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New Open Thread - What Are You Buying/Selling/Pondering?
I'm also at a point I won't be doing much shifting around, at least until there's a selloff.
Over the past two weeks, sold all short-term tactical positions aimed at profiting from the turn-of-the-year stock blastoff, and bumped muni holdings back up to a normal 10% after reducing for the seasonal slump. Sure, stocks can keep going, and if that happens I'll participate thru longer-term holdings.
Reply to @Charles: Would appear to be a hedge fund. I don't own any, but there are a couple of major London-listed hedge funds, including Brevan Howard Macro (which is giant) and Third Point. I really don't recommend (illiquid and other issues), but both have pink sheet versions in the US (BHMDF.PK, TPNTF.PK) There's also the Rothschild Investment Trust (RIT Capital Partners),which is a mix of funds and stocks (RITPF.PK in the US, again - definitely illiquid and not really recommended.) Jacob Rothschild's letters in the fund's occasional reports do make for interesting reading on the fund's website, though.
I'm frozen like a deer in headlights myself. Pondering whether miners (GDX) haven't become oversold, and whether that roller-coaster ride is worth jumping on.
Perhaps a small equity market correction would be a healthy event at this point for all involved.
Reply to @JoeNoEskimo: GDX as a trade only for me but wait for the pattern to turn in your favor. You may not catch the bottom but at least you won't get banged up and dirty on the way down either. I. too. would like to see you last comment. Patience grasshopper.
I continue to watch and manage my equities with their upward march and sold some more off as the S&P 500 Indexed reached a close of 1575. My next sell stop will be 1600. In following my systematic sell process I have kept my equity allocation in line and have not let it balloon on me. I started my selling process at the beginning of the year at S&P 500 Index at 1426 as a base line step and have sold a sum equal to about 1% of my equities at each 25 point upward step from there. The percentage of gain ranges between each step from about 1.7% to 1.6%. So in selling one percent at each step I have been putting about two thirds of the gains in my pocket as equities have advanced. And, when the pull back comes I am already pretty much right sized as I have kept my equity allocation towards the low range, for me, within my portfolio at about 45%. My normal allocation range for equities within my portfolio is 40% to 60% based upon my age and my risk tolerance assessment along with varying market conditions. At high valuations and overbought conditions I keep equities towards the low range (40%) within my asset allocation and during low valuation and oversold conditions I set more towards the upper range (60%).
When a substantial pull back comes I’ll increase my allocation to equities as I believe more value can be had at lower price levels. In short words … Don’t buy at, or towards, the top.
Yesterday, I was in Charleston, SC for a memorial service of a dear departed friend who was a fraternity brother and college room mate. I saw people who I have not seen in years and most likely will never see again in my lifetime. Indeed, a sad; but, also joyous time in the celebration of his life.
Now back in Charlotte … I will soon be off to church this morning and plan this afternoon in watching the final round of the Masters with some golfing friends (hot dogs & burgers) and perhaps we will have a second tv tuned to cover the NASCAR Truck Race at Rockingham.
Reply to @MikeM: Did you know that you can also buy supplements from Dr. John Hussman? He's really into fitness. Dr. H is the portfolio manager that really does it all (just not that well)!
Old sailors adage, After a good run before the wind it is time to lower the sails. i agree with bob c...a correction seems due and therefore to be defensive my major holdings are: mapix,macsx,mapox,tbgvx,yackx, prwcx, and in case of error , lesser amounts in swhfx,mxxvx,mpgfx,mscfx to levean the pot.
When the dust clears over the next few days or weeks, I will be adding to my EM holdings (WAEMX, THDIX, MAPIX) and will be to my AA funds (FPACX , GLRBX and WHGIX).
Just as a side note, less tha two weeks ago I sold out of PRPFX. I don't often get the timeing to work in my favor, BUT it sure looks like I got lucky this time!!
We would be cautious buyers of equities. For sure dollar-cost-averaging. We would purchase bonds at 100% of the allocation targets. I am not smart enough to know when the dust has settled. At some point folks should do re-balancing, but that is one of the hardest things to do when all heck is happening. People who did that at the end of 2008/beginning of 2009 made out like bandits.
Reply to @Art: Is/was a large position and am taking a bit off the table - will let the somewhat more reasonable remainder remain. Still like the fund a great deal, still very much a long-term holding.
