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Barry Ritholtz: Time, Not Timing, Is Key To Investment Success
This is not about market timing. First of all that phrase is getting misused. The Market Timing Scandal of Janus et. al infamy was about people in the know front running others.
When we give our money to a fund manager, do we expect him to buy stocks when they are overvalued and sell when they are undervalued? Of course not. We want him to do the reverse. So is this market timing? Then why is what individual investors do market timing? I'm sick and tired of same crap doled out again and again. Keep DCAing all the time. Purified Bovine Waste.
Look at these charts.
Imagine you invested at peak of Dot Com Bubble Year 2000. See the differences. Don't freakin' tell me to diversify and DCA. I'm more likely to not do something stupid and sell and buy at wrong time if I thought for myself instead of being force fed the same old crap again and again and again.
Barry had a great, lively blog in the early days. I had many conversations with him and think he's a good guy. But he makes a lot of money from AUM now and I think that colors what he writes now whether he notices it or not. I've seen this formula play out over and over again.
Comments
When we give our money to a fund manager, do we expect him to buy stocks when they are overvalued and sell when they are undervalued? Of course not. We want him to do the reverse. So is this market timing? Then why is what individual investors do market timing? I'm sick and tired of same crap doled out again and again. Keep DCAing all the time. Purified Bovine Waste.
Look at these charts.
Imagine you invested at peak of Dot Com Bubble Year 2000. See the differences. Don't freakin' tell me to diversify and DCA. I'm more likely to not do something stupid and sell and buy at wrong time if I thought for myself instead of being force fed the same old crap again and again and again.
http://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/test-market-timing-model?s=y&assetsToHold=1&movingAverageType=1&outOfMarketAssetType=1&timingModel=3&endYear=2013&symbol=vfinx&initialAmount=10000&windowSize=10&start=1&startYear=2000&rebalancePeriod=1&volatilityWindowSize=0
http://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/test-market-timing-model?s=y&assetsToHold=1&movingAverageType=1&outOfMarketAssetType=1&timingModel=3&endYear=2013&symbol=SPMIX&initialAmount=10000&windowSize=10&start=1&startYear=2000&rebalancePeriod=1&volatilityWindowSize=0