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Monday is going to be interesting. It would appear as if those who believe these people will not go past the deadline of the 17th may want to reconsider that. These people are not rational. The market, however, will act before a deadline if it starts to get to that point.
The Democrats will need to cough something up such that Boehner doesn't look like a complete idiot for holding the economy hostage for no reason. Though of course, the Democrats also cannot reward the opposition party for hostage taking.
Not really a good choice here....I would place the odds of default at about 40% at this stage. I expect the market to punish the innocent on Monday.
Reply to @Ted: I like your optimism and hope you are spot-on. Market has priced in a resolution the past two trading days so if none, it could be real ugly Monday. Albeit a great time to add to positions. Futures strong? We will know when they open Sunday at 6:00 EST.
A proposal put forward by Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) to temporarily raise the debt limit and reopen the government in exchange for delaying the medical-device tax in the Affordable Care Act and other concessions seemed to be falling to the wayside. Democrats say that they don't consider reopening the government and raising the debt ceiling as concessions by the GOP in a negotiation.
That's what Congressional negotiation looks like in public. I'm betting Schumer's there to float taking future debt ceiling votes off the table. That's something they can work with.
The Tea Party is upset because they are starting to figure out their votes are used to give corporations tax breaks in the final congressional "compromise" every year. What this fight highlights is how Congress compromise each year. Nobody gets everything but if you control you get more. The House is proposing the other side get less. What we are witnessing is the nonviolent tranfer of power from one party to the other party. They will vote to raise the debt ceiling but the party may very well break apart over it. They will also open government back up too because the executive will just ratchet up the pressure. They have to figure out they represent people not principles and they will.
Stupidity? "Will they be right? There's still 10 days to go and while most believe the GOP is not THAT stupid...I'm always reminded of a quote (from Einstein? who knows):"
"The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits."
What? No Simpson-Bowles “Perhaps tomorrow will be a bright day,” Reid said on the Senate floor Monday night. “We’re not quite there yet.” McConnell echoed those sentiments, saying that “substantial progress” had been made that day.
A framework that has emerged from the talks involves funding the government at current levels through mid-January -- when another round of sequester cuts kicks in -- and raising the debt ceiling through mid-February. The agreement might also include the start of a formal conference on the budget by the middle of December. There is still talk over various attachments, such as income verification for Obamacare subsidies.
Yeah, 'and the madness of crowds'. feh. cretins. How are WE going to profit from their madness boys and girls. Right now it looks like they will either go over now or in a few months if they somehow pass a stop gap bill. Hell, all they've been talking about is a 3-4 month breather and WTF. Look at the way this is set up. The house tea party wing are all in safe seats and the folks that paid for them and voted for them are either playing or own am talk radio. They have absolutely no reason to compromise on anything at all. None. They are safe if they don't because they are from gerrymandered districts where everything is decided at the primary.
So, can Boehner pass a bill through with dems and moderate republicans? Sure, but if he does he will may the speakership. Can he win enough concessions to appease the tea baggers? Only if the Pres and Reid are willing . . . and why should they be? Right now they're watching the republican party self destruct.
Anywho, there is a damn good change that we will be driven to default - if not now - soon. I'm going to raise a little cash (take some profits and look at any tax losses I may wish to capture) and have a bit of mad money on hand should these clowns drive us over the cliff. If we default, the markets should puke but for how long? The Fed is going to be printing $ 24/7/365 for QE . . . nth.
Keep in mind though that the Fed can never, ever stop with QE. Never.
Comments
Regards,
Ted
http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/politicsnow/la-pn-government-shutdown-senate-20131012,0,1788717,print.story
Not really a good choice here....I would place the odds of default at about 40% at this stage. I expect the market to punish the innocent on Monday.
"Will they be right? There's still 10 days to go and while most believe the GOP is not THAT stupid...I'm always reminded of a quote (from Einstein? who knows):"
"The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits."
http://markettechreports.blogspot.com/2013/10/debt-ceiling-crisis-what-crisis.html
Updated chart of IEF
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IEF&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p02352069650
“Perhaps tomorrow will be a bright day,” Reid said on the Senate floor Monday night. “We’re not quite there yet.” McConnell echoed those sentiments, saying that “substantial progress” had been made that day.
A framework that has emerged from the talks involves funding the government at current levels through mid-January -- when another round of sequester cuts kicks in -- and raising the debt ceiling through mid-February. The agreement might also include the start of a formal conference on the budget by the middle of December. There is still talk over various attachments, such as income verification for Obamacare subsidies.
Read more: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/10/15/senate_inches_toward_deal_but_obstacles_remain_120334.html?
Yeah, 'and the madness of crowds'. feh. cretins. How are WE going to profit from their madness boys and girls. Right now it looks like they will either go over now or in a few months if they somehow pass a stop gap bill. Hell, all they've been talking about is a 3-4 month breather and WTF. Look at the way this is set up. The house tea party wing are all in safe seats and the folks that paid for them and voted for them are either playing or own am talk radio. They have absolutely no reason to compromise on anything at all. None. They are safe if they don't because they are from gerrymandered districts where everything is decided at the primary.
So, can Boehner pass a bill through with dems and moderate republicans? Sure, but if he does he will may the speakership. Can he win enough concessions to appease the tea baggers? Only if the Pres and Reid are willing . . . and why should they be? Right now they're watching the republican party self destruct.
Anywho, there is a damn good change that we will be driven to default - if not now - soon. I'm going to raise a little cash (take some profits and look at any tax losses I may wish to capture) and have a bit of mad money on hand should these clowns drive us over the cliff. If we default, the markets should puke but for how long? The Fed is going to be printing $ 24/7/365 for QE . . . nth.
Keep in mind though that the Fed can never, ever stop with QE. Never.
peace,
rono