Watching CEF, perhaps thinking of buying in private account. Or maybe buying more MS [cusip 61745EZ61] bonds at zionsdirect, yield @ 7% for medium term. Still 80s/20s in 401k/tsp at work
I'm trying something different this year. I am very happy with the all of the various single names I own, almost all of which provide a very good or great dividend yield and dividends will be reinvested (aside from a couple of things that do not have DRIP).
The single names are considered long-term investments (in particular some of the top holdings) and the funds I own I'm comfortable with as long-term holds. After cleaning up the remainder of a couple of things/moving things around (small stuff), that'll be it for the year. This will also result in much less paperwork next April and yet less micromanaging this year than last year.
Overall, I'm not putting any more in the market, and I don't intend to do anything with what's there for the remainder of the year.
The only exception is watching Australian company Graincorp - if the purchase of Graincorp by Archer Daniels Midland does not go through (and I hope it doesn't), I will buy back Graincorp (which I would have been very happy with as a long-term holding before ADM's offer). That's really the only thing that remains in consideration, and it may not even happen if ADM finally does buy Graincorp.
I'll still be around on the board as often as usual.
I had so much luck in the drug and drugstore sector with ABC, WAG, and SNTS that I started a position in RAD today after it went negative after hitting yearly highs. I rarely if ever fool with penny stocks but like the story here. Like my other speculative stock previously mentioned - NPSP - it is just that, a speculation. Still sticking with my three funds of GASFX, RYOIX, and WAFMX and will add a tad to the later today. It hasn't been as high powered as the other two but such a smooth upward curve.
Reply to @scott: Scott, I tend to agree. But besides the possible takeover factor, as you know this is also a bit of a turnaround play. I missed buying CVS albeit may buy on some type of correction so figured why not just buy the weak duckling in this strong sector to go along with WAG and to a lesser extent ABC.
Reply to @Hiyield007: I think Rite Aid is worthy of consideration as a turnaround play, and I agree with you. I think there is the issue of Wal-Mart Express, which continues to make in-roads into major cities, but Rite Aid has made (I think) much-needed moves to try to turn a very problematic ship around.
To me, it's really the question of the future of the "neighborhood" pharmacy and whether or not places that offer cheaper prescriptions (Costco, WMT, Target) will make in-roads (not Costco, but maybe if Wal-Mart Express starts popping up in more places.) I don't know - I think CVS and Walgreens (and possibly RAD) continue to fare well, but it feels like there is going to be consolidation in retail (if not drug stores, then electronics) over time with the one-stops (Target, WMT, Costco) higher up the pyramid. Those three offer value and that's appealed more and more during this time period, but there is a feeling that people are moving towards one-stop shopping rather than going through the gas and effort and time to go to multiple places. Target, Wal-Mart and Costco do well, but then so does Amazon.
There was an article on Bloomberg the other day talking about how well industrial real estate (warehouse, etc) was doing because of the rise of online shopping. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-15/warehouses-win-investors-as-unsung-internet-heroes.html) In that case, there's Prologis, or even the smaller Monmouth REIT, the latter being one of the largest Fedex landlords (Monmouth also owns a portfolio of other REITs, oddly enough.). There's also Brookfield Property Partners, which has some exposure to industrial but too much retail (for me.)
I own AS Watson via Hutchison Whampoa, which is a large Walgreens-like health/beauty chain in Europe and Asia. I believe it was the largest chain in the industry worldwide before Walgreens did the deal with Alliance Boots. To take a look from the outside in, my concern with Walgreens or CVS buying RAD is antitrust. However, what if another chain l(whether AS Watson or someone else) ooked at RAD as a way into the US? Who knows.
Above is kind of long and rambling, but that's often the norm for me on this board.
Reply to @Hiyield007: 4:46 PM Looking for signals from insiders? Walgreen (WAG) director Stefan Passina reportedly buys $4M worth of company stock at an average price of $48.62 per share. Comment!
Comments
Three top fund holdings remain: AQRIX, BOND, FAAFX.
Top stock holding: BAC.
BTW, what can you tell me about the Autonomy Global Macro Fund? Anna referenced it in recent post. Available to ordinary investors?
Over the past two weeks, sold all short-term tactical positions aimed at profiting from the turn-of-the-year stock blastoff, and bumped muni holdings back up to a normal 10% after reducing for the seasonal slump. Sure, stocks can keep going, and if that happens I'll participate thru longer-term holdings.
Perhaps a small equity market correction would be a healthy event at this point for all involved.
