or just pricing in a cushy-soft landing? D…
It may be a good idea politically, but the time to get a team organized and rolling will probably introduce a significant delay in the process. The Georgia state case will be way, way ahead of the federal case and likely a better chance at achieving…
I read somewhere that a ballot measure passed by the voters earlier created the non-partisan redistricting commission that de-gerrymandered the state, and that had a lot to do with the two-house sweep. Got some smart voters there.
Nov. 11 edition here.
All three guests think the peak yield this year for the 10y Treasury is already in, and agree with the consensus of a 50 bp Fed rate rise in December. Some talk of scaling back expectations a bit for the presumed Fed's termina…
Saw a brief P. McCully interview a couple of weeks ago. His thinking at the time was that there's a good chance the bond-buying flood gates will open and knock down yields (didn't opine on which ones) as more dovish Fedspeak debuts in December.
Th…
That's a reasonable refinement from PK today. Annualized 3m wage growth as a measure of underlying inflation makes sense ... and it's telling the same story as the CPI since July.
I wouldn't think twice about crypto but for the fact that the participants are keeping coal-fired power plants running to feed their ridiculous energy-hog games. One in my state was in the first stage of shutdown, but the void boyz bought it and kee…
@Yogi, the page I linked also has a simple M-O-M chart for 2022, near the bottom of the page; yep, it's noisy from one month to the next. July was very slightly negative, and it's kind of arresting to see it displayed that way after the leaps earlie…
Good FRED chart from Yogi. Inflation turned in mid-summer; the year-over-year comparison doesn't pick up the magnitude of the change, given that it still includes very high months, e.g., when month-over-month jumps were a full percent or more, from …
Nov. 4 edition here. Participants agree on 5% Fed rate peak; no HY default spike in sight; looking for another bump up in HY spreads but disagreement on the level; IG debt is interesting at this level; soft landing still possible, but policy lag cre…
@dtconroe: +1. Just to be clear, I don't have a timeframe in mind; just making the point that while bond funds are still getting beaten up, and nobody knows what's going to happen when, there's no reason to completely dismiss them forever. Last post…
Sven: "Pimco bond funds have a considerable outflow, billions !"
Yes, and I was one of the sellers; got rid of my last shares of a Pimco bond fund on January 25. That move didn't mean I'd never buy into one again, under different circumstances. Lat…
The market conditions during GFC is quite different from today.
Hi @Sven. Of course; no two periods are exactly alike. But there's every reason to think there will likely be assets at fire sale prices that good managers can jump on. I agree in the…
I think for those who have some history investing in funds, I wouldn't write them off. For some years at the end of the GFC, good active management houses did very, very well, like up to 20% a year, a la Pimco Income. I'll be watching houses like Pi…
Yesterday, CME FedWatch wasn’t updated fully. Today, it is showing hikes of 50-50-25-25 (and moving around that) to the fed fund terminal rate of 5.25-5.50%. ....
This is a good reminder to the 'Treasury & CD' crew (me included) to keep planning…
