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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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David Snowball's December Commentary Is Now Available

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  • @MFO Members: Bumped to the top
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Thanks, Ted.

    Thanks, too, for the heads-up on the Steadman Funds. He really was a visionary (how many people would devote a fund to ocean nodule mining ... oh, wait! The same folks who'd imagine a fund devoted to 3D printing!) and a crackpot.

    I think the bitcoin piece was worth writing, and might be worth reading. It's easy for most of us to shake our heads, mumble about tulip bulbs and move on. It's likely important, though, to anticipate how we might be affected by the securitization of bitcoin speculation: that is, what happens when average investors are tempted into moving parts of actual portfolios in ETFs tied to bitcoin derivatives? What happens when institutional investors follow the same path? It now looks like the window for answering such questions is no more than 18 months and might well be "sometime in 2018".

    It's interesting to watch the evolution of Rondure and the continued strength of their partner, Grandeur Peak. They do offer some credibility for the case that (a) true talent is rare and (b) true talent exists.

    I'm a bit sad that the team at Sentinel Balanced wasn't transferred to Touchstone Balanced; I have a nice "left behind by Morningstar" profile of the fund written, and was just waiting for the transition of ownership to close before sharing it. It may turn out to be a fine new fund, but it really becomes a new fund now rather than a star in the shadows. The equity sleeve seems more promising than the income sleeve, so we'll wait and watch. The Small Cap and International funds, though, seem worth more immediate attention.

    More than a bit sad at the closure of the Croft funds. Good people and a good longer term record who seem to have been undone by this last, least rational phase (umm, the long-term average p/e in the stock market is about 15, the average p/e for our more conservative slice - large cap value funds - today is 23).

    And really quite sad about losing the Amazon relationship. In round figures, that's $7000/year that just vanished. If we move to their Amazon Smiles program instead, those same purchases would net us a cool $550 instead. And we're not signing-on to commercial clutter in what I think of as "the last quiet spot" on the web. Nuts.

    Ed continues to think interesting thoughts, and listening to people that most of us miss. Charles continues rewiring the system behind the scenes. Chip continues to make it all appear, and appear effortless. I'm deeply grateful to them all.

    And to you.

    David
  • TedTed
    edited December 2017
    @David: Sorry to hear about Amazon. Also
    7:23AM Flag
    For what interest it holds, here's our October 2107 Elevator Talk with manager Ryan Caldwell.

    7:29AM edited 7:29AM Flag
    @MFO Members: Here's David's October 2017, back to the future, Elevator Talk with Ryan Caldwell.
    Regards,
    Ted:)
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2017/10/elevator-talk-ryan-caldwell-chiron-capital-allocation-fund-ccapx/
  • Really enjoyed it David. Especially the article titled "There’s no idea so dumb that it won’t attract a dozen ETFs."
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