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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    I've learned to expand my definition of alternative funds. I look at PVCMX as an alt fund in that it uses cash for defense - in a manner quite different from most other funds (thus the ALT view).
    Low SD of 5, with a 7.84% 5 yr return. It's worst quarter in 5 years was -(1.83%).
    I had purchased QQMNX recently as well, but that's it for market neutral funds. It will sit alongside HMEZX, RSIVX, WBALX, CBUDX, CBLDX. Low SD grinders that I hope get me close to 7% annually.
    Many true ALT funds are finicky.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    BB: "How often do you run the fund screener even if your current holdings are performing to your satisfaction?
    FD: My simpler original system says run it every 4-6 months regardless of anything and select the best risk/reward funds.
    My newer trading system since 2017 with emphasis on making 3% over inflation and never losing more than 3% from any last top has more moving parts. I have 3-4 lists (Multi, HY Muni, Bank loans, others) of my best ideas already. I looked at these lists once a week. I run a generic screener at least once a month, maybe a miss fund.
    If my funds are doing fine, like this year, I get lazy for weeks.
    BB: What vehicles are available if you do not want to trade but want to make 2-3% + inflation?
    FD: the only ones I'm willing to use are special bond funds and that's why I spatialized in these categories. I'm not willing to lose more than 3%. Others may be comfortable with losing 10-20%. I'm looking for bond funds with low SD. Over a year ago, we discussed CBLDX,RSIIX/RSIVX and I posted they are a longer hold, maybe years.
    It's never going to be an easy task.
    Sure, you can buy VOO and go to sleep...or...PRWCX.
    Lastly, that is an exercise I use. Suppose all my money is in cash, what would be my best 2-3 funds to buy now? The answer is exactly what I do. That releases me from any commitment or being sorry.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    I'm just looking for some things to beat SPAXX

    My goodness. No jumping needed. Any of the Riverpark or Crossbridge funds have been doing that since the start of 2023 with the smoothest ride you can ask for (RSIVX, CBLDX for example). Heck, even the ultra-conservative RPHYX has done as well or better than CDs and MMs. Take a look at CSOAX/CSOIX for another smooth ride with a bit more horsepower. 5-star and a great owl fund. I'm sure there are many other examples too.
    MM's, treasuries and CD's have been great if you want zero risk, and that is understandable for many here. But more lucrative options may have opened up many many months ago.

    I'm already underwater with CBLDX.
    I have a limited appetite for junk.
    @WABAC You seem to have as good a handle on bonds as anyone here. So surprised by your comment on CBLDX. On a total return basis it is at an all time high. Or am I missing something. I hold a position in CBLDX as a sub for cash - at least for now.
    https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=CBLDX
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    I'm just looking for some things to beat SPAXX

    My goodness. No jumping needed. Any of the Riverpark or Crossbridge funds have been doing that since the start of 2023 with the smoothest ride you can ask for (RSIVX, CBLDX for example). Heck, even the ultra-conservative RPHYX has done as well or better than CDs and MMs. Take a look at CSOAX/CSOIX for another smooth ride with a bit more horsepower. 5-star and a great owl fund. I'm sure there are many other examples too.
    MM's, treasuries and CD's have been great if you want zero risk, and that is understandable for many here. But more lucrative options may have opened up many many months ago.
    I'm already underwater with CBLDX.
    I have a limited appetite for junk.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    I'm just looking for some things to beat SPAXX
    My goodness. No jumping needed. Any of the Riverpark or Crossbridge funds have been doing that since the start of 2023 with the smoothest ride you can ask for (RSIVX, CBLDX for example). Heck, even the ultra-conservative RPHYX has done as well or better than CDs and MMs. Take a look at CSOAX/CSOIX for another smooth ride with a bit more horsepower. 5-star and a great owl fund. I'm sure there are many other examples too.
    MM's, treasuries and CD's have been great if you want zero risk, and that is understandable for many here. But more lucrative options may have opened up many many months ago.
  • BONDS The week that was....w/e November 15 Bond investing/herding cats is challenging, going forward

    Every year I find plenty of opportunities, see a chart of THOPX,NVHIX/NVHAX,RSIVX/RSIIX,BND (https://schrts.co/bAbYcJwv)
    What is wrong with making 8+% in 2024 with low volatility?

