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It likely depends on your time horizon. If you're thinking of this as something that you'll be holding or building over the next 10-15 years (à la David), it doesn't earthly matter whether you buy now or in three months, at this level or 7% up or down from here. If you're apt to move between funds every six months or year, you need a system (à la Charles) to time your movements and you need to be following the dictates of that system.
Reply to @David_Snowball: Reducing Funds. And while I've been stupid going into narrowly focused funds, I actually posted I would prefer getting emerging market exposure using diversified international fundsnd.
So I sold CIVVX, CEMVX lately. And plan to buy CIOVX which invests in combination of the two. Similarly, thinking of getting emerging market exposure using WAGOX or WAIGX and SGFIX. Picking my Wasatch's, and WAEMX loses out.
Reply to @VintageFreak: Cool. Thanks! I'm always interested in learning more about how folks are thinking through the choices between good options. The September issue will be live this evening and in it I talk a little bit about my own (profoundly uninteresting) portfolio and what I've been thinking about doing with it.
The more I spend thinking about it, the more I think this type of judgment is something I'm not capable of making. When you buy a fund, you're buying a basket of securities run by some manager, so you probably buy it because you have (1) an opinion on those securities, possibly including things like the currency they trade in or, (2) an opinion on the manager. I don't think I'm capable of (1) in any intelligent way. I've looked at some of the holding of SFGIX - I don't have anything intelligent to say about any of them - and I've looked at relative valuations between developing and developed stock - again I don't have anything to say about them. As for (2), Andrew Foster appears to be very bright and very capable.
The more I think about it, I don't know what I think about the wisdom of owning some slice of the market that I don't have any particular conviction in. Nothing I've seen has convinced me that I have any special insight into the prospects of emerging market stocks and I wonder if it is wise to have any more or less than I would have in an index fund. As for risk control, I can always hold more cash and less stock.
I've sold off my SFGIX for tax purposes and I'm waiting the requisite 30 days before I do anything with the money. I'm leaning towards rolling the money into VSS and VIG, which are the index funds I hold, but I don't know and I don't love the idea of abandoning something that has lost value.
Fish or cut bait? Sometimes it is wise to cut bait. I know what you're talking about, I know what you mean. There's a great deal that's just too complex for me, too. But in this case, from Square One, I have been betting on Foster's own acumen. I hope I was correct. I still think it's simply too early to give up on this one. SFGIX.
I'd wait until it kicks above some standard moving-average metric, pick one ... it's below all of them, and has been below the 20 since the end of April, so I think at the very minimum, I'd hold out until it breaks above the 20 and stays there a few days at least.
Glad you asked the question -- I want to go back to adding small amounts to SFGIX at some point, and your post got me started thinking about a target level for taking the plunge.
SQM up big again today (4%). Looks like it may have finally stopped falling. Here's Schwab performance chart showing comparison with 3 and 10 month averages:
Here's same look at VALE:
Let's hope worst over for these two new holdings. And, Seafarer will benefit going forward.
Here's look at SFGIX:
SFGIX is up 1.9% past five days.
Down 3.2% past month. Down 8.6% since May Day. Down 4% YTD.
Up 6.8% past year. Up 10% since inception 2/15/2012.
Fingers-crossed, the improvement continues and Fed and Syria do not send things south again.
Here's reminder of top holdings from Seafarer July conference call:
Reply to @Charles: I Bought Some SFGIX Yesterday, I Was Afraid If I Waited Any Longer It Would Keep Going Up. So I Am Glad To See Your Latest Post About It. I Used To Own FTEMX For My Emerging Market Exposure (but i lost confidence in it)
Comments
Regards,
Ted
But it's not really reversed its decline than began in May. Tracking pretty much like bonds.
Remains below 50 and 200 day averages, if you follow that sort of stuff.
It is besting other EM funds YTD, despite the declines.
VALE holding starting to recover perhaps, but SQM still trending down.
You got actions pending from Fed and instability in Syria.
Is it good time to buy anything right now?
Maybe better to wait for a some clarity, if that's possible these days.
So, I think I'll echo Ted's position on this one.
Here's M* YTD chart:
As ever,
David
For what it's worth,
David
So I sold CIVVX, CEMVX lately. And plan to buy CIOVX which invests in combination of the two. Similarly, thinking of getting emerging market exposure using WAGOX or WAIGX and SGFIX. Picking my Wasatch's, and WAEMX loses out.
David
The more I think about it, I don't know what I think about the wisdom of owning some slice of the market that I don't have any particular conviction in. Nothing I've seen has convinced me that I have any special insight into the prospects of emerging market stocks and I wonder if it is wise to have any more or less than I would have in an index fund. As for risk control, I can always hold more cash and less stock.
I've sold off my SFGIX for tax purposes and I'm waiting the requisite 30 days before I do anything with the money. I'm leaning towards rolling the money into VSS and VIG, which are the index funds I hold, but I don't know and I don't love the idea of abandoning something that has lost value.
Glad you asked the question -- I want to go back to adding small amounts to SFGIX at some point, and your post got me started thinking about a target level for taking the plunge.
Here's same look at VALE:
Let's hope worst over for these two new holdings. And, Seafarer will benefit going forward.
Here's look at SFGIX:
SFGIX is up 1.9% past five days.
Down 3.2% past month. Down 8.6% since May Day. Down 4% YTD.
Up 6.8% past year. Up 10% since inception 2/15/2012.
Fingers-crossed, the improvement continues and Fed and Syria do not send things south again.
Here's reminder of top holdings from Seafarer July conference call:
I'm currently heavy Seafarer.