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The Btrakfast Briefing: U.S. Stocks Struggle To Resume Record Run As Traders Wait For Trump’s Speech
In checking the markets this morning as I write Asia-Pacific is mixed with China and Japan being up Europe is mostly up with the exception being Germany. In the States stocks look to be down and government bonds flat to up. The three leading sectors yesterday in the 500 Index were energy, financials and real estate. The three leading commodities this morning are lumber, feeder cattle and live cattle. For the latest data you might wish to check the links below because often times things change throughout the day.
Yesterday, Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James posted his weekly commentary which I feel is worth the read. Its theme ... is that ... it is sometimes best to just sit.
In addition, Brian Gilmartin of Trinity Asset Management published a piece titled "Financial Sector Estmates Still Show Favorable Trends" that is well worth the read. Seems, there are some revisions already taking place within forward estimates.
Old_Skeet's market barometer still has a read of 131 indicating that the 500 Index is overbought. I wonder how the markets will be effected tomorrow after President Trump's speach this evening? And, I am indeed looking to see what the resulting barometer reading will be. It is interesting that all of the feeds are at (or below) their floor scoring readings with the exception being earnings. The earnings feed is comprised of both reported TTM earnings and forward estimates so if forward estimates get revised downward this will indeed have a negative impact on the feed's reading as well as faltering reported earnings. The barometer has a floor reading of 120 and a ceiling reading of 180. So, you can see we are currently well into the overbought zone and 11 points from the barometer's floor reading of 120. Please remember, a lower reading indicates there is less value to had in the 500 Index while a higher reading indicates more value. The zone indicators on the barometer are overbought, overvalued, fair value, undervalued, and oversold. Currently, 131 scores as overbought with the other feeds at or below their floor readings. With this, the strong earnings feed reading is all that is keeping the current barometer reading off it's floor. For me, this indicates the market is indeed extended and I look for a nearterm pullback and/or some sideways range bound price movement within the Index. I'm thinking that the markets are looking for a good message from our President this evening and this is currently already priced into stock market valuations. I see the markets as being very vunerable at this time!
As in the card game of bridge ... Anybody wanting to double?
For me, I going with Jeffrey Saut's sugguestion ... "I'm just going to sit" as I am towards the upper limit within my asset allocation for equities along with I am thinking that the stock market will continue to climb the earnings wall although there could be a nearterm pullback. Got some cash and will most likely become a buyer of stocks in a stock market pullback perhaps to the upper limit of their allocation within my portfolio. But, I need to see the barometer score some good value can be had first. That would take one heck of a movement on the barometer.
The primary reason that I am overweight equities, at this time, is because of a seasonal investment strategy that I follow where I load equities in the fall and generally keep their weighting towards their upper limit within my equity allocation until spring. I then begin a process to trim equities back towards a more normal weighting. March historically has offered up some good returns for stocks so, at this time, I going with the calendar over the barometer.
Thanks for stopping by.
Have a great day ... and, most of all ... I wish all "Good Investing."
Comments
In checking the markets this morning as I write Asia-Pacific is mixed with China and Japan being up Europe is mostly up with the exception being Germany. In the States stocks look to be down and government bonds flat to up. The three leading sectors yesterday in the 500 Index were energy, financials and real estate. The three leading commodities this morning are lumber, feeder cattle and live cattle. For the latest data you might wish to check the links below because often times things change throughout the day.
http://markets.wsj.com/usoverview
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
Yesterday, Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James posted his weekly commentary which I feel is worth the read. Its theme ... is that ... it is sometimes best to just sit.
https://www.raymondjames.com/wealth-management/market-commentary-and-insights/investment-strategy
In addition, Brian Gilmartin of Trinity Asset Management published a piece titled "Financial Sector Estmates Still Show Favorable Trends" that is well worth the read. Seems, there are some revisions already taking place within forward estimates.
http://fundamentalis.com/?p=6729
Old_Skeet's market barometer still has a read of 131 indicating that the 500 Index is overbought. I wonder how the markets will be effected tomorrow after President Trump's speach this evening? And, I am indeed looking to see what the resulting barometer reading will be. It is interesting that all of the feeds are at (or below) their floor scoring readings with the exception being earnings. The earnings feed is comprised of both reported TTM earnings and forward estimates so if forward estimates get revised downward this will indeed have a negative impact on the feed's reading as well as faltering reported earnings. The barometer has a floor reading of 120 and a ceiling reading of 180. So, you can see we are currently well into the overbought zone and 11 points from the barometer's floor reading of 120. Please remember, a lower reading indicates there is less value to had in the 500 Index while a higher reading indicates more value. The zone indicators on the barometer are overbought, overvalued, fair value, undervalued, and oversold. Currently, 131 scores as overbought with the other feeds at or below their floor readings. With this, the strong earnings feed reading is all that is keeping the current barometer reading off it's floor. For me, this indicates the market is indeed extended and I look for a nearterm pullback and/or some sideways range bound price movement within the Index. I'm thinking that the markets are looking for a good message from our President this evening and this is currently already priced into stock market valuations. I see the markets as being very vunerable at this time!
As in the card game of bridge ... Anybody wanting to double?
For me, I going with Jeffrey Saut's sugguestion ... "I'm just going to sit" as I am towards the upper limit within my asset allocation for equities along with I am thinking that the stock market will continue to climb the earnings wall although there could be a nearterm pullback. Got some cash and will most likely become a buyer of stocks in a stock market pullback perhaps to the upper limit of their allocation within my portfolio. But, I need to see the barometer score some good value can be had first. That would take one heck of a movement on the barometer.
The primary reason that I am overweight equities, at this time, is because of a seasonal investment strategy that I follow where I load equities in the fall and generally keep their weighting towards their upper limit within my equity allocation until spring. I then begin a process to trim equities back towards a more normal weighting. March historically has offered up some good returns for stocks so, at this time, I going with the calendar over the barometer.
Thanks for stopping by.
Have a great day ... and, most of all ... I wish all "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet