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I agree on the US economy- C but I tend to believe it will have a moderate impact on My portfolio- B.
The reason is that I think the Euro with Greece will be different than the Euro without Greece, so whatever way they go will have an impact on the portion of my portfolio invested in Europe, if only from the perspective of how it translates into USD.
Hi @Maurice, I think if Greece exits the Euro the impact will be negative because a good portion of my European exposure is hedged and I think the Euro would be stronger. I also suspect the European stock markets won't do as well if Greece leaves. If they stay, which is what I think will happen, then it probably helps me. The Euro will be weaker and it's possible there may need to be additional stimulus from the ECB.
C if Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain don't follow suit. A if any of them do. That is what everyone is really worried about, not Greece itself, but the precedent it sets.
@LewisBraham Just my opinion, but I'm not thinking that any of those other countries will follow suit prompted by the Greek situation at this time, for a whole bunch of reasons, of which I'm sure you're aware.
Note: If that isn't a run-on sentence I give up. It's certainly an awkward construction, but I'm too lazy to fix it.
@OldJoe I agree it seems unlikely, but I am sure these other nations are watching these negotiations with Greece like a hawk. It's a test case for how much they can push back against Germany and the other members if they don't like the terms of their debt. But I agree with you. I also think ultimately the problems with Greece will be resolved, even if they do default. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brinkmanship
I think that while Greece will be resolved, different countries will be looking down that same glide path, most notably Spain and Italy. While the problems are not as immediately severe, the possible ramifications would be much greater. The market is getting creaky. But, then again, so am I.
Comments
The reason is that I think the Euro with Greece will be different than the Euro without Greece, so whatever way they go will have an impact on the portion of my portfolio invested in Europe, if only from the perspective of how it translates into USD.
Thanks for the post. Good idea!
Regards,
Ted
Note: If that isn't a run-on sentence I give up. It's certainly an awkward construction, but I'm too lazy to fix it.
I think that while Greece will be resolved, different countries will be looking down that same glide path, most notably Spain and Italy. While the problems are not as immediately severe, the possible ramifications would be much greater. The market is getting creaky. But, then again, so am I.