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Individuals Pile Into Stocks As Pros Say Bull Is Spent
Birinyi sounds about right, as he's been for a while. Traditionally, when individuals start to pile in, we're near the end but not quite there yet. The economy also looks closer to the middle than the end of the business cycle.
Actually he seemed relatively bullish with his comments.
"Birinyi expects the S&P 500 to keep advancing as bears capitulate and pick up stocks.
Durable, Sustainable
“This is a durable and sustainable bull market,” he said in a July 9 phone interview from Westport, Connecticut. “It’s going to surprise us because I still don’t think we’ve got to a point where water is boiling yet.”
Birinyi, one of the first analysts to advise clients to buy when stocks were bottoming after the 2008 financial crisis, predicts the S&P 500 will rise to 2,100 (SPX) by December."
I'm relatively bullish too. For me, near the end but not quite there yet means another couple years, and probably another 200-400 points on the S&P before we get another bear. But considering how far we've come, even 400 points would stil put most of the gains in this bull in the past.
My point was that retail investors starting to pile is trditionally an indicator we're in the 7th inning or so, but not quite at the end of the game. It's when folks at cocktail parties are bragging over how much they made ever since they finally bought in last year, and spontaneously offer you some tips, that we're at the end.
FWIW, my observation is that retail investors are NOT jumping into the market at all. Bond fund flows continue to be positive. The average investor is cautious, not greedy. Yes, we are due for a correction, but we are a long, long ways from the euphoria of 2000 and 2007.
Comments
"Birinyi expects the S&P 500 to keep advancing as bears capitulate and pick up stocks.
Durable, Sustainable
“This is a durable and sustainable bull market,” he said in a July 9 phone interview from Westport, Connecticut. “It’s going to surprise us because I still don’t think we’ve got to a point where water is boiling yet.”
Birinyi, one of the first analysts to advise clients to buy when stocks were bottoming after the 2008 financial crisis, predicts the S&P 500 will rise to 2,100 (SPX) by December."
My point was that retail investors starting to pile is trditionally an indicator we're in the 7th inning or so, but not quite at the end of the game. It's when folks at cocktail parties are bragging over how much they made ever since they finally bought in last year, and spontaneously offer you some tips, that we're at the end.
That's my guess, anyway!