    FYI, John Miller has stepped down as the head of Nuveen’s municipal-bond investments, ending a nearly three-decade career at the money-management firm where he oversaw $188 billion and ran NVHAX and NHMAX, funds focused on high yield state and local government securities.
    He is now the head of First Eagle's municipal bond shop and manages FDUAX and FEHAX since January 2, 2024.
  • BONDS The week that was....w/e November 15 Bond investing/herding cats is challenging, going forward
    As someone who makes most of his money in bonds I never understood why look mostly at high rated bond funds. I want my funds to have a good risk/reward and the above don't do that. Higher-rated bonds have the highest correlation to rates with high volatility.
    More than a year ago I posted about 3 good funds managed by David K. Sherman
    RPHIX,CBLDX,RSIIX and can be held another 2 years while rates go down. The first one is the closest bond fund for a cash "sub".
    The other 2 are very good generic bonds with yield about 7-8% + low duration. This combo proved to be much better. See the chart (https://schrts.co/XqbrJhJz).
    Every year I find plenty of opportunities, see a chart of THOPX,NVHIX/NVHAX,RSIVX/RSIIX,BND (https://schrts.co/bAbYcJwv)
    What is wrong with making 8+% in 2024 with low volatility?
    BTW, the above is a good reason for me to hardly ever hold for years a typical HY bond fund. Again, high volatility + yield lower than CBLDX,RSIIX.
  • A Conservative portfolio design
    Shooting for 7% returns over time, but with very low volatility (SD). I am considering the following allocation:
    PHEFX 15%
    FMSDX 15%
    CBLDX 15%
    SWHFX 10%
    PVCMX 10%
    HMEZX 10%
    HELO 10%
    PRPFX 5%
    LCORX 5%
    RSIVX 5%
    Can you do better? Please share your ideas.

