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Another "Who Knew" Uber caps surge pricing during blizzard, but people still complain
by Dan Primack @danprimack JANUARY 26, 2015, 2:36 PM EST Uber is doing the best it can to prepare for the blizzard. Are you?
It’s snowing, so it must be time to be mad at Uber. (note, other common weather conditions for being mad at Uber include sunny, cloudy and night). ...If, for some reason, YOU failed to prepare adequately for a highly-publicized storm and Uber is your only way to get some much-needed supply (from closed stores?), then don’t complain about price or availability. YOU brought it upon YOUrself. http://fortune.com/2015/01/26/uber-caps-surge-pricing-during-blizzard-but-people-still-complain/
The city that never sleeps just put its transit to bed:
"The MTA is committed to the safety of its customers and its employees, and due to the forecast, will be suspending service on all bus, commuter rail and subway service at 11:00 p.m. this evening. If you don't have to travel between now and later this evening, we urge you to stay home."
The city that never sleeps just put its transit to bed:
"The MTA is committed to the safety of its customers and its employees, and due to the forecast, will be suspending service on all bus, commuter rail and subway service at 11:00 p.m. this evening. If you don't have to travel between now and later this evening, we urge you to stay home."
New Yorkers are tough, resourceful folks. The storm is a blip that will marginally and momentarily suppress consumer spending. Recovery will follow immediately as New York dumps the snow into the Hudson and East Rivers.
Business as usual. Only the news agencies benefit by promoting fear and worry. For investors, this is a not an issue.
The wind blew east: we heard the roar / Of Ocean on his wintry shore, (From Whittier's "Snowbound")
Been there when they had 4 inches of snow in a few hours time. Nothing can move in the city. If they really get 2 feet or more in a short period of time, the city will be near standstill. Not a knock on NY - Just the nature of the beast. Can't run big plows through there at 35-40 MPH and throw the snow 50 feet out of the the way like we do in northern Michigan. No place for it.
Dunno about the stock exchanges. Bloomberg radio was saying the traders can work from home on their computers - so they may stay open. I'm thinking maybe some reduced level of activity or shortened hours. Than again - they've got a Mayor. He may have some say in the matter. I think it's significant that all Broadway shows were cancelled tonight. Big money there. $200-$300 a pop for the better seats.
Sounds like the subways may not be running either tomorrow. Yep - they're underground. But I don't believe the people that run and service the equipment live down in that hole. Need to get to work.
They do handle it better than Seattle as an example. It only takes a heavy dusting and they are already cancelling classes and transit goes on snow routes. Of course Seattle has some big hills to contend with.
Whatever happened to that spirit when we were kids and we walked half a mile to school in snow halfway up our legs? (This was before govt bussing). Today's kids wIll not be able to tell those stories to the next generation.
Re: "Whatever happened to that spirit when we were kids and we walked half a mile to school in snow halfway up our legs?"
Ma, Pa and their attorney would be all over somebody's a** If their kids were made to walk a half mile through deep snow to attend school today.
By chance, we were in NYC last Feb when they got about 4" overnight. Took a bus to LGA through the worst of it in the morning for our flight home. The normally 20 minute trip took about 2 hours through a mass of other vehicles all spinning their wheels in the busy streets. And it really wasn't that much snow. Mayor deBlasio had insisted the schools stay open - but paid a dear price, as there was a storm of public criticism over his decision, which I'm sure many here will recall.
A lot of morning flights had been cancelled. But ours in the afternoon got out OK.
Watching the coverage, they had about 48 hours to prepare and post-Sandy, I am very sure they all took full advantage. They're all hunkered down around the fire at home making babies.
Yeah, expect a bloody huge baby boom 9 months out. Now if there was a way we could play it and make a buck.
And I still want to short Florida. Just read Nat Geo and climate change and coastal cities. Ouch.
From what I am reading, the forecast for a blizzard of immense proportions is not going to play out as the media predicted. There will be less snowfall and the weather forecasts are paring back the severity. Kids will probably be off from school so get those sleds ready.
