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UBS: Emerging Markets Are Entering 'a New and Dangerous Phase' in 2016

davfordavfor
in Off-Topic
UBS thinks there is one more year of pain in store for EM's before prospects brighten.

"The strategists are cautiously optimistic on the outlook for global equities and do not expect carnage in fixed income. If there's one asset class UBS is unreservedly bearish about, it's emerging markets. The developing world is "entering a new and dangerous phase," according to strategist Yianos Kontopoulos."

The video version of the story provides significantly more detail than the print version:

UBS

Comments

  • VintageFreakVintageFreak
    I am glad to see this article. Too much group think lately on Emerging Market returns expecting to outperform over next 7 years. Someone not asking investors to rush and by in. I've been eyeing FTEMX recommended here on MFO and perhaps Grandeur Peak Micro Cap when it is avaialable hoping it has smattering of EM.
  • rjb112
    VintageFreak said:

    I've been eyeing FTEMX recommended here on MFO and perhaps Grandeur Peak Micro Cap when it is avaialable hoping it has smattering of EM.

    VF, don't hold your breath on Grandeur Peak Micro Cap becoming available. I'd be quite surprised if that happens. There were requests to purchase $85M of it, and they only allowed $25M of subscriptions. Good luck
  • VintageFreakVintageFreak
    edited November 2015
    rjb112 said:

    VintageFreak said:

    I've been eyeing FTEMX recommended here on MFO and perhaps Grandeur Peak Micro Cap when it is avaialable hoping it has smattering of EM.

    VF, don't hold your breath on Grandeur Peak Micro Cap becoming available. I'd be quite surprised if that happens. There were requests to purchase $85M of it, and they only allowed $25M of subscriptions. Good luck
    Well, I'm not looking to open account directly with Grandeur Peak anyway. So I'm already out of the race for this one. Who needs Global Micro Cap anyway? All Big Corporations are going to eat up the little guys not at premium but by crushing them.:-P

    Besides, I am trying to stay away as much as I can from large,mid,small,micro advertised funds for a while now.
  • Sven
    @davfor, Thanks for the UBS clip. Narendra Modi is having hard time recently as India could be one of the brighter spot among EM.

    theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/08/narendra-modis-party-concedes-defeat-in-bihar-election

    2016 could wind up to be a challenging year for EM if USD continues to strength.
  • davfordavfor
    Sven said:

    @davfor, Thanks for the UBS clip. ...
    2016 could wind up to be a challenging year for EM if USD continues to strength.

    You're welcome. It seems too soon to declare the worst has past for EM's. Perhaps events in 2016 will clarify that. But, I am sitting tight with my EM holdings as they're a long term investment.

  • Sven
    Agree. They are long term investment.
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