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FYI: (Click On Article title At Top Of Google Search) Sentiment on energy and gold -- and oil and metals stocks -- may be nearing capitulation. Now is a good time to lean against the wind and start to buy. Regards, Ted https://www.google.com/#q=time+to+buy+commodities+barron's
Thanks for the link Ted. A timely Issue ... But do you really think anyone here is going to buy one of the funds they suggest, GHAAX - down 37.7% for one year?
Uh-oh.... now, I think it is time to stop walking and start running in the other direction, if you're still in (with hand on wallet), and stay the hell away if you're still out. This snowball, rolling down the hill, is picking up speed and increasing in size.
Commodity prices are now falling in all currencies and (quite strangely, to me) across all categories! [h/t Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture, 8/7/15]
While I own commodities in two different funds and converted one of those to Roth status in January, it hasn't exactly been a sunny day at the beach these past few months. I can "unconvert" the Roth up until October - but am hanging tough.
Agree with Ronald Regan in heaps. "There's gotta be pony around here somewhere."
Guns or butter. "...Some argue that the Undistributed profits tax enacted in 1936 caused a panic in Corporate America. Faced with the specter of taxation on retained earnings the business world immediately ceased most planned expansion and capital equipment purchases." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession_of_1937–38
I notice that about 50% of tv commercials are for cars and trucks. Think the price for vehicles could be reduced if all those damnable ads didn't have to be paid for?
Last few weeks I started dipping my toe in, buying some commodities & energy stocks (BBL, TDW, ESV) that I think can survive and make acquisitions during a downturn, then prosper whenever the cycle turns. I've also bought a little ORIG with play money: I think it's either going to be worthless or multiples of its current value by 2017.
This technique worked well for me with financial stocks in 2009. Right now I'm down quite a bit, but that was the case for a while then with the financials. I know I'm not smart enough to pick the exact bottom, so getting good companies at good prices is all I'm aiming for. Hopefully history will repeat!
But all my stock purchases are small compared to my core mutual funds, my purchases are usually about 0.5% - 1.0% of my total portfolio each.
I am so far under with vanguards precious metals. I think my only hope is to invest a little as it continues a downward spiral with the goal my kids inherit it and come out ahead. Can't deal with selling and taking the liss
@varmint: That would be my strategy. Remember these things can turn around in a hurry, usually when no one expects it. Of course, if you hold in a taxable account, you could take the tax loss and swap into a similar fund...
Metals are a tough sled. I've bought-down in many areas in the past with some success - but not the metals patch. Burned there once or twice trying to call a low. Just too erratic & unpredictable.
That said, gold's rallied in recent days - even in the face of the Chinese devaluation. I think a lot of us with some skin in the game are hoping that continues.
Just because technical indicators are screaming "buy" does not mean commodities are the place to invest now. There are just as many reasons, if not many more, to avoid this sector. Yes, they can turn around quickly. But they can also continue their slide. Seems like a good reason to avoid making any kind of bet on commodities, and leave that up to talented active managers to make the decision as a piece of their overall strategy.
Comments
Commodity prices are now falling in all currencies and (quite strangely, to me) across all categories! [h/t Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture, 8/7/15]
While I own commodities in two different funds and converted one of those to Roth status in January, it hasn't exactly been a sunny day at the beach these past few months. I can "unconvert" the Roth up until October - but am hanging tough.
Agree with Ronald Regan in heaps. "There's gotta be pony around here somewhere."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession_of_1937–38
I notice that about 50% of tv commercials are for cars and trucks. Think the price for vehicles could be reduced if all those damnable ads didn't have to be paid for?
This technique worked well for me with financial stocks in 2009. Right now I'm down quite a bit, but that was the case for a while then with the financials. I know I'm not smart enough to pick the exact bottom, so getting good companies at good prices is all I'm aiming for. Hopefully history will repeat!
But all my stock purchases are small compared to my core mutual funds, my purchases are usually about 0.5% - 1.0% of my total portfolio each.
Metals are a tough sled. I've bought-down in many areas in the past with some success - but not the metals patch. Burned there once or twice trying to call a low. Just too erratic & unpredictable.
That said, gold's rallied in recent days - even in the face of the Chinese devaluation. I think a lot of us with some skin in the game are hoping that continues.