The forecast was right, the geography was off a little, as is typical. More often than not, nor'easters veer northeast, crossing Long Island and Connecticut toward Boston. (The north east of the name comes from the counterclockwise winds hitting land from the northeast, meaning that the storm itself is to the east, out to sea, or LI.)
"yet another example of a failed forecast. Forecasters just can't forecast."
As a point of fact NOAA does a pretty damned good job of weather forecasting for the Central/Northern area of California at least. The seven-day forecast is usually very close to reality.
Forecast here in the Boston area was spot-on -- I'm about to go out and shovel 2 and a half feet of snow. Light and fluffy and incredibly beautiful snow!
The travel ban caught my attention. Usually they strongly suggest you do not travel unless absolutely necessary. Perhaps the folks in New England don't mind this bit of overreach?
Even without these external random events, weather forecasting is a challenge.
This is the current state of the art despite better physical modeling and vastly improved instruments and data collection stations. Given the feedback mechanisms, small measured weather errors quickly get magnified, and projections go off course in a complex manner.
Scoring forecasting accuracy is also a challenging assignment. Many measures exist and none are universally acceptable. But improvements are constantly being made. Much depends upon how dynamic local weather is. Overall, some folks believe weather forecasters achieve a 50 % accuracy, but it all depends on timeframe.
During WW II, I lived along the Jersey shore just outside of Seaside Heights, NJ. Weather spotters were located along the coast, and during the summer months, I visited one such station regularly. The spotter had a set of binoculars and mounted a 30 foot high wooden tower. That was his tool set.
Often, He allowed me to join him. If a storm was visually identified, the spotter would rush to his car and report the oncoming storm person to person. Later, the Army Signal Corp ran a line to the tower. Such was the state of technology in the WW II,era.
By the way, the spotter also searched the ocean for enemy submarines. Crude, but effective.
Much has happened since those lazy, glory days. Forecasting remains imperfect.
Actually, the forecast was reasonably accurate for outside Boston, not quite the wind levels widely, and no, most of us, in Mass. anyway, do not think of mandated and enforced prudence as gov overreach. Partly this is because there are just as many fools here as anywhere else, despite our other counter-characteristics. And partly it is because we do not have this new kneejerk thing about authority, and are sometimes able to weigh argument substance (unlike say Live Free / Die NH).
Legislating against stupidity has been widely successful.
Right on. A city (pin-point forecast) is much harder for them to get right than a broader geographic area - unless it's a really massive weather system capable of burying an entire state. This system apparantly wasn't the second variety. Along Lake Michigan we can get 2 feet of snow in one community, and only a few inches 10 or 20 miles to the north or south from lake-effect. However, when massive storms move up from the Gulf, that's a different story.
Media had a hey-day. Probably helped the bottom line of CNN and Weather Channel. A nice shot in the arm for local retailers I'd think (food stocks, generators, batteries, etc). Sorry to see Broadway cancel all their plays the first night. An incredible array of talent there - and hard work. From what I hear, it's a struggle for most financially.
The Mayor can't win. Got blasted last Feb for not canceling school after a 4-6 inch dusting of snow. He'll probably get hit on this call too.
Since weather immediately impacts daily decisions, folks always express divergent opinions on it, and its forecasted accuracy. It does matter. I suppose a measure of its success or failure depends on the weather's impact on your normal activities.
Weather experts have long recognized forecasting difficulties and modeling limitations, especially those coupled to hypersensitivity to initial condition inputs in any computer simulation.
There is a great story about how this was accidently discovered by Ed Lorenz many decades ago. His discovery came to be known as the Butterfly Effect. Here is a Link to an MIT telling of that story:
It's a fascinating tale. Please access the article.
Lorenz had stopped and then attempted to restart his computer simulation. From the article: "On this day, Lorenz was repeating a simulation he’d run earlier—but he had rounded off one variable from .506127 to .506. To his surprise, that tiny alteration drastically transformed the whole pattern his program produced, over two months of simulated weather."
In the weather forecasting business the nitty-gritty just doesn't matter, it matters greatly. Small effects can be quickly dampened or get greatly magnified in the nonlinear weather world.
