Since we are now about two thirds through February there has been a lot that has transpired in the markets since the last thread.
Thinking back, I can remember some themes I use to position for which would last weeks upon weeks and now with electronic trading in place they seem to get sniffed out quickly and only last days. These themes are where I used to position a good number of my spiff positions. Interestingly, the timing models that I follow indicate cash is king. My specialty sleeve is currently focused on private equity and infrastucture which are long term themes.
Recently, with the rebound in the markets and with recent buying puts me north of my target allocation in equities (50%). With this, I moved one of my buy and hold positions from its large/mid cap sleeve to the ballast/spiff sleeve. When my equity allocation grows to the point where I have become overweight equities (above 55%) I'll reballance and trim from the ballast/spiff sleeve.
I have read where
@rono is starting to explore the miners with some opening positions. I am wondering what others might be doing in positioning for this anticipated rebound? Otherwise, if I can not come up with some new ideas that catch my fancy I'll just ride with my current allocation and perhaps keep adding to my good paying dividend funds and trim from my capital appreciation funds. The good dividend payers will pay through thick and thin while the capital appreciation funds have to have uptrending markets to shine. So, I am starting to load more dividend payers and lighten up in my capital appreciation funds as the market recovers and might expand my specialty/theme sleeve to include emerging markets which are now part of my global growth sleeve.
Wondering what you might be doing or pondering?
Comments
Despite a nice rebound, I remain a bit more cautious as to near term prospects. I am more optimistic in general about the 2nd half of the year however, so with another dip I may be inching forward. The last several months have been extremely informative though, as having a foothold in several funds which will be the landing places for my 401K rollover gives me a chance to see how they perform in less that ideal markets...that's been REALLY helpful. And...I should have bought into VWINX much earlier in my investing life.
I've been pretty active though over the past few weeks. Like you, adding to the divi payers in the income sleeve with SCHD and several REITS. Odd how a section of REITS just get punished....like in healthcare....and it makes a great point for add-on dollars.
Having said that, I did roll the dice with multiple purchases of a biotech, Celldex (CLDX). It is indeed very speculative and has gotten hammered like all the bio's, but I think immunotherapy will be a god-send. If it's good enough for Jimmy Carter, it's good enough for me.
press
Note that I raised some cash back when things started melting. First place I put some it back to work was with SQM as it's one of the pure lithium plays. I owned it years back but it was early. May still be. With the movement in the gold and silver, I've been scaling into a mo play with the junior silver miners such as SVMLF, AG, ASM, and EXK. Just bought some XOM but it's down today. feh.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
We are leaving leaving cash at about 20% of the retirement port. Right now we can rely on pensions an SS for what we need...for however long they all honor THAT.
We try to put the rmd's back into a taxable account, but, you know, those travel brochures come in the mail
At the moment the Bank of Mom and Pop is still afloat, but watching...
The latest small bits added were Fastenal FAST, NorSo NSC, IBM, and Deere DE. Would have added a little of Genuine Parts GPC at 79 but some blabbermouth on Barrons ran the thing up.
Stay calm everybody and buy something that produces antacids.
best, hawk
press
1986 -5.5%
1987 13.0%
1988 15.0%
1989 11.4%
1990 4.7%
1991 10.2%
1992 3.3%
1993 2 3.8%
1994 -2.8%
1995 21.4%
1996 17.7%
1997 -5.5%
1998 30.5%
1999 65.2%
2000 16.0%
2001 3.8%
2002 14.3%
2003 2.7%
2004 3.4%
2005 4.4%
2006 5.6%
2007 17.7%
2008 9.9%
2009 25.7%
2010 9.0%
2011 5.4%
2012 -1.5%
2013 -2.5%
2014 15.6%
2015 6.4%
2016 ?
* https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zlgOYdATSzC7YrUE9yE_uY03sHBRTcLUVyKusqqv2tI/edit?usp=sharing
** FSESX data = ETF equivalent XES
I am long XES
The particular assets involved are not as important as recent market behavior. That is, equities have gone down in price whereas bonds have gone up in price. (In spite of the Fed having raised the discount rate by 0.25%.) Thus I have taken some money off the table from my recent bond winners (sell high), and bought a bit more of my losing equities (buy low).
Cheers
I did expand my specialty and theme sleeve found in the growth area to cover three themes. The themes are business development / private equity, infrastructure, and emerging markets. A fund that @DavidV mentioned that demonstrated good downside and one I plan to review in more detail is TWEIX. Another fund that he referenced and one that I already own is SVAAX which is the largest holding in my domestic equity sleeve found in the growth & income area of my portfolio and one that has performed well in this downdraft.
If anyone feels it beneficial or has the urge to open a new thread in "What Are You Buying, Selling or Pondering?" before I plan to open the next one, which will be sometime around the third week in March, you are welcome to do so.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."