Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

In this Discussion

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

    Support MFO

  • Donate through PayPal

Chartist Sell Signal

The Chartist Mutual Fund letter gave a sell signal today. He is going 85% in cash. This letter has been around since the 70s, and I like his actual cash account approach (i.e. he invests actual money based on his recommendations, and shows the results). He does get whipsawed sometimes. Still, over the long term his results are impressive.

Most of the buy-sell indicators I watch at have switched to the sell-side over the last month. I don't really use these indicators to go all-in or all-out of the market, but I do use them sometimes as a basis to increase or decrease my market exposure. I increased my cash level to 60% by last Thursday, which is high cash for me (most of my holdings were bought to be held for life).

I suspect we have a good ways to go with this correction (bear market). Today's action was scary.


  • Yes, Dan Sullivan is one of the better ones out there. And as you mentioned, he has a real money account. Must be a big difference between a timer and a trader (and there is) as I could never imagine sitting through the drawdown Mr Sullivan must have had until his end of the day sell signal this evening. Congrats on being 60% in cash last Thursday. Rule #1 in wealth accumulation for a trader - Don't lose! Meaning, never sit in a losing position and never allow a winner to turn into a loser.
  • Seriously. All charts all over are signaling "sell" signal.
  • Would be more impressive if it had signaled a sell three or four weeks ago.
  • Seriously. All charts all over are signaling "sell" signal.

    Everything is screaming sell except the VIX. Very rarely goes above 40. However, the datapoints below aren't useful, because buy signal happened 10/10/2008, after SP500 dropped from 1300 to 900, with low under 700.

    With economies slowing down, SP500 triple from bottom, SP500 death cross, why didn't I go more in cash last week? Maybe on next uptick, get out slowly.
  • Here's a recap for moving averages that is taken at month end.
  • edited August 2015
    Hi Folks,

    I am still within a mid range allocation to equities within my asset allocation that currently falls somewhere between 45% to 50%. A high range for me would be around 60% and a low range would be around 40%. Currently, I've got my buying britches on and plan to open, and then postion cost average into, a special investment position (spiff) as we move towards fall.

    I learned many years ago in times of uncertanity and high stock market valuations sell down equities not out of equities. And, those that have followed my post through the years know I sold some of my equities down into a rising overbought market thus raising my cash allocation many months ago. Now on weakness and by my thinking an oversold market it is time to do a little buying in equities and lower my allocation to cash.

    We each have our own strategies that are a fit only to us and perhaps not others. There are many many ways to have success in the markets including shorting which I do not do.

    Have fun and I wish each ... "Good Investing."

  • @MFO Members: As the Linkster has said on many occasions, there is a chart room on every ship at the bottom of the sea.
  • Be a trend ignorer, not a trend follower.
Sign In or Register to comment.