MFOHome About Commentary Discussions Funds The Best Resources Support Us!

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Sign In Register

Categories

In this Discussion

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

    Support MFO

  • Donate through PayPal

Q1 GDP Misses Slightly On Broad Deceleration Across Categories

TedTed
in Off-Topic
FYI: The Advance estimate of Q1 GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released this morning showed a notable deceleration in growth across categories. Estimates were calling for growth in the neighborhood of +0.6% QoQ, at an annual rate. The actual unrounded number was +0.54%, so these estimates weren’t half bad! However, the result was still disappointing as weaker spending on cars helped push down the contribution of durable goods to GDP, investment in shaft/well structures (a proxy for oil & gas fixed investment) shaved over 60 bps from headline GDP, and the trade deficit widened. Below we summarize the release in our table which shows the contribution to total GDP by category for Q4 and Q1 as well as the change between last quarter and this quarter.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/q1-gdp-misses-slightly-on-broad-deceleration-across-categories/

Comments

  • prinx
    Ted
    Bespoke looks like a good service !
    May I ask your opinion of whether you get considerable specific actionable advice or more general news?
    prinx
  • TedTed
    @prinx: I don't subscribe to Bespoke, I only link what is available for free.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • TSP_TransferTSP_Transfer
    edited April 2016
    NEW NORMAL ??

    US Q1 GDP Growth Rate Weakened To 2-Year Low
    US economic growth stumbled in this year’s first quarter, according to this morning’s estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The government’s first release of the Q1 GDP report revealed a weak gain of 0.5% (seasonally adjusted annual rate)–less than half the pace of the already sluggish 1.4% rise in last year’s Q4

    image

    On that note, the focus now turns to deciding if the disappointing Q1 data is a prelude to even darker numbers ahead. Or does the first-quarter weakness go down in history as yet another soft patch that eventually gave way to stronger growth in Q2 and beyond? No one really knows at this point, but the answer begins rolling in with some authority in next week’s update on payrolls for April.

    Meantime, there’s a new reason to remain skeptical on the macro outlook. By some accounts, it’s just business as usual. “Get used to it,” advises Ethan Harris, co-head of global economics research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, via Bloomberg. “We’re just a lower-growth economy now. Within the random noise of the data, in any given year, it’ll be normal to get a near-zero quarter every year. It won’t necessarily be the sign of something bad happening.”

    Maybe so, but it’s not particularly encouraging either.
    http://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q1-gdp-growth-weakened-to-2-year-low/
  • SandraWisdom
    Very interesting information. The Feds around the world are trying to stimulate inflation and it isn't working.
    In someway I feel the economic world has changed yet the FED's economists don't see it.

    No matter where you look Europe, Japan, China, USA, there isn't a compelling story for economic growth. Karl Marx would say the countries would have a war to change the situation. Unless the war was between Europe and the Russia, a war like in the Middle East doesn't provide much stimulus.

    Does anyone know a similar economic situation in the past? Was the world after WWI similar to now?
Sign In or Register to comment.