I continue to watch and manage my equities with their upward march and sold some more off as the S&P 500 Indexed reached a close of 1575. My next sell stop will be 1600. In following my systematic sell process I have kept my equity allocation in line and have not let it balloon on me. I started my selling process at the beginning of the year at S&P 500 Index at 1426 as a base line step and have sold a sum equal to about 1% of my equities at each 25 point upward step from there. The percentage of gain ranges between each step from about 1.7% to 1.6%. So in selling one percent at each step I have been putting about two thirds of the gains in my pocket as equities have advanced. And, when the pull back comes I am already pretty much right sized as I have kept my equity allocation towards the low range, for me, within my portfolio at about 45%. My normal allocation range for equities within my portfolio is 40% to 60% based upon my age and my risk tolerance assessment along with varying market conditions. At high valuations and overbought conditions I keep equities towards the low range (40%) within my asset allocation and during low valuation and oversold conditions I set more towards the upper range (60%).
When a substantial pull back comes I’ll increase my allocation to equities as I believe more value can be had at lower price levels. In short words … Don’t buy at, or towards, the top.
Yesterday, I was in Charleston, SC for a memorial service of a dear departed friend who was a fraternity brother and college room mate. I saw people who I have not seen in years and most likely will never see again in my lifetime. Indeed, a sad; but, also joyous time in the celebration of his life.
Now back in Charlotte … I will soon be off to church this morning and plan this afternoon in watching the final round of the Masters with some golfing friends (hot dogs & burgers) and perhaps we will have a second tv tuned to cover the NASCAR Truck Race at Rockingham.
Enjoy your day ...
Skeeter
http://www.hussmanfitness.org/
Going forward, we are increasing our positions in the global smaller caps via GPGOX and WAEMX and emerging market, THDIX.
After a good run before the wind it is time to lower the sails.
i agree with bob c...a correction seems due and therefore to be defensive my major holdings are:
mapix,macsx,mapox,tbgvx,yackx, prwcx, and in case of error , lesser amounts in swhfx,mxxvx,mpgfx,mscfx to levean the pot.
Just as a side note, less tha two weeks ago I sold out of PRPFX. I don't often get the timeing to work in my favor, BUT it sure looks like I got lucky this time!!
Art
A few more minor tweaks and I'll be done for the year.
Done for the year?
Tis only April 18.
Regards,
Catch
The single names are considered long-term investments (in particular some of the top holdings) and the funds I own I'm comfortable with as long-term holds. After cleaning up the remainder of a couple of things/moving things around (small stuff), that'll be it for the year. This will also result in much less paperwork next April and yet less micromanaging this year than last year.
Overall, I'm not putting any more in the market, and I don't intend to do anything with what's there for the remainder of the year.
The only exception is watching Australian company Graincorp - if the purchase of Graincorp by Archer Daniels Midland does not go through (and I hope it doesn't), I will buy back Graincorp (which I would have been very happy with as a long-term holding before ADM's offer). That's really the only thing that remains in consideration, and it may not even happen if ADM finally does buy Graincorp.
I'll still be around on the board as often as usual.
To me, it's really the question of the future of the "neighborhood" pharmacy and whether or not places that offer cheaper prescriptions (Costco, WMT, Target) will make in-roads (not Costco, but maybe if Wal-Mart Express starts popping up in more places.) I don't know - I think CVS and Walgreens (and possibly RAD) continue to fare well, but it feels like there is going to be consolidation in retail (if not drug stores, then electronics) over time with the one-stops (Target, WMT, Costco) higher up the pyramid. Those three offer value and that's appealed more and more during this time period, but there is a feeling that people are moving towards one-stop shopping rather than going through the gas and effort and time to go to multiple places. Target, Wal-Mart and Costco do well, but then so does Amazon.
There was an article on Bloomberg the other day talking about how well industrial real estate (warehouse, etc) was doing because of the rise of online shopping. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-15/warehouses-win-investors-as-unsung-internet-heroes.html) In that case, there's Prologis, or even the smaller Monmouth REIT, the latter being one of the largest Fedex landlords (Monmouth also owns a portfolio of other REITs, oddly enough.). There's also Brookfield Property Partners, which has some exposure to industrial but too much retail (for me.)
I own AS Watson via Hutchison Whampoa, which is a large Walgreens-like health/beauty chain in Europe and Asia. I believe it was the largest chain in the industry worldwide before Walgreens did the deal with Alliance Boots. To take a look from the outside in, my concern with Walgreens or CVS buying RAD is antitrust. However, what if another chain l(whether AS Watson or someone else) ooked at RAD as a way into the US? Who knows.
Above is kind of long and rambling, but that's often the norm for me on this board.