If you agree with Mr. Arnott's view's from the latest commentary and I think most of here probably do, but if you also think funds can be come too big...............
1. Can (PAUDX/PAUIX) continue their run of success at their current size?
2. If not, what are the most viable options within the "world allocation", or whatever you want to call it, space?
3. What kind of DIY fund of funds could you cobble together to fit the bill. Sort of like the question from earlier in the year regarding a 3 or 4 fund portfolio.
Comments
2) IS there a way to tell other than yearly with M* what amount of leverage he is currently using?
3) PAUDX is the ultimate black box bet on one man's abilities, as it can do anything, and does it all within another closed box, ie PIMCO funds. So even if you look at the Quarterly Statements, you have to then deal with the quarterly statements of 5 or 10 other funds.
4) Most other "world allocation" funds stick to more traditional assets and therefore follow indexes in their behavior. I have had MDLOX for decades and the manager does a very good job over a market cycle, but you need a long horizon.
5) To set up a DIY fund you have to know what you are modeling and what you want to do. It is obviously not possible to even come close to duplicating PAUDX ( well you could buy the quaterly PIMCO allocations with borrowed money, but you lag horribly).
6) A better bet is to start with a traditional equity bond mix, assume that there may not be a lot (any?) protection in the bond side with the next big crash, and spread it out into many different assets, including gold, Real estate, alternative funds like MERGX, "unconstrained" bond funds, TIPS, long short, managed futures, short funds and true alternatives like JHAAX and back test it since 2007. Barron's has interviews with "contraians" who mention funds that work well for some of these, but a lot of the most prominent funds (Hussman) have been disappointing. I don't think you can do it with three or four funds... Maybe 6 or 10, but many of these strategies depend on an individual and if you guess wrong you can get killed.
7) For safety don't put any money you need to live on in the next five years in anything but T-bills or short term bonds
More importantly, does PIMCO ever close funds? I don't seem to recall any news of a PIMCO fund closing, ever.
http://investments.pimco.com/ShareholderCommunications/External Documents/All Asset All Authority Fund - 791 QIR.pdf
http://investments.pimco.com/Products/pages/284.aspx
(Click on Insight's Q&A link about midway down on right side of page.)
Here is very brief bottom-line: