The Markets and More ... Friday Febuary 10, 2017

Comments

• bee

  February 2017 edited February 2017

  QQQ up on Low Volume...sign of a top or just a slow snowy trading day in the Northeast?
  mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/low_qqq_volume_a_sign_of_a_top/
• TSP_Transfer

  February 2017 edited February 2017

  Can you still include the word moderate in a paragraph that includes Democrat's and Republican's ?
  University of Michigan Survey.Consumer confidence retreated from the decade-peak recorded in January, with the decline centered in the Expectations Index. To be sure, confidence remains quite favorable, with only five higher readings in the past decade. Importantly, the data do not reflect any closing of the partisan divide.
  ... differences are troublesome: the Democrat’s Expectations Index is close to its historic low (indicating recession) and the Republican’s Expectations Index is near its historic high (indicating expansion). While currently distorted by partisanship, the best bet is that the gap will narrow to match a more moderate pace of growth.
  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu
  
  Is "Phenomenal"better than Huuuge
  Highlights of the Week:© 2016 Payden & Rygel All rights reserved.
  Treasuries A flight-to-quality bid due to European concerns (France, Greece, Nederlands, UK) as well as the lack of confidence in Trumponomics was persistent throughout the week. However, Thursday when President Trump announced they would present a “phenomenal” tax plan by the end of the month the curves re-steepened
  Corporates: American Made Coalition,” including behemoths such as GE and Boeing.... have formed in agreed support of the Republican’s proposal which includes a decrease in the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%, a 20% import tax, and the ability to exclude export revenue from taxable income.
  High Yield: Since the middle of December, spreads for the BAML BB/B High Yield Bond Index have traded in a narrow range, close to their post-recession tights. In this low-volatility environment we believe investors will benefit over the long-term by focusing on quality in their portfolios.
  Currencies.....increased likelihood of a victory of far-right candidate Le Pen in the French presidential elections.. sent the single currency tumbling. To top it all, renewed tension between the Greek government and the IMF over the country’s next debt repayment additionally undermined the euro.
  Municipals The fundamental backdrop for municipals remains favorable with a $16 billion supply deficit projected over the next month and renewed inflows to funds.
  https://www.payden.com/weekly/wir021017.pdf
  
  U.S. Economic Update
  Emil Mihaylov Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.February 8, 2017
  New Year Brings Economic Promises and Challenges
  Job Growth Robust, but Wage Growth WeakensPrice Inflation Measures Steadily Rise
  
  On the inflation front, December data showed that personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation measures were firming up and closing the gap with the Federal Open Market Committee’s 2 percent target
  https://www.dallasfed.org/research/update/us/2017/1701
  
  
  How Much Political Risk Can The Markets Tolerate?
  By James Picerno | Feb 9, 2017 http://www.capitalspectator.com
  Bull markets have been known to climb a wall of worry. But when does a rising supply of unease become too much to handle?
  The answer may be forthcoming as investors digest an expanding front of worrisome developments in the political realm. Let’s start with the US, where President Trump has delivered a daily barrage of politically contentious tweets, statements, and executive orders since his inauguration last month. From threatening a trade war to “demoralizing” attacks on the judiciary, America’s boisterous new leader has been ripping up the script left and rightThe good news is that the current numbers still point to a US economy that’s on track to grow at a moderate pace in this year’s first quarter. Four-percent growth, however, is nowhere in sight.
  The question is whether Trumponomics is the real deal? The stakes are certainly high. If forecasts of faster growth turn out to be hot air, the market may lose its capacity for tolerating elevated geopolitical risk. The crowd has been willing to abide a President who spends political capital with abandon. But the calculus for pricing assets may become increasingly harsh if economic results fall well short of expectations.
  http://www.capitalspectator.com/how-much-political-risk-can-the-markets-tolerate/
• davidrmoran

  February 2017 edited February 2017

  >> The question is whether Trumponomics is the real deal?
  
  bwahaha, that is not in question
  
  >> If forecasts of faster growth turn out to be hot air,
  
  If this guy can even pose that seriously, it is hard to take seriously anything in his column. His digestion is slow.
  
  Econ growth looks okay for now, yes. See my Goldman internal post from several weeks ago.
• TSP_Transfer

  February 2017

  Paradigms from Heaven
  © ANFIELD CAPITAL
  Scene: The oak-wood paneled salon of the Pantheon Club, somewhere in heaven. Ibn Khaldun, the 14th-century philosopher and proto supply-sider naps in a wing-back chair beside a crackling fire. A scratchy recording of Pennies from Heaven is playing on a nearby Victrola.
  Enter Adam Smith, economist, free-trade advocate and author of the 1776 blockbuster The Wealth of Nations. He retrieves an iPad from his great coat and collapses in a chair opposite Khaldun. After swiping his way to The Scotsman’s digital edition, he grunts with enough authority to jolt Khaldun
  Enter Jean-Baptiste Colbert, 16th-century French Minister of Finance and the father of mercantilism.
  Suddenly, a thunderclap and a howling wind rips through the salon, whipping the fire into an inferno that singes the Persian carpet by the hearth. The door swings open to reveal Karl Marx,
  And a special appearance,late.
  http://anfieldcapital.com/anfields-promontory-february-monthly-investor-newsletter/
• MikeM

  February 2017

  @TSP_Transfer and @Old_Skeet , your combination of financial commentary in one post is terrific. Thank you for your effort.