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OK, I'll take your word for it..... Fascinating, engaging presentation from J. Gundlach, if you ask me. I would normally let my eyes glaze over with all the charts. But he made it understandable, even for a rank amateur like me. I took notes. I've never listened-in to anything like this before. Wow. Apart from ND and TX, net job growth (for which time period?) in the USA has been a net ZERO. Stunning. So, if shale gets too beat up (already underway) and those jobs vaporize... What THEN? ...................
@Crash Where did your link to the movie site go? That was super. Did you delete it, or was it deleted by the Hall Monitor's sanitation dept. because you violated an unwritten posting rule? I'm not getting it anymore (odd).
I don't know who does JG's graphics, but they are always thoughtful and well-constructed. Whether you agree or don't, isn't it refreshing to get some food for thought, based on some real data that's been intelligently worked over? [you can get all the slides by going back into the webcast site and using the e-mail listed there to request them; it's a breeze]
Hi. I removed it, since my guess was just incorrect. The link was to the tv series which lasted for 2 or 3-seasons. I never watched it, but knew of it. From this page, you can of course navigate to the main page for future queries. And apparently (clacy) the 1980s iteration was better. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1307824/fullcredits
Particularly loved the part about jumping in too early on falling commodities and stocks versus doing so with bond. The former, "you can get killed," he says...while the latter you just underperform.
His bleak view of BitCoin, current rendition anyway.
His guidance on contagion...to always be wary of it. Like sub-prime mortgages initially downplayed by Mr. Bernanke.
He's bullish on India long term, cause of demographics.
He thinks natural gas price was more indicative of "right" price for oil than recent $100/barrel crude prices.
It's hard not to listen, since he's on a roll of getting it right lately.
All that said, he's selling bonds.
Which means that either naturally or with intent, he's always building a wall of worry.
For example, US stocks best place to be...but he can't see the gains continuing..."overextended" as he shows only growth since bull began, but not the miserable performance US stocks have suffered for the past 15 years.
For example, continued growth in US, except those regions impacted by low oil.
Wall of worry, expect when comes to raising interest rates. Then, it's more of a warning to Fed on bad consequences if they do so.
Along with a reminder that DoubleLine DBLTX may close soon...but not in 1st quarter.
Thank you for the followup. I recall the beginning of the equity move in August of 1982 while dwelling upon numbers, and listening to discussions from The Nightly Business Report with Paul Kangas.
You noted: "All that said, he's selling bonds. Which means that either naturally or with intent, he's always building a wall of worry."
>>>Yes, he is a bond fella. Do you feel his "pitch" is for this only; and that his statements and/or views reflect a wall of worry? Or is he only expressing what he feels he has discovered "at the moment, subject to change"?
My most simple view of available investments today remains with the fact that the overwhelming exposure via any form of media remains equity-centric. Flag wavers of every notion regarding the direction of equity investments in one sector and/or country are on the opposite side of the fence every business day of the week; and they are in full expression on tv, printed articles and internet sites, of course. Some of these folks also express what could be called a "wall of worry"; although they are equity folks, by nature. Equity folks may often note that bond folks are "worried" about something.
The equity stock folks may protect against "the wall" using equity shorts or put options. This could be their method.
A bond person may use bonds in the same fashion (protection), if they perceive a problem in equity/general economic areas, which could also include another bond type, the junk bond.
One could suspect those who choose to hold what they feel are decent equity style funds, even in shaky market periods; but who do not choose to use inverse funds for protection, may rely on investment grade bonds for a cushion; which could be a mix of gov't and corp. type.
Mr. Gundlach and company sells bond funds for a fee, of course. As long as he does not charge an arm and leg more than a similar active managed bond fund; I don't find an effort at his being a shill for his own fund groups to offer enough monetary reward. He has enough money. I suggest, that he is proud of and aware of his skills in this area of investments and his overview of many other areas that affect investments. If I do not have to pay extra for his ego and/or lose money holding his funds; he may demostrate as he feels the need.
We do not hold any DoubleLine products.
'Course, in the end; the above may be a very good argument for holding 5 of the best long term balanced or equity-income funds and relax, eh?
We remain U.S. centered with equity and bond holdings; with the exception of international exposure to companies held and their earnings generated, via a fund's holdings.
