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Friday the S&P 500 Index closed at a new high of 2,316.10 for a daily gain of +0.36%. The three best performing sectors were materials, industrials and energy. For the week the Index gained 1.18% and year-to-date is up 3.45%.
With the Index’s weekly gains Old_Skeet’s market barometer has now moved to a reading of 145 which is down 5 points from this week’s high of 150. The lower the reading on barometer indicates there is less value in the Index while a higher reading indicates there is more value.
In checking the markets this morning as I write Europe looks to be up while Asia-Pacific also looks to be up. In the States the futures are pointing for stocks to be up and government bonds to be down. The U S 10 Year closed with a yield of 2.409%. The three best performing futures this past Friday were copper, crude oil Brent and palladium. In checking the futures this morning as I write oats, cotton and copper lead.
Thanks in advance for stopping by and reading and for any comments you choose to make.
I’ll be traveling next week and most likely will be unable to post The Markets & More although I do plan to visit the board form time-to-time. So, if someone wishes to gear up to write an opening each morning next week it is ok with me.
In addition, you might wish to check back from time-to-time as additional links are often times added.
Thanks again for stopping by; and, most of all I wish all “Good Investing.”
Thanks @Old_Skeet ,safe voyage to you and those close to you.Thanks for this thread.I think you should introduce "Old_Skeet’s market barometer" in chart form !
With the Index’s weekly gains Old_Skeet’s market barometer has now moved to a reading of 145 which is down 5 points from this week’s high of 150. The lower the reading on barometer indicates there is less value in the Index while a higher reading indicates there is more value.
The barometer is comprised of input readings form five indicators plus a sixth if necessary. They are the the number of stocks trading above/below the Index's 200 day moving average, a blended P/E Ratio measurement that takes into account TTM Earnings along with forward estimates and a technical score that is comprised of the combined indicators of RSI and MFI and, if felt necessary, a sixth reading coming from the slow stoch indicator.
These indicator readings are then inputed into a spreadsheet and matrix that scores each reading and when added provides the overall barometer reading.
I have been using it for the past couple of years as an aid to help me adjust my exposure to equities within my asset allocation. A reading of 150 is in the middle of fair vale and scales upward to undervalued and oversold at a reading 165 and conversly moving in the other direction scales to overvalued and overbought at a reading of 135. The higher the barometer reading indicates more value in the Index while a lower barometer reading indicates less value.
It is probally, not perfect by big money standards, but, thus far, it has worked well for this now retired an acredited retail investor.
To go beyond what I have stated would get into each indicator's scaling which I consider properitary. The barometer is not scaled to the Index's reading.
I am currently overweight equities based upon the current barometer reading. This is due to a fall seasonal investment stratey but even with this I am still well within my allowable asset allocation range for equities. I have followed this investment strategy through the years which calls for an overweight to equities from the early fall through winter and into spring. Know, it does not work every year but I have found that it works more times than not. I'll use the barometer to assist me in raising and lowering my allocation to equities when warranted. Traditionally, I go light in equities during most of the summer and heavy during fall, winter and spring.
Again, the barometer is not scaled to the Index's reading; but, it helps me determine valuation levels in the market (Index). Currently, I score the market (Index) as being a little overvalued but not yet overbought based upon the current barometer reading. Would I invest new money in equities at this time? No, not in domestic; but, I might in foreign as they are not as richly priced as their domestic cousins and I'm thinking they offer a better value for purchase at this time.
thanks very much for providing this background. Yes I agree that U.S. appears overbought. I'm going to add to my emerging market holdings in SFGIX. Can I ask what funds you invest in for international equity exposure? HAINX is still my primary international fund.
Currently, foreign stocks make up about a third of my total stock allocation. This exposure is gained mostly through three global sleeves found in my portfolio plus a specialty/theme sleeve. For me to load foreign securities I would be buying in global hybrid and equity funds that have a high concentration in foreign securities TEQIX being one and DEQAX another. These are currently the only global funds that I am underweight in within any of my global sleeves. Now, in retirement I stay pretty close to my overall asset allocation within my portfolio but I do tweak up to about (+ or -) five percent from a neutral position in equities plus adjust my domestic and foreign mix from time-to-time. I use my market barometer to assist me in making these tweaks and to help throttle my equity allocation. In addition, seasonal trends have influence on my asset allocation as well. Currently, I am finding that growth leads value and emerging markets lead in the foreign space while, in general, domestic stocks are a touch overvalued but not yet overbought.
