Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
FYI: Gundlach’s main mutual fund, the $45.6 billion DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund, is at the top of its class as it marks its fifth anniversary on April 6. It’s bested all 235 competitors in the U.S. intermediate bond fund category since inception, according to Morningstar Inc. In the previous five years, the TCW Total Return Bond Fund then-managed by Gundlach ranked second Regards, Ted http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-01/gundlach-tops-peers-at-five-years-as-caution-belies-image
"I don't often know where my ideas come from. Maybe it's the fact that I'm obsessively regimented in my analysis, borderline autistic. But whether it's bond selection or asset allocation, we can do it better than just about anybody around.."
Those "ideas" come from a Higher Power (intelligence level) than 99.9% of Humans....book it...tb
One "forecast" I believe, although I don't hold any: Cities are broke....tb
He foresees a major collapse in the municipal-bond market, beyond the declines to date, given the parlous condition of both state and local government finances. He is preparing, he says, by having established a joint venture with the Chicago financial firm RiverNorth. Among other things, it expects to scoop up closed-end municipal-bond funds in the next year or so when the predicted apocalypse arrives, driving fund prices down, he says, to as little as 40% of net asset value.
One "forecast" I believe, although I don't hold any: Cities are broke....tb
He foresees a major collapse in the municipal-bond market, beyond the declines to date, given the parlous condition of both state and local government finances. He is preparing, he says, by having established a joint venture with the Chicago financial firm RiverNorth. Among other things, it expects to scoop up closed-end municipal-bond funds in the next year or so when the predicted apocalypse arrives, driving fund prices down, he says, to as little as 40% of net asset value.
"I don't often know where my ideas come from. Maybe it's the fact that I'm obsessively regimented in my analysis, borderline autistic. But whether it's bond selection or asset allocation, we can do it better than just about anybody around.."
Those "ideas" come from a Higher Power (intelligence level) than 99.9% of Humans....book it...tb
One "forecast" I believe, although I don't hold any: Cities are broke....tb
He foresees a major collapse in the municipal-bond market, beyond the declines to date, given the parlous condition of both state and local government finances. He is preparing, he says, by having established a joint venture with the Chicago financial firm RiverNorth. Among other things, it expects to scoop up closed-end municipal-bond funds in the next year or so when the predicted apocalypse arrives, driving fund prices down, he says, to as little as 40% of net asset value.
If he predicted a crash in 2011 and it's gone up +60% since that time, imagine the fire sale when it does burst!
In all seriousness, Gundlach is one of the few talking heads that I respect and he calls trades publicly quite often, and seems to be right more times than not.
That is the key to all successful market trading - getting it right more often than wrong. All traders, (even you tb) will get it wrong from time to time. The best traders are better at minimizing their losses.
Am I missing something here? You linked a four year old article.
Oh, goodness, you're right. Sorry about that. I just went to look for the one I MEANT to link here. Sonsofbitches have got it blocked, unless you subscribe. Dated 03 January, 2015.
Am I missing something here? You linked a four year old article.
Oh, goodness, you're right. Sorry about that. I just went to look for the one I MEANT to link here. Sonsofbitches have got it blocked, unless you subscribe. Dated 03 January, 2015.
No problem. I do respect the opinions of Gundlach and overlay it with positive price action. Albeit, I can't recall him ever being overly enthusiastic for junk corporates during its run since the December 2008 bottom. Must not be his bailiwick
Celebrated bond-fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach has a healthy -- some might say overdeveloped -- ego.
"Look, I have a gift, or some would say a curse, of being able to have stunning insight into the reality of markets and the economy," Gundlach says.........But whether it's bond selection or asset allocation, we can do it better than just about anybody around."
"Though I rarely go public with specifics on stocks, I think the Standard & Poor's 500, which is now over 1300, will hit 500 in the next couple of years," he says.
"He foresees a major collapse in the municipal-bond market, beyond the declines to date, given the parlous condition of both state and local government finances. He is preparing, he says, by having established a joint venture with the Chicago financial firm RiverNorth. Among other things, it expects to scoop up closed-end municipal-bond funds in the next year or so when the predicted apocalypse arrives, driving fund prices down, he says, to as little as 40% of net asset value. "
Crash, nope......he wasn't correct. Nothing even remotely close to a "major collapse." Here's how muni bonds have done in each calendar year starting 2010
We'll look at : Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax Exempt VWITX This is a national muni fund (as opposed to a state specific muni fund) You can also see how the index performed and how the category performed
And what happened in 2013 was not a muni bond market issue, but rather a bond market as a whole issue......interest rates rose. For example, the Barclay's Aggregate bond market index was down roughly 2% that year.
