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Good Haven - GOOD GRIEF!

VintageFreakVintageFreak
in Fund Discussions
For whatever reason, sometimes you dodge a bullet. I have my HSGFX and PAUDX (and to a much smaller extent my WBLSX decision I corrected soon enough I hope). However, two funds I was waiting to buy after getting out of MXXVX and AKREX, I never bought. One is SEQUX. The other is GOODX, which is fairing worse than SEQUX albeit with a substantial cash allocation.

There have been instances, when managers suffer badly only to mount a resurgence. However, sometimes they do not. I have mentioned I feel something is broken at Hussman and Whitebox. Anyone have any insight on GoodHaven? I would have thought the Walnut (not Apple) would not have fallen too far from the tree (Fairholme), but I think it has.

Comments

  • AndyJ
    edited November 2015
    I followed GOODX for a while after inception, but gave up. Looks like they had a decent 2012 and an okay 2013 and then fell off a cliff in '14 and '15, so now they come in at the bottom of the category.

    If I recall correctly, the now-#1 holding, Walter Investment, has been high in the portfolio forever. It had a hot 2012, but since then has averaged -37% a year for the past three. Apparently the latest macro portfolio move has been to load up on commodity energy and materials.

    Imho, the Goodhaven guys need to go in for comprehensive testing for value trap-itis.
  • scott
    edited November 2015
    I look at Goodhaven and I'm not understanding the philosophy. Gold and Energy #2 and #3 positions? Okay, value traps. Sears? Uber value trap. HP? Value trap. Leucadia? Hasn't been the same since they bought Jefferies and the CEO with the hilarious name took over. Staples? Why in the world would you buy Staples? Dundee Corp? Obliteration - that and Sprott have been annihilated. You have these resource-friendly investors like Sprott, Dundee and US Global Investors who are absolutely just all-in despite the fact that everything is telling them not to be. Seritage? Oh, you mean I can buy a REIT with tons of Sears stores? I mean, Macy's and Nordstrom are really indicating that everything is (not) okay at the mall, so gee, where do I sign up?

    Additionally, with Macy's and Nordstrom reporting horrendous numbers and JC Penney getting obliterated, if they are any indication, Sears probably does not have much longer in its current form - I still think Sears will be an huge Nygren/WaMu for Berkowitz). Everything retail is down huge today. Even things that are actually doing well (Ulta.)

    Alleghany, White Mountains and Berkshire, fine. Google fine. I'm clueless as to what the thought process must have been with much of the rest of the portfolio.
  • VintageFreakVintageFreak
    I bow before thee. I want to purchase ScottHaven fund. I didn't even think what you said, good man.
  • rjb112
    VintageFreak said:

    However, two funds I was waiting to buy after getting out of MXXVX and AKREX, I never bought.

    What made you get out of AKREX, Akre Focus fund?
  • VintageFreakVintageFreak
    edited November 2015
    rjb112 said:


    What made you get out of AKREX, Akre Focus fund?

    I got out of AKREX because it was a great performer for me. I had lot of capital gains and I needed to sell something to offset loses elsewhere. Lack of manager succession planning decide me. I sold MXXVX and AKREX after buying them in the dumps after the great recession.

    My "when you buy more important than what you buy" mantra kept me out of both. I regretted selling AKREX, but that is more like a mosquito bite. There have been times I haven't sold when I felt like I should have and felt like I was punched in the face. I believe money is not made until you sell. I keep rotating assets in funds I like after they have run up.

    SEQUX, GOODX were on my list. WGRNX, MXXVX, SMVLX are on my list now. WGRNX, MXXVX have started to falter. I will be patient, and even more so with SMVLX.
  • rjb112
    "WGRNX, MXXVX, SMVLX are on my list now. WGRNX, MXXVX have started to falter. I will be patient, and even more so with SMVLX."

    I'm a big fan of Smead Value Fund. I like the manager's philosophy and investment principles. I'm not sure I would wait for Smead to falter.....you could be waiting a very long time......of course, anything can happen

    cheers!

  • VintageFreakVintageFreak
    rjb112 said:

    I'm not sure I would wait for Smead to falter.....you could be waiting a very long time......of course, anything can happen

    One thing I have learnt is to be patient. I'm okay if I never buy it in my lifetime. But no more buying fund and hoping for dear life it will work. Buy and Hold only works in hindsight for those who have bought at a market bottom and then held on. I might never be able to buy SMVLX or EGFFX. What is more important here is that I avoided SEQUX and GOODX because of the same patience and did not re-enter WGRNX.
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