In the growth & income area of my portfolio I have two global sleeves. One is an global equity sleeve consisting of CWGIX, DEQAX & EADIX and the other one is the global hybrid sleeve consisting of CAIBX, TEQIX & TIBAX. In the growth area of the portfolio there is found another global equity sleeve consisting of ANWPX, SMCWX & THOAX. Another sleeve in the growth area that currently has a foreign tilt is the specialty/theme sleeve and it consists of LPEFX, NEWFX & PGUAX.
Comments
Derf
From last year's bottoms of Feb 11th,2016 One year returns
For the one-year return window, emerging-market stocks continue to lead the field. VWO’s total return is a sizzling 36.9% over the trailing 252 trading days through Feb. 10.
http://www.capitalspectator.com/commodities-rallied-last-week-leading-most-markets-higher/
Thank you for your question.
The barometer is comprised of input readings form five indicators plus a sixth if necessary. They are the the number of stocks trading above/below the Index's 200 day moving average, a blended P/E Ratio measurement that takes into account TTM Earnings along with forward estimates and a technical score that is comprised of the combined indicators of RSI and MFI and, if felt necessary, a sixth reading coming from the slow stoch indicator.
These indicator readings are then inputed into a spreadsheet and matrix that scores each reading and when added provides the overall barometer reading.
I have been using it for the past couple of years as an aid to help me adjust my exposure to equities within my asset allocation. A reading of 150 is in the middle of fair vale and scales upward to undervalued and oversold at a reading 165 and conversly moving in the other direction scales to overvalued and overbought at a reading of 135. The higher the barometer reading indicates more value in the Index while a lower barometer reading indicates less value.
It is probally, not perfect by big money standards, but, thus far, it has worked well for this now retired an acredited retail investor.
To go beyond what I have stated would get into each indicator's scaling which I consider properitary. The barometer is not scaled to the Index's reading.
Hope this helps.
Old_Skeet
Thanks for the question.
I am currently overweight equities based upon the current barometer reading. This is due to a fall seasonal investment stratey but even with this I am still well within my allowable asset allocation range for equities. I have followed this investment strategy through the years which calls for an overweight to equities from the early fall through winter and into spring. Know, it does not work every year but I have found that it works more times than not. I'll use the barometer to assist me in raising and lowering my allocation to equities when warranted. Traditionally, I go light in equities during most of the summer and heavy during fall, winter and spring.
Again, the barometer is not scaled to the Index's reading; but, it helps me determine valuation levels in the market (Index). Currently, I score the market (Index) as being a little overvalued but not yet overbought based upon the current barometer reading. Would I invest new money in equities at this time? No, not in domestic; but, I might in foreign as they are not as richly priced as their domestic cousins and I'm thinking they offer a better value for purchase at this time.
Old_Skeet
Currently, foreign stocks make up about a third of my total stock allocation. This exposure is gained mostly through three global sleeves found in my portfolio plus a specialty/theme sleeve. For me to load foreign securities I would be buying in global hybrid and equity funds that have a high concentration in foreign securities TEQIX being one and DEQAX another. These are currently the only global funds that I am underweight in within any of my global sleeves. Now, in retirement I stay pretty close to my overall asset allocation within my portfolio but I do tweak up to about (+ or -) five percent from a neutral position in equities plus adjust my domestic and foreign mix from time-to-time. I use my market barometer to assist me in making these tweaks and to help throttle my equity allocation. In addition, seasonal trends have influence on my asset allocation as well. Currently, I am finding that growth leads value and emerging markets lead in the foreign space while, in general, domestic stocks are a touch overvalued but not yet overbought.
In the growth & income area of my portfolio I have two global sleeves. One is an global equity sleeve consisting of CWGIX, DEQAX & EADIX and the other one is the global hybrid sleeve consisting of CAIBX, TEQIX & TIBAX. In the growth area of the portfolio there is found another global equity sleeve consisting of ANWPX, SMCWX & THOAX. Another sleeve in the growth area that currently has a foreign tilt is the specialty/theme sleeve and it consists of LPEFX, NEWFX & PGUAX.
My best,
Skeet