Thanks for the information. He clearly struck-out on THAT score. I'll stick with him, though. DLFNX is a small position. Today, I just added a tiny bit to it, too.
Thanks for the information. He clearly struck-out on THAT score. I'll stick with him, though. DLFNX is a small position. Today, I just added a tiny bit to it, too.
His funds have done well. Better than his predictions. Then again these markets of recent years have tripped up many experts. I hold DLFNX as well.
I'm also looking at DLFNX, as well as DoubleLine Total Return. FWIW, you can get into the institutional share classes in an IRA at asset levels FAR below that required in a taxable account. IIRC, something like $5k, versus 100k......don't quote me on that
When TOTL launched, the fund materials and the portfolio made it look like it's going to be ~ the asset mix of DBLFX and ~ the duration approach of DBLTX, which ought to be a pretty good bet. So far it's returned only about half of those two oef's, though - and trading at ~ NAV, so the premium/discount isn't a factor in the returns. Looks decent, too early to tell, basically ...
Yeah, the $100k taxable/$5k IRA are the minimums if you buy directly from DoubleLine, and as far as I'm aware that's the deal with (most? all?) the supermarkets too. The I shares (typically? always?) have a TF at the supermarkets, but the E.R. is 25 basis points lower than the N shares.
The etf has a little higher E.R. than the oef I shares, but it's lower than the N shares (which is like Pimco prices BOND, PTTRX, PTTDX).
Comments
http://online.barrons.com/articles/SB50001424052970204442204576144662301971254?tesla=y
Those "ideas" come from a Higher Power (intelligence level) than 99.9% of Humans....book it...tb
He foresees a major collapse in the municipal-bond market, beyond the declines to date, given the parlous condition of both state and local government finances. He is preparing, he says, by having established a joint venture with the Chicago financial firm RiverNorth. Among other things, it expects to scoop up closed-end municipal-bond funds in the next year or so when the predicted apocalypse arrives, driving fund prices down, he says, to as little as 40% of net asset value.
In all seriousness, Gundlach is one of the few talking heads that I respect and he calls trades publicly quite often, and seems to be right more times than not.
His record is pretty good and his commentaries are interesting to listen to or read.
By Jonathan R. Laing
Updated Feb. 21, 2011
Gundlach made a couple of very significant predictions in 2011:
http://online.barrons.com/articles/SB50001424052970204442204576144662301971254?tesla=y
Celebrated bond-fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach has a healthy -- some might say overdeveloped -- ego.
"Look, I have a gift, or some would say a curse, of being able to have stunning insight into the reality of markets and the economy," Gundlach says.........But whether it's bond selection or asset allocation, we can do it better than just about anybody around."
"Though I rarely go public with specifics on stocks, I think the Standard & Poor's 500, which is now over 1300, will hit 500 in the next couple of years," he says.
"He foresees a major collapse in the municipal-bond market, beyond the declines to date, given the parlous condition of both state and local government finances. He is preparing, he says, by having established a joint venture with the Chicago financial firm RiverNorth. Among other things, it expects to scoop up closed-end municipal-bond funds in the next year or so when the predicted apocalypse arrives, driving fund prices down, he says, to as little as 40% of net asset value. "
Here's how muni bonds have done in each calendar year starting 2010
We'll look at : Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax Exempt VWITX
This is a national muni fund (as opposed to a state specific muni fund)
You can also see how the index performed and how the category performed
And what happened in 2013 was not a muni bond market issue, but rather a bond market as a whole issue......interest rates rose. For example, the Barclay's Aggregate bond market index was down roughly 2% that year.
FWIW, you can get into the institutional share classes in an IRA at asset levels FAR below that required in a taxable account. IIRC, something like $5k, versus 100k......don't quote me on that
The etf has a little higher E.R. than the oef I shares, but it's lower than the N shares (which is like Pimco prices BOND, PTTRX, PTTDX).