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Morningstar's Fair Market Value Update - Undervalued By 13%

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  • this includes US and international stocks.
    Would be nice if M* separated those out.....and even better if they broke this out further, for example, US large caps, US small caps........etc
  • edited January 2016
    Yep, I reference this graph myself from time-to-time to see what M*'s thinking is on market value. Since, my valuation system follows the S&P 500 Index which I score at 8% below fair value their's 13% on a global perspective, for the stocks they follow, might be spot on. This is one of the reasons that my two most recent buys have been in a world equity fund.
  • Thanks @Charles this is really interesting and I never knew this was available before. It would be nice if it could be broken down in ways that they don't offer but I was pretty impressed that they'll let you look at it down to the industry level, by moat and/or fair value uncertainty.

    Interestingly, though, the last 'review' of M*'s stock ratings is from October 2010 and, funny enough, says "At Morningstar, we espouse the benefits of transparency in the investing world. For that reason, we do our best to provide an honest picture of our stock rating performance every quarter." After that I can't find another review of their performance. Apparently M* and their espouse got divorced soon thereafter.
  • Thank you for the link.
  • beebee
    edited January 2016
    An interesting read that lends itself to this thread and this chart from the "Short Side of Long" blog.
    "Yesterday was quite a strong down day, registering almost 1,400 new lows on the NY stock exchange. Historically, this is a very rare feat."

    image

    Link to blog entry:
    https://shortsideoflong.com/2016/01/strong-selling-pressure-em-valuations-very-attractive/
  • edited January 2016
    Third highest number of new lows going back to the 1960s. All we need now is a Zweig 9 to 1 day and we are at 7.5 intraday as I type this. Junk bond ETFs are trading way above yesterday's NAV too.

    Edit: Never saw a panic VIX reading though.
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