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For those with high cash levels, when will you start to buy?
Reply to @rono: Hi Rono! Very glad you reiterated your 'buy-the-uptrend' scenario. I tend to forget that, need the reminder. Regarding ag: I have a very small stake in Elements Rogers Ag ETN (RJA), and am watching some South American stuff like CRESY. Soros is down there too with AGRO. MOO's good too (despite controversy over Monsanto) and DBA. Back in the FA days I said I would watch a midwest farmland MLP and post if I had more info. Well, I'm still looking for more info Take care!
I always have a bottom line number and when it gets approached I have to bail even though I own mostly conservative, balanced and flexible portfolio funds. The day of the first 5% rebound following the first 5% drop I sold about 50% of my fund investments. I did not sell any shares of PRPFX, RNDLX, DBLTX, VWINX, GLRBX, WEFIX. Totally agree with Louise Yamada "would rather be out of the market wishing I was in that in the market wishing I was out" (thanks Catch). Holding a lot of cash in Vanguard MM but have moved some into RPHYX which I'm watching carefully and increased positions in RNDLX, DBLTX and added HSTRX for now.
Reply to @JoeNoEskimo: Totally agree with JoeNo that investing has become gambling. Don't think it was always that way. At least not what they taught in school. Today there seems no logic whatever. Checked cd rates and your looking at maybe half percent if ya willing to lock her up for couple three years. H%#* your better off burying it in in a hole at them rates. Why would ya trust FDIC insurance when some politicians appear willing to see govt. default?
Now whoever decided Joe or Jane or Molly down at the dollar store would be better investing their hard earned cash in the markets themselves than having a company sponsored retirement plan ought have their %$&^#% head examined. H@#% this is enough to give Buffet or Lynch ulcers. Whats little feller doin in these crazy markets? Trends last fantastically long nowadays and go to fantastic extremes. Could be computers as some speculate. I think has more do either with crowd mentality with so many people playing or maybe the big players with the skills and information to push everything to its limits. Maybe these fellers figure govt will bail them out rather than see economy go down the tubes when things backfire.
And another thing, was reported on the news yesterday that in this country 1% of the population controls a third of the wealth. Now with so many poor people whose gonna be left to buy them cars and houses to keep the economy running?
Now I did try gambling one time and remember blowing the whole wad on a football game where the 43 point "favorite" folded in the first quarter and couldn't get out of it's own way. Cured me for good. So I will say at least in investing your likely to end up with some of your $$ left at the end. But maybe not much.
I haven't stopped by in a while ... hey looks like 2008 all over again
Doing more of the same this time this time around: Five or so years from retirement: Still saving like crazy, some tax harvesting of obvious long time losers like DODGX and VEURX (and even some QQQ that's been stinking up my portfolio since 2000), buying on the dips but limiting my bets to a thousand or so a week (so as not to fall into the "falling bloody axe" trap.) This time around I have given up on managed funds almost completely. Vanguard lets me trade their ETFs free, so I can consolidate into sectors like VPU, VDE, VWO, VTI a few shares at a time..
Asset allocation worked for me 2008-2010. As stocks fell, my cash increased to about 15%, I bought until cash fell to 10 or 12%, since late 2010 I've seen mostly saving cash and conservative allocation sector funds. Now it's back to stocks and conservative allocation funds. I don't think S&P500 will fall much below 1000, but 1500 is a long way away.
Reply to @hawkmountain: yup...u got that right sir, you need probably 20 unopenned barrels of good wine, some digged up underground storage for dried meat/cheese, water/plenty of canned food, some oil for energy, a couple of shot gun and ammunitions, and two large huntin' huskies dogs, and you've got yourself a bunker that may survive WWIII & armagedon !!...
Maurice, by one definiton, we have been in a bear market since about August 11. That was when that the 50-day moving average of SPX's price fell below its 200-day moving average. So rather than basing the deployment of cash on the level of the DJIA, one could wait until the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average.
I don't think I'm aggressively buying here. I'm comfortable holding stock at these levels, but I don't think a 15% drop justifies taking a more aggressive equity position right now. I am concerned about the possibility of something very ugly happening, such as a Sovereign default and a European banking crisses. My guess is we won't have a repeat of 2008 but there is a possibility of a much stronger crash.
At the end of the month I will be reducing a position in FSICX to increase cash levels and to reduce my exposure to both high yield and treasuries. I will be also opening a modest position in MAPIX with an eye on increasing my equity exposure later.
Comments
Hi Rono! Very glad you reiterated your 'buy-the-uptrend' scenario. I tend to forget that, need the reminder.
Regarding ag: I have a very small stake in Elements Rogers Ag ETN (RJA), and am watching some South American stuff like CRESY. Soros is down there too with AGRO. MOO's good too (despite controversy over Monsanto) and DBA. Back in the FA days I said I would watch a midwest farmland MLP and post if I had more info. Well, I'm still looking for more info
Take care!
Holding a lot of cash in Vanguard MM but have moved some into RPHYX which I'm watching carefully and increased positions in RNDLX, DBLTX and added HSTRX for now.
Now whoever decided Joe or Jane or Molly down at the dollar store would be better investing their hard earned cash in the markets themselves than having a company sponsored retirement plan ought have their %$&^#% head examined. H@#% this is enough to give Buffet or Lynch ulcers. Whats little feller doin in these crazy markets? Trends last fantastically long nowadays and go to fantastic extremes. Could be computers as some speculate. I think has more do either with crowd mentality with so many people playing or maybe the big players with the skills and information to push everything to its limits. Maybe these fellers figure govt will bail them out rather than see economy go down the tubes when things backfire.
And another thing, was reported on the news yesterday that in this country 1% of the population controls a third of the wealth. Now with so many poor people whose gonna be left to buy them cars and houses to keep the economy running?
Now I did try gambling one time and remember blowing the whole wad on a football game where the 43 point "favorite" folded in the first quarter and couldn't get out of it's own way. Cured me for good. So I will say at least in investing your likely to end up with some of your $$ left at the end. But maybe not much.
Doing more of the same this time this time around: Five or so years from retirement: Still saving like crazy, some tax harvesting of obvious long time losers like DODGX and VEURX (and even some QQQ that's been stinking up my portfolio since 2000), buying on the dips but limiting my bets to a thousand or so a week (so as not to fall into the "falling bloody axe" trap.) This time around I have given up on managed funds almost completely. Vanguard lets me trade their ETFs free, so I can consolidate into sectors like VPU, VDE, VWO, VTI a few shares at a time..
Asset allocation worked for me 2008-2010. As stocks fell, my cash increased to about 15%, I bought until cash fell to 10 or 12%, since late 2010 I've seen mostly saving cash and conservative allocation sector funds. Now it's back to stocks and conservative allocation funds. I don't think S&P500 will fall much below 1000, but 1500 is a long way away.
yup...u got that right sir, you need probably 20 unopenned barrels of good wine, some digged up underground storage for dried meat/cheese, water/plenty of canned food, some oil for energy, a couple of shot gun and ammunitions, and two large huntin' huskies dogs, and you've got yourself a bunker that may survive WWIII & armagedon !!
At the end of the month I will be reducing a position in FSICX to increase cash levels and to reduce my exposure to both high yield and treasuries. I will be also opening a modest position in MAPIX with an eye on increasing my equity exposure later.