Benoit Mandelbrot recognized similar nonlinear behavior in the investment marketplace. You might recall his classic "The (Mis)Behavior of Markets" book. These generate.booms and panics.
The Lorenz findings motivated work in Chaos and Complexity theory. Progress has been mixed in these challenging, computer-driven fields of science exploration. Typical of any scientific field, there are many failures before a single success is achieved.
I've enjoyed and learned much from these discussions. Thank you all.
Comments
Uber caps surge pricing during blizzard, but people still complain
by Dan Primack @danprimack JANUARY 26, 2015, 2:36 PM EST
Uber is doing the best it can to prepare for the blizzard. Are you?
It’s snowing, so it must be time to be mad at Uber. (note, other common weather conditions for being mad at Uber include sunny, cloudy and night).
...If, for some reason, YOU failed to prepare adequately for a highly-publicized storm and Uber is your only way to get some much-needed supply (from closed stores?), then don’t complain about price or availability. YOU brought it upon YOUrself.
http://fortune.com/2015/01/26/uber-caps-surge-pricing-during-blizzard-but-people-still-complain/
Any way to drive the masses into Pavlovian responses.
"The MTA is committed to the safety of its customers and its employees, and due to the forecast, will be suspending service on all bus, commuter rail and subway service at 11:00 p.m. this evening. If you don't have to travel between now and later this evening, we urge you to stay home."
http://alert.mta.info/
http://observer.com/2015/01/de-blasio-orders-indefinite-street-shutdown-tonight-during-blizzard/
http://webra.cas.sc.edu/hvri/feature/feb2013_notw.aspx
Snow, Snow - Pete Seeger
I studied in New York City for two years.
New Yorkers are tough, resourceful folks. The storm is a blip that will marginally and momentarily suppress consumer spending. Recovery will follow immediately as New York dumps the snow into the Hudson and East Rivers.
Business as usual. Only the news agencies benefit by promoting fear and worry. For investors, this is a not an issue.
Best Wishes.
Been there when they had 4 inches of snow in a few hours time. Nothing can move in the city. If they really get 2 feet or more in a short period of time, the city will be near standstill. Not a knock on NY - Just the nature of the beast. Can't run big plows through there at 35-40 MPH and throw the snow 50 feet out of the the way like we do in northern Michigan. No place for it.
Dunno about the stock exchanges. Bloomberg radio was saying the traders can work from home on their computers - so they may stay open. I'm thinking maybe some reduced level of activity or shortened hours. Than again - they've got a Mayor. He may have some say in the matter. I think it's significant that all Broadway shows were cancelled tonight. Big money there. $200-$300 a pop for the better seats.
Sounds like the subways may not be running either tomorrow. Yep - they're underground. But I don't believe the people that run and service the equipment live down in that hole. Need to get to work.
Whatever happened to that spirit when we were kids and we walked half a mile to school in snow halfway up our legs? (This was before govt bussing). Today's kids wIll not be able to tell those stories to the next generation.
By chance, we were in NYC last Feb when they got about 4" overnight. Took a bus to LGA through the worst of it in the morning for our flight home. The normally 20 minute trip took about 2 hours through a mass of other vehicles all spinning their wheels in the busy streets. And it really wasn't that much snow. Mayor deBlasio had insisted the schools stay open - but paid a dear price, as there was a storm of public criticism over his decision, which I'm sure many here will recall.
A lot of morning flights had been cancelled. But ours in the afternoon got out OK.
Watching the coverage, they had about 48 hours to prepare and post-Sandy, I am very sure they all took full advantage. They're all hunkered down around the fire at home making babies.
Yeah, expect a bloody huge baby boom 9 months out. Now if there was a way we could play it and make a buck.
And I still want to short Florida. Just read Nat Geo and climate change and coastal cities. Ouch.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
@rono Oh, you just had to go there, didn't ya? [and, in 1 yr, you'll probably be proven correct]
Yet another example of a failed forecast.
Forecasters just can't forecast. And that doubles down for financial forecasters as the records demonstrate.
Best Wishes for a dry, sunny day.
