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David Iben who is the Portfolio Manager for Kopernik KGGIX/KGGAX is off to a rough start. Former manager of Nuveen Tradewinds Value Opportunities and had excellent returns.
Half his portfolio is in basic materials & energy, i.e. commodities. Had he been half in health care he'd have looked a genius. A bit too soon to tell whether or not he's right--is this a dip, or a long-term downturn in commodities?--but it certainly is a risky strategy. Then again, if you want outsized returns... He ain't an index hugger, that's for sure.
Roughly 18% is in Russia as well. He has the headwinds of Russian foreign policy and deflation in his way so I think he's right broadly speaking but he was too early. His AUM are down 15% in the last few months and some of that has to be withdrawals because I think he still had $1 billion when he was already down 7 or 9% YTD. He only has a bit less than 10% cash and I guess he needs to hold most of that for redemptions, so he doesn't have a big opportunity to add to positions he believes strongly in.
I would like to invest in the fund and I think he will eventually make a very big return, but I'm waiting until something seems to turn in his favor and I'll average in assuming it won't be a perfectly straight line once things start to turn. If I already held the fund I most likely wouldn't sell because I do believe in his theory and his history, but I'd be hoping I wasn't fully invested so that I could add more when it seemed appropriate.
As expat noted, this is not a fund that will follow an index. Much like Fairholme, this is closer to a hedge fund that makes the bets it's going to make - it may take time, but it's the journey the manager wants and you're welcome to wait for the payoff or not. Not sure I'd recommend it as a core position, as someone looking to beat the index year in/year out is going to be disappointed at times. Or to put it better, the hope is that you do very well over time but you have to be prepared for some definite inconsistency along the way.
I do believe that Iben's CEF was heavily in miners and the like, as well. As for healthcare, I'm heavily in healthcare, I wish it had been more of a help yesterday when everything even remotely oil-related was getting obliterated.
David Iben is a very smart investor, but that doesn't mean that you need to give him your money to manage. He is obviously taking concentrated bets on beaten down sectors that continue to be beaten down more (aka, value trap). And the chart for his fund -- using the 20/50/100EMAs -- looks ugly and is not improving. I would definitely consider this fund a sell and avoid. If one wants to bottom fish and has extreme patience and tolerance for pain, then I would take a look at RSX. But otherwise, I would recommend looking at more attractive global equity funds like DODWX, THOIX and VMVFX/VMNVX.
David Iben who is the Portfolio Manager for Kopernik KGGIX/KGGAX is off to a rough start. Former manager of Nuveen Tradewinds Value Opportunities and had excellent returns.
David Iben who is the Portfolio Manager for Kopernik KGGIX/KGGAX is off to a rough start. Former manager of Nuveen Tradewinds Value Opportunities and had excellent returns.
YTD Down -15.37
I'm seeing this as YTD up 2.92% KGGAX
The YTD quoted above is for last year, when the thread started.
Comments
I would like to invest in the fund and I think he will eventually make a very big return, but I'm waiting until something seems to turn in his favor and I'll average in assuming it won't be a perfectly straight line once things start to turn. If I already held the fund I most likely wouldn't sell because I do believe in his theory and his history, but I'd be hoping I wasn't fully invested so that I could add more when it seemed appropriate.
I do believe that Iben's CEF was heavily in miners and the like, as well. As for healthcare, I'm heavily in healthcare, I wish it had been more of a help yesterday when everything even remotely oil-related was getting obliterated.
David Iben is a very smart investor, but that doesn't mean that you need to give him your money to manage. He is obviously taking concentrated bets on beaten down sectors that continue to be beaten down more (aka, value trap). And the chart for his fund -- using the 20/50/100EMAs -- looks ugly and is not improving. I would definitely consider this fund a sell and avoid. If one wants to bottom fish and has extreme patience and tolerance for pain, then I would take a look at RSX. But otherwise, I would recommend looking at more attractive global equity funds like DODWX, THOIX and VMVFX/VMNVX.
Kevin
Regards,
Ted
http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=KGGAX®ion=usa&culture=en-US