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WSJ: US Debt Myths

edited April 2011 in Off-Topic
http://www.google.com/search?q=The+Chinese+Own+Us,+and+Other+Fallacies

I do hope you can read the complete WSJ article through Google. If you can't the following is referenced by the article the portion referenced for US debt is taken from Doubleline Funds star manager Jeff Gundlach.

http://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-gundlach-presentation-2011-4#-6

According to the article of $13.5T debt:

Contrary to common belief, Chinese actually hold 10% of US Debt,
42.1% by U.S. individuals and institutions,
17.7% in the Social Security trust fund,
6% in the military retirement fund

Another myth addressed by the article:

Corporate taxes are very high. But when you consider loopholes etc. effective corporate taxation has fallen to 1% of GDP from 6% in 1950s. (source Conservative Tax Policy Center).

Personal Rant: Common people are asked to take bitter medicine while some in congress try to eliminate even more taxes for the rich and corporations.

Comments

  • A real myth too is that many "think" they are kinda rich.
    I still have pay records back to when I made $.35/hour GROSS.
    'Course then in 1966 work'in for the UAW and hauling in $3.08/ hour and a very nice new car could be had for $2,300. Heck, the new truck rebates these days are almost 3 times that old new car price.

    And let us not forget that if one chooses to say;......get a Masters Degree in their chosen field and gets real rich....well, ya better pay up....serves ya right for being so smart and ambitious.

    The Fools on the Hill in DC won't quite spending on the stupid stuff and they can tax every wage earner in this country at a 50% rate and nothing would change.....except for the next coming depression.

    With this link.......one may read all of the write; but the most important part is about half way down the write with the HISTORY. Heck this legislation made many "rich" according to the IRS law. The baselines were not adjusted for CPI or anything similar.
    The DC crowd has all the cards in the right places to keep one without wool.......can you say, " ponzi sheep".

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_Minimum_Tax

    A long term result of the market melt and the jobs situation will be an ever increasing barter economy and all items related. Yes, this is supposed to be reported on the 1040......I wish the Feds luck with this enforcement.

    Farewell,
    catch
  • I don't know what you are implying here John. This particular clock is certainly an attention grabber with some animated numbers to give the impression that it is a real-time display. Still, I see no relevance to advance the discussion regarding the nature of the US Dept. IMHO, It almost amounts to fear mongering...
  • Investor's point, and my position as well, is not to deny that we need to address some of our MAJOR federal spending issues. It is, rather, a desire that we address those issues HONESTLY, without ringing in bullshit red herrings like Planned Parenthood or PBS.

    How about some HONESTY in the discussion? How about some REAL facts:
    • Medical costs and military costs are the important items.
    • Social Security CAN be sorted out, with a combination of benefit reduction and increase in the age threshold.
    • The effective tax rates have historically been MUCH HIGHER for the higher-earning group, and they seem to have survived and flourished very nicely, thank you.
    • It is an INDISPUTABLE FACT that the income distribution has shifted to increase and favor that high-income group, to the detriment of the fast-disappearing middle class.
    • The Bush tax cuts for this high-earning group were promoted under the guise that they would use this "relief" to productively increase economic benefits for the entire economy. So how are you enjoying YOUR share of those benefits?
    • From the WSJ article: "The CBO found that Mr. Ryan's plan would, by 2030, essentially force 45% of retirees to pay for 68% of the costs currently paid for by Medicare." So Catch, you all ready to pay up, are you? Well, I'm sure that the private sector medical insurance coverage will step right up to help... after all, they have SUCH a good record already.

    Tighten down Medicare: Fine.
    Tighten down Social Security: Fine.
    Tighten down the military: Fine.
    Take a hard and honest look at the way this country delivers medical care. Fine.
    Take a hard and honest look at the retained income of the top earners.

    The congress is a circus and the clowns are in charge. But WE elected those clowns, didn't we?
  • To your personal rant at the start of this discussion "Personal Rant: Common people are asked to take bitter medicine while some in congress try to eliminate even more taxes for the rich and corporations.", if we don't cut taxes on the rich and corporations how are all the republicans and tea party members going to find jobs after they are booted out of office? Come on, have a little heart.
  • Remember when teachers, public employees, Planned Parenthood, NPR and PBS crashed the stock market, wiped out half of our 401Ks, took trillions in TARP money, spilled oil in the Gulf of Mexico, gave themselves billions in bonuses, and paid no taxes? Yeah, me neither.
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  • I apologize for closing the thread, while I sought clarification from David. It's now reopened, and so long as there's no abuse, it will remain that way. As always, I am learning.

    My apologies,
    chip

  • Hi OJ,

    Not sure about this part of your reply to my write...........

    "• From the WSJ article: "The CBO found that Mr. Ryan's plan would, by 2030, essentially force 45% of retirees to pay for 68% of the costs currently paid for by Medicare." So Catch, you all ready to pay up, are you? Well, I'm sure that the private sector medical insurance coverage will step right up to help... after all, they have SUCH a good record already."

    I am sure that I must have both a reading and thinking comprehension in place, as I don't connect the dots of my being ready to pay up; vs my original post words.

    The main theme of my original post is that the warm and fuzzy feeling for the middle class and below is a true myth of "I think I might almost be rich."

    A 40 year working today at an auto company in MI may quip that dear old Dad only made $3.08/hour in 1966; and heck I make $25/hour. BUT, the son is not more wealthy on any given day than were his parents, as the cost index of what his wage will buy him today is the same, relative to a new car price, or items of need.

    This is also the relationship of the link to the origin of the AMT (Alternative Minimum Tax) that was first aimed at a very few folks in this country. But, the congressional gamers in D.C. took little action to provide for inflation and/or wage creep indexing and now a married couple working for the auto company in MI find themselves "wealthy" in respect to the AMT and may have to pay a "special" wealth tax. Ya, right !!!