Maybe I am off on this thinking but I never regarded Doubleline's offerings as large core holdings for one's portfolio. Now I know people that have large holdings in some of his funds but they also have big holdings in other funds as well. DLTNX would be the exception in this case and I would consider that fund as a core holding. Most of the funds are alts or alt like.
As for his prognications, he shows high confidence when he speaks versus someone who is trying to hedge themselves so that they are right no matter what.
@JohnChisum. If I ever get back into bonds I would definitely consider DoubleLine Total Return and Core Fixed Income funds. If they remain open, of course.
Comments
I don't know who does JG's graphics, but they are always thoughtful and well-constructed. Whether you agree or don't, isn't it refreshing to get some food for thought, based on some real data that's been intelligently worked over? [you can get all the slides by going back into the webcast site and using the e-mail listed there to request them; it's a breeze]
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1307824/fullcredits
I too enjoyed his views, once again.
Particularly loved the part about jumping in too early on falling commodities and stocks versus doing so with bond. The former, "you can get killed," he says...while the latter you just underperform.
His bleak view of BitCoin, current rendition anyway.
His guidance on contagion...to always be wary of it. Like sub-prime mortgages initially downplayed by Mr. Bernanke.
He's bullish on India long term, cause of demographics.
He thinks natural gas price was more indicative of "right" price for oil than recent $100/barrel crude prices.
It's hard not to listen, since he's on a roll of getting it right lately.
All that said, he's selling bonds.
Which means that either naturally or with intent, he's always building a wall of worry.
For example, US stocks best place to be...but he can't see the gains continuing..."overextended" as he shows only growth since bull began, but not the miserable performance US stocks have suffered for the past 15 years.
For example, continued growth in US, except those regions impacted by low oil.
Wall of worry, expect when comes to raising interest rates. Then, it's more of a warning to Fed on bad consequences if they do so.
Along with a reminder that DoubleLine DBLTX may close soon...but not in 1st quarter.
c
8 years 1982-1989 and 9 years 1991-1999. Just trying to kill the myth .
Thank you for the followup.
I recall the beginning of the equity move in August of 1982 while dwelling upon numbers, and listening to discussions from The Nightly Business Report with Paul Kangas.
Regards,
Catch
You noted: "All that said, he's selling bonds.
Which means that either naturally or with intent, he's always building a wall of worry."
>>>Yes, he is a bond fella. Do you feel his "pitch" is for this only; and that his statements and/or views reflect a wall of worry? Or is he only expressing what he feels he has discovered "at the moment, subject to change"?
My most simple view of available investments today remains with the fact that the overwhelming exposure via any form of media remains equity-centric. Flag wavers of every notion regarding the direction of equity investments in one sector and/or country are on the opposite side of the fence every business day of the week; and they are in full expression on tv, printed articles and internet sites, of course. Some of these folks also express what could be called a "wall of worry"; although they are equity folks, by nature.
Equity folks may often note that bond folks are "worried" about something.
The equity stock folks may protect against "the wall" using equity shorts or put options. This could be their method.
A bond person may use bonds in the same fashion (protection), if they perceive a problem in equity/general economic areas, which could also include another bond type, the junk bond.
One could suspect those who choose to hold what they feel are decent equity style funds, even in shaky market periods; but who do not choose to use inverse funds for protection, may rely on investment grade bonds for a cushion; which could be a mix of gov't and corp. type.
Mr. Gundlach and company sells bond funds for a fee, of course. As long as he does not charge an arm and leg more than a similar active managed bond fund; I don't find an effort at his being a shill for his own fund groups to offer enough monetary reward. He has enough money. I suggest, that he is proud of and aware of his skills in this area of investments and his overview of many other areas that affect investments.
If I do not have to pay extra for his ego and/or lose money holding his funds; he may demostrate as he feels the need.
We do not hold any DoubleLine products.
'Course, in the end; the above may be a very good argument for holding 5 of the best long term balanced or equity-income funds and relax, eh?
We remain U.S. centered with equity and bond holdings; with the exception of international exposure to companies held and their earnings generated, via a fund's holdings.
Regards,
Catch
As for his prognications, he shows high confidence when he speaks versus someone who is trying to hedge themselves so that they are right no matter what.
@Catch. Good stuff!