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Personal observation - Recently I was in Atlanta, Las Vegas, Tucson, El Paso, San Antonio and Austin. I saw a lot of housing construction and road construction in all those areas. I was in LV before the last bubble burst and it reminds me of that - new subdivisions going up on the edges of town.
You should see DC. A lot of low-calorie rubbish going up. Row houses meant to support a single family being carved up into cheap, 6-unit buildings. Dingy units with bars on windows, warped floors, <800 sqft listing for astronomical prices.
Some of this is driven by a trend back to the city to avoid beltway traffic / commutes. Other parts of it feel downright bubble-icious.
Seattle-Tacoma housing prices have erupted over the past year or two. Seattle usually leads off then the surrounding metro prices go up as demand goes up from people looking for cheaper homes. People end up 60 miles from their work.
U.S. Existing Home Sales Reach 10-Year High BY TOM MOELLER,Haver Analytics JANUARY 24, 2017 During all of 2016, sales of existing homes increased 3.8% to 5.452 million, the highest level since 2006, when sales reached 6.478 million. The total inventory of homes on the market declined 6.3% y/y to 1.650 million. The months' sales supply of homes fell to 3.6 months, the lowest point since January 2005. The median price of all previously owned homes improved 4.0% versus December 2015 to $232,200. The average price of an existing home rose to $274,000 (3.0% y/y).
http://www.haver.com Walking Away From Commercial Mortgages With the continued rise of e-commerce punishing retailers, and in turn, those who rent space to them, some mall landlords are deciding it's best to walk away from struggling properties, writes Esther Fund in the WSJ. The lenders, in turn, are then forced to sell the distressed properties at fire-sale prices. In the first 11 months of 2016, 314 loans secured by retail property were liquidated, up 11% from the same period a year earlier. "There have been some draconian losses for the enclosed mall business," says James Hull, whose firm purchased five malls out of foreclosure last year. Simon Property Group (NYSE:SPG) .. last year defaulted on a loan secured by Greendale Mall in Worcester, MA. Washington Prime Group (NYSE:WPG) late last year said it was considering turning malls in Grand Junction, CO and Lancaster, OH back to lenders CBL & Associates (NYSE:CBL) has rid itself of 14 malls since 2014, with six of those handed back to lenders. http://seekingalpha.com/news/3237097-mall-owners-turning-jingle-mail
Howard Davidowitz, chairman of the New York City-based retail consulting and investment banking firm Davidowitz and Associates, has been warning of a retail disaster for some time We're likely going to see large numbers of retail locations and malls close, he added. Store sizes have to shrink and we need fewer stores in general. We'll also have more urban stores and fewer suburban locations.
"This is going to be traumatic because there's $47 billion of shopping-centered debt coming due in the next 18 months," Davidowitz said. "Neiman Marcus is not viable. They can't operate with this much debt. Neither can J Crew. They're overwhelmed. Sears, the largest department store in America, is in liquidation. Kmart is in liquidation."
Lisa Abramowicz@Bloomberg Gadfly Looks for more pain ahead in retail It’s been a bad couple of months for Neiman Marcus. But the already beaten-up Neiman Marcus notes plunged substantially further on Monday without an obvious explanation. While prices on bonds maturing in 2021 had dropped more than 19 percent from Dec. 12 through Friday, they fell an additional 6.7 percent on Monday for the biggest one-day loss in more than a year.Still, this isn't a new development. Bond investors can't exactly have been taken by surprise by this sea change in consumer behavior, away from shopping at stores and buying goods and toward shopping online and purchasing vacations and experiences. https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-01-24/neiman-marcus-bond-pain-points-to-more-junk-sinkholes-gadfly
Comments
Some of this is driven by a trend back to the city to avoid beltway traffic / commutes. Other parts of it feel downright bubble-icious.
The last article was in July.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/tonysagami/2016/07/14/4-signs-the-global-housing-bubble-is-already-bursting-heres-what-to-do/#1fbf3fa7446a
BY TOM MOELLER,Haver Analytics JANUARY 24, 2017
During all of 2016, sales of existing homes increased 3.8% to 5.452 million, the highest level since 2006, when sales reached 6.478 million.
The total inventory of homes on the market declined 6.3% y/y to 1.650 million. The months' sales supply of homes fell to 3.6 months, the lowest point since January 2005.
The median price of all previously owned homes improved 4.0% versus December 2015 to $232,200. The average price of an existing home rose to $274,000 (3.0% y/y).
http://www.haver.com
Walking Away From Commercial Mortgages
With the continued rise of e-commerce punishing retailers, and in turn, those who rent space to them, some mall landlords are deciding it's best to walk away from struggling properties, writes Esther Fund in the WSJ.
The lenders, in turn, are then forced to sell the distressed properties at fire-sale prices.
In the first 11 months of 2016, 314 loans secured by retail property were liquidated, up 11% from the same period a year earlier. "There have been some draconian losses for the enclosed mall business," says James Hull, whose firm purchased five malls out of foreclosure last year.
Simon Property Group (NYSE:SPG) .. last year defaulted on a loan secured by Greendale Mall in Worcester, MA.
Washington Prime Group (NYSE:WPG) late last year said it was considering turning malls in Grand Junction, CO and Lancaster, OH back to lenders
CBL & Associates (NYSE:CBL) has rid itself of 14 malls since 2014, with six of those handed back to lenders.
http://seekingalpha.com/news/3237097-mall-owners-turning-jingle-mail
Howard Davidowitz, chairman of the New York City-based retail consulting and investment banking firm Davidowitz and Associates, has been warning of a retail disaster for some time
We're likely going to see large numbers of retail locations and malls close, he added. Store sizes have to shrink and we need fewer stores in general. We'll also have more urban stores and fewer suburban locations.
"This is going to be traumatic because there's $47 billion of shopping-centered debt coming due in the next 18 months," Davidowitz said. "Neiman Marcus is not viable. They can't operate with this much debt. Neither can J Crew. They're overwhelmed. Sears, the largest department store in America, is in liquidation. Kmart is in liquidation."
What we're seeing is an absolute train wreck, Davidowitz stated, and we're going to need massive restructuring in the retail space.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4038163-davidowitz-brick-mortar-retail-absolute-train-wreck
Lisa Abramowicz@Bloomberg Gadfly Looks for more pain ahead in retail
It’s been a bad couple of months for Neiman Marcus.
But the already beaten-up Neiman Marcus notes plunged substantially further on Monday without an obvious explanation. While prices on bonds maturing in 2021 had dropped more than 19 percent from Dec. 12 through Friday, they fell an additional 6.7 percent on Monday for the biggest one-day loss in more than a year.Still, this isn't a new development. Bond investors can't exactly have been taken by surprise by this sea change in consumer behavior, away from shopping at stores and buying goods and toward shopping online and purchasing vacations and experiences.
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-01-24/neiman-marcus-bond-pain-points-to-more-junk-sinkholes-gadfly