    As my CDs mature, I am considering the following low volatility allocation for my retirement portfolio :
    HELO 10%
    ICMUX 25%
    PRCFX 25%
    QQMNX 15%
    RCTIX 25%
    Two of the funds are fairly new, HELO and PRCFX, but they are run by excellent and very experienced managers.
    Available PV data over the past eight months is as follows:
    Total Return = 9%
    Std Deviation = 2.8%
    Sharpe Ratio= 2.8
    Sortino Ratio = 4.8
    Can I do better, JD? I don't know, just sharing my ideas.
    But, good luck.
  • A Conservative portfolio design
    Shooting for 7% returns over time, but with very low volatility (SD). I am considering the following allocation:
    PHEFX 15%
    FMSDX 15%
    CBLDX 15%
    SWHFX 10%
    PVCMX 10%
    HMEZX 10%
    HELO 10%
    PRPFX 5%
    LCORX 5%
    RSIVX 5%
    Can you do better? Please share your ideas.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Thanks @Junkster. I really appreciate your input. Out of all the options you mentioned, DHEAX strikes my fancy. I have to say, you sure do find the smooth trending funds, but I know that is your forte. I invested in CSOAX a few months ago. I know it is labeled HY by M*, but it has strategic in its name, so I'm guessing, hoping, it adjusts to changing conditions. I also started buying IGIB to get some intermediate corporate bond exposure, but that trend, though positive lately, is pretty bumpy. I've held the more conservative RPHYX, RSIVX and FLRN in my conservative withdrawal bucket for a while now.
    I haven't closed a post with this in a while, but it is getting to that time... GO BILLS.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Looking to replace MMKT funds and still try for 5% per year after rates are reduced, with low volatility. RSIVX (RSIIX)and RPHYX (RPHIX) are getting initiated, and will sit next to HMEZX and CBLDX. Boring is desirable in this bucket.
    The Fed should just leave the darn rates alone.
  • Trump Sits Down With Businessweek
    First of all….sorry @hank…..I oftentimes get you and @Crash mixed up in my brain for some reason reason. It was Crash’s post that he since deleted. So sorry!!! @Crash, your post DID have some good investing stuff in it, you’re right.
    Second of all, I think many of us can be disappointed that the parties we have so long known no longer exist, as they have been taken over by individuals or families and dominated (Clinton’s and Obamas of Democratic Party, and Bush’s and now Trump’s of Republican Party). Most of us vote for the party that upholds the core handful of things that we believe in, with the other stuff that we DONT believe in being not enough to make us vote for “the other guy” (and hopefully, “girl” someday soon!). Last piece of politicking, I promise :)
    I don’t know how de-globalization, stopping the mass border crossings (a supply of cheap, “pay under the table,” labor) and “making things with that beautiful ‘Made in America’ stamp” aren’t inflationary. Combined with pressure put on the Fed to lower interest rates, where will that leave our economy?
    I watch way too much CNBC (it’s usually on as background noise), but Cramer was saying how the Russell 2K can’t handle billions and trillions rotating out of tech/growth because the market cap of the entire index is a mere percentage of a single Mag 7 stock. So they cannot be market leaders by themselves. LC value could be….maybe betting on the next trillion dollar market cap stock? LLY, BRK, JPM are close (above $500 billion).
    @BaluBalu, what do you mean “Energy Services” stocks? SLB and HAL (sorry for the ignorance), or pipelines/drilling stocks? Good point that increased supply will mean lower prices (good for consumer, arguably, but less good for energy stocks). Maybe energy transportation stocks, as the US would likely be exporting more energy (especially LNG). I have held in the past OKE (but sold about $20 lower price! *face palm*), ENB, WMB, KMI. Pipeline companies trade more correlated to oil than they probably should. But these are NOT K-1 issuing companies.
    I think defense stocks would do ok, even with the ending of war, as munition stocks would be replenished from the drawdowns from supplying Ukraine, and continued high military spending; maybe an increase in supplying Israel with military “stuff.”
    Utilities have been a mixed bag the last week or so, as the winners of the AI-linked energy supply, such as VST or CEG (and NEE, but that’s more green energy) have gone down as much or more than big tech. And I believe these are some of the more nuclear utility companies; you would think the new administration would be ok with nuclear power (maybe it’s “down with everything that’s considered alternative energy”).
    As far as fixed income, I’m not playing a drop in rates yet (as the market moves interest rates more than the Fed does anyways), other than potentially getting out of money markets. I continue to use preferreds (several that are floating rate, such as mREIT preferreds) and baby bonds, CLO ETFs (JAAA, JBBB, CLOZ…..thanks to multiple posters here for teaching me about them), and the low volatility mutual funds that @junkster and @FD1000 and others like (RSIVX, RCRFX/RCRIX, and a few others) that either don’t move or go up a penny every 5-10 days or so. I have been burned by income CEFs too many times to count; their yield is great, and if they traded like their NAV, then they would be amazing investments, but alas, their prices swing wildly. If I want to lose money, I would be better off swing trading the 3x tech ETPs hahaha. So I’m staying mostly away from bond CEFs and core/core-plus/multisector bond OEFs too.
    For my wife’s 401(a) she DCAs into once a month, her two biggest holdings are DODGX and HACAX (Harbor’s LCG). They’re about an equal allocation, and they take turns going up (or down) more than the other. I got her out of her small cap value holding there about 2 weeks before the meteoric rise over the last 7-10 days (“I’m an excellent market timer”), and I also have a workplace retirement account from my current employer that I cant add to, and is limited to OEFs only. In that account I am WAY overweight LC growth and tech (I am 47, though so I can be, hopefully?) and only hold a tracking amount of @stillers favorite AUERX as my only SC holding. I WILL talk up a fund that MFO has talked about in the past: FAMEX, a MC blend/value fund that is a long term winner, and is the number 2 holding in that account (a distant 2nd to PRWCX; can’t believe my good fortune that I got into that fund before it closed!).
    Apologies for the last paragraph: it went off topic for this thread.
    I will continue to favor big tech for longer term returns, and the high quality of the companies. Most even pay a dividend now (even if a pittance). Maybe an equal weight in both LC growth and LC value would be a good way to play the next several months, rather than holding the S&P 500 index (which is basically LCG)? Or a quality fund, like @davidrmoran and several others like (including me; I own GQEPX and some accounts I manage have QLTY).
    Apologies for the length of my post….sheesh. And apologies for the kerfluffle from my earlier post (AND FOR MISTAKEN IDENTITY!)!!
  • Thoughts on PSTL, O and PFE?
    @poptart
    If you are looking at REITs for income (which aren’t qualified dividends) for your parents, there are several CLO ETFs (I know that acronym is kind of a dirty word) that pay 6-8% and have had steady performance in ‘22-23 (some of them are newer than that but still have had good performance since they listed): JAAA (AAA CLOs have not had a down year, per the ETF sponsor), JBBB and CLOZ (theses are BBB CLOs but have 7-9% yields), and you can search for other CLO ETFs that are out there. I own the 3 I mentioned, and they parallel RSIVX/CLBDX for steady performance plus good income spit out.
    EDIT: I guess @msf showed that REIT income is not fully taxable (skipped over that post). Sorry. But above still holds true if taxes are not a worry. Plus, REITs are in a multi-year rough patch until rates come down (and they will likely only come down significantly once economic weakness hits, which will likely also hit REITs).
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    Beer googles?
    I doubt Cinnamond ever finds much of any kind of equity that measures up to his standard. He won't even commit to the equities he does like.
    Meanwhile, the managers you've never heard of that run VSMIX manage to find a few things worth buying--as do many others.
    Throw PVCMX in with conservative allocation funds, like AONIX or FASIX, and he looks pretty good, despite the price.
    Shoot, the standard deviation on the fund is right between RSIVX and OSTIX on my watch list, the beta is lower, and five year returns are better than either. That's nothing to sneeze at.
    But that's not his shtick. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  • QDSNX - A Fund for Retirees?
    @fred495, to add to the conversation and add to your post, which I think is a good one, I'm wondering if others, especially those near or in retirement, own or are looking at alternative type 'absolute return' funds in their portfolio. I actually like the idea of some percentage of these to smooth out the ride. Problem (maybe) is that there are so many in the alternative section to choose and they can be vastly different.
    So, I'll give the ones I'm using. If others want to chime in that would be great.
    I hold:
    JHQAX, at about 10%, an options fund recently discussed in this month's commentary by @Devo
    BLNDX/REMIX at about 5%, a multi asset fund, labeled as a L/S by M* (I don't agree)
    LCR, which can be closer to a balanced fund, at about 5%
    By the way, to give an opinion on your starting post, I do thing QDSNX would be as good a choice as others available to accomplish the "smoother" portfolio ride.