    I wrote in 2009 or 2010 about this pathway and the ongoing momentum of the falsehood of feeling rich. NOT that there are not those who are very, very wealthy; and this is another discussion.

    BUT; my dear 94 year old mother in law who remembers more from her lifetime than I do of my own; feels the full affect of the machinations of monetary policy and folly.

    During a recent casual chat, I again noted to her that had she been given a plain, jane 1oz of gold upon her birth (1917), vs a paper $1 U.S. bill; her purchasing power today from the gold coin would be about $1,400 vs the 3 cents purchasing power of the paper money. One heck of a price swing, eh?

    Enough from me.

    Everyone take care,
    Catch


  • I question whether anyone thought that the largest holder of US debt OVERALL was the Chinese. The thought they were the largest FOREIGN holder. Still, another country holding 10% of our debt is still not minor - they are - for use of a better term - a 10% shareholder in the corporation of the United States. That's not even going into how much of the debt the Fed owns, which should also be concerning. I'm guessing a lot of debt is held as collateral against financial bets, among 1800 other things.

    At the end of the day, one can debate the details, but our country is not in great financial health. There are other developed nations that aren't either, but that's no excuse for the fact that ours is not. Technology is improving, other foreign financial markets are deepening and people have more choices today. They are not going to abandon the US entirely, but every bit of investment that goes elsewhere is a negative for the country.

    We continue on the faith that we built up over the years - that faith can go on longer than anyone can expect, but when it ends, my guess is that it ends quickly because the first one out loses least.

    We need to prove to the rest of the world that we are still worthy of their financial faith and respect. We are not doing that - instead, while other countries are making difficult choices or making ambitious growth plans, the political stage in this country has been occupied by a level of bickering (and this is towards BOTH sides) that I frankly find embarrassing. It does nothing to progress the situation, and only serves to erode confidence in our country's future.

    We are coasting on past greatness. We need to prove to the rest of the world that we are the United States that, financially and otherwise, was the envy of many. We need to realize that we need to prove once again that we are a great place for investment from the rest of the world.

    I have no confidence in that actually happening, but hey.
  • You're doing a good job (seriously.) No worries.
  • Hi OJ,

    Not sure about this part of your reply to my write...........

    "• From the WSJ article: "The CBO found that Mr. Ryan's plan would, by 2030, essentially force 45% of retirees to pay for 68% of the costs currently paid for by Medicare." So Catch, you all ready to pay up, are you? Well, I'm sure that the private sector medical insurance coverage will step right up to help... after all, they have SUCH a good record already.
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  • msf
    edited April 2011
    Does America's Future Look Like Greece?
    http://www.cavcap.com/News_article_2010-2Q-DoesAmericasFuture-Greece.html

    "3. With respect to a possible default, the most significant difference between the US and Greece is that America has an independent monetary policy apparatus and a fiat currency. Therefore, US monetary policymakers can increase the supply of dollars and hold down interest rates which would ease the debt burden. Furthermore, should America become desperate, the government retains the extraordinary option of monetizing debt to avoid default. Conversely, Greece's monetary policy is controlled by the European Central Bank who has an uncertain and finite willingness to prevent a Greek default.

    For [reasons 1-3], the possibility of a Greek-style default in the United States is very remote for the foreseeable future."
  • And....US outlook downgraded to negative by S & P.
  • "We are coasting on past greatness."

    Scott, I couldn't agree more. Our forbears built huge amounts of permanent infrastructure- today we struggle to even maintain what they built, never mind add more. (It took less than four years to build the San Francisco/Oakland Bay Bridge: we've been screwing around for well over five years already just to replace the SHALLOW water part of it. And all of the main structural steelwork was built in... yes, China! Cripes!)

    Can anyone actually remember the last time our country achieved a truly remarkable or historical scientific, construction, or engineering accomplishment? (I'd vote for the space program, which is now slowly but surely falling into disinterest and disrepair.)
  • Not to worry, young man. When we stop learning we're as good as dead. BTW, great job on the site!

    Regards- OJ
  • No. I can't remember. Which is why I've been investing in emerging markets. Those countries aren't perfect either, but their ambitious plans for various parts of their economies are at least exciting and impressive (and I've gone into detail about quite a few in the past.) Our current infrastructure in this country is at a level that's distressing at best. Updating infrastructure will make us more competitive (among other benefits), but the money isn't there and there's all sorts of political ridiculousness to build anything substantial and multi-state (high-speed rail, etc.) Updating the power grid and water infrastructure would be other things that we should do but I'm guessing likely will not.
  • Outlook downgraded to negative. Was it much different 3 months ago? How about 6 month ago, even a year? In fact, in the last 6 months the prospects of the economy has turned for the better if you actually look for economic indicators. Municipal tax revenues have been increasing. As always S&P is behind the curve and in fact the fact that right now President Obama has his own suggestions and this comes up at this very moment suggest this is politically motivated move.

    Looks like market got over this very quickly today!
  • Hi Catch-
    No, I wasn't disagreeing with you at all... it was just that your post caught me in a bad mood and I just jumped on your bandwagon, amplifying some of the underlying causes & crap and trying to give you another example (the medicare proposal) to buttress your observations. Tell your young ones never to get sick.

    Take care- OJ
  • With respect to what I think is a truly remarkable engineering and construction accomplishment check out the Mike O'Callaghan - Pat Tillman Memorial Bridge over the Colorado River http://www.hooverdambypass.org/
  • You know, I forgot all about that in my general funk concerning our overall decline. You're quite right- that bridge is simply incredible. Thanks for starting my day off in a better mood.
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