A line I really enjoy goes something like: "A calamity of immense proportions will befall you."
Phantom blizzard.
LI did get over 20" of snow, consistent with the forecast and a not surprising drift eastward of the storm.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/01/26/nyregion/snowfall-totals-around-the-region.html
As a point of fact NOAA does a pretty damned good job of weather forecasting for the Central/Northern area of California at least. The seven-day forecast is usually very close to reality.
Legislating stupidity has not worked before.
"The seven-day forecast is usually very close to reality."
Umm ... Let's see ..... Fire, Earthquake & Flood?
Even without these external random events, weather forecasting is a challenge.
This is the current state of the art despite better physical modeling and vastly improved instruments and data collection stations. Given the feedback mechanisms, small measured weather errors quickly get magnified, and projections go off course in a complex manner.
Scoring forecasting accuracy is also a challenging assignment. Many measures exist and none are universally acceptable. But improvements are constantly being made. Much depends upon how dynamic local weather is. Overall, some folks believe weather forecasters achieve a 50 % accuracy, but it all depends on timeframe.
During WW II, I lived along the Jersey shore just outside of Seaside Heights, NJ. Weather spotters were located along the coast, and during the summer months, I visited one such station regularly. The spotter had a set of binoculars and mounted a 30 foot high wooden tower. That was his tool set.
Often, He allowed me to join him. If a storm was visually identified, the spotter would rush to his car and report the oncoming storm person to person. Later, the Army Signal Corp ran a line to the tower. Such was the state of technology in the WW II,era.
By the way, the spotter also searched the ocean for enemy submarines. Crude, but effective.
Much has happened since those lazy, glory days. Forecasting remains imperfect.
Best Wishes.
Legislating against stupidity has been widely successful.
Right on. A city (pin-point forecast) is much harder for them to get right than a broader geographic area - unless it's a really massive weather system capable of burying an entire state. This system apparantly wasn't the second variety. Along Lake Michigan we can get 2 feet of snow in one community, and only a few inches 10 or 20 miles to the north or south from lake-effect. However, when massive storms move up from the Gulf, that's a different story.
Media had a hey-day. Probably helped the bottom line of CNN and Weather Channel. A nice shot in the arm for local retailers I'd think (food stocks, generators, batteries, etc). Sorry to see Broadway cancel all their plays the first night. An incredible array of talent there - and hard work. From what I hear, it's a struggle for most financially.
The Mayor can't win. Got blasted last Feb for not canceling school after a 4-6 inch dusting of snow. He'll probably get hit on this call too.
Regards
Since weather immediately impacts daily decisions, folks always express divergent opinions on it, and its forecasted accuracy. It does matter. I suppose a measure of its success or failure depends on the weather's impact on your normal activities.
Weather experts have long recognized forecasting difficulties and modeling limitations, especially those coupled to hypersensitivity to initial condition inputs in any computer simulation.
There is a great story about how this was accidently discovered by Ed Lorenz many decades ago. His discovery came to be known as the Butterfly Effect. Here is a Link to an MIT telling of that story:
http://www.technologyreview.com/article/422809/when-the-butterfly-effect-took-flight/
It's a fascinating tale. Please access the article.
Lorenz had stopped and then attempted to restart his computer simulation. From the article: "On this day, Lorenz was repeating a simulation he’d run earlier—but he had rounded off one variable from .506127 to .506. To his surprise, that tiny alteration drastically transformed the whole pattern his program produced, over two months of simulated weather."
In the weather forecasting business the nitty-gritty just doesn't matter, it matters greatly. Small effects can be quickly dampened or get greatly magnified in the nonlinear weather world.
Benoit Mandelbrot recognized similar nonlinear behavior in the investment marketplace. You might recall his classic "The (Mis)Behavior of Markets" book. These generate.booms and panics.
The Lorenz findings motivated work in Chaos and Complexity theory. Progress has been mixed in these challenging, computer-driven fields of science exploration. Typical of any scientific field, there are many failures before a single success is achieved.
I've enjoyed and learned much from these discussions. Thank you all.
Best Wishes.