    @MikeM - those are great ideas for the "smoother ride" approach. I have a few more suggestions:
    -PSFF - FOF for options - prefer it to JHQAX, but really the same space.
    -RSIVX Lower SD than LCR, but also lower Returns. Very conservative.
  • "Market bulls won't get a 'wall of cash'"
    PVCMX quacks like an allocation fund to me. The fund has never held more than 17% stocks.
    The stock sleeve just happens to be in SCV. The bonds are in T-Bills, and then there is a MMF and some gold and silver. So it came through 2022 in the green. For my money, so did IYK and FSUTX.
    If standard deviation is your thing, PVCMX rocks at 3.26 for the last three years. RSIVX has outperformed it with an SD of 2.72. But you would have lost money in 2022.
  • Bond funds to invest in now?
    I posted months ago since 2023 and in the beginning of the 2024 about 3 bond funds that should have a good risk-adjusted performance for 2024.
    RPHIX for "sub" MM and a possible 5-6% in 2024
    CBLDX with higher volatility, but still low and higher performance and a possible 6-8% in 2024.
    RSIIX/RSIVX with higher volatility, but still low and higher performance and a possible of 7-9% in 2024.
    The chart below already proves my point. Why use
    Multi=PIMIX or HY or high-rated bonds with a lot more volatility and be close or not at year end.
    https://schrts.co/xiyUJkXx
    Sometimes it is that easy. YTD RSIIX is already at 2.7% per M* and a good possibility to make over 10%.
  • Bond funds to invest in now?
    As CDs and treasuries have matured or have been called, I have been adding that money to existing bond fund holdings, RSIVX and CSOAX.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    CDs?
    Sure for many, never for me because a good trader can do more.
    For months now I posted about the following 3 funds from less risky/volatile to more RPHIX,CBLDX,RSIIX/RSIVX.
    One year chart shows the results.
    https://schrts.co/REtABeZs.
    And 2024 would continue to deliver much better results than CDs with low volatility.
    And yes, I know, CDs are guaranteed with no volatility but if I can make much more with bond funds and reduce my stock portion by a lot, it suites my needs.
    So, goals and style matter.
    BTW, this thread is about EM, why discuss CDs or bonds.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    Adding to Pressup's comment: The adulation for CDs is turning into lost opportunity cost in hindsight. Not the once in a lifetime proclaimed by some. Take a MFO favorite RSIVX bond fund for example: up +9.3% the past year. 3.4% in the past 3 months. Even the very conservative RPHYX (discussed as a cash alternative) is up 5.7% 1y and 1.6% 3mo.
    @MikeM, seems to me that depends on how comfortable you are with where you want to be. Some folks might feel the need to accumulate more. Some folks might be fine with where they are. Everyone has their own mode of travel.
    Everyone should check their arithmetic periodically.