Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
I look at these "interventions" in the mid-east where we kill hundreds/thousands in the name of freedom as just creating another generation of youth to hate America. Does anyone think the youth in Palestine love us after we supply the weapons used kill their relatives.
Sadly, I can't argue with any of this. But I feel an urge to connect with Dr. David's original title for this thread: Don't be a hero. I hope I'm not in denial about that, but the only serious move I'm anywhere nearly thinking about is to perhaps get out of EWS and into IDEQ. However, the tide is still receding. There is no escape, unless we go all-in to the MMkt, eh?
I look at these "interventions" in the mid-east where we kill hundreds/thousands in the name of freedom as just creating another generation of youth to hate America. Does anyone think the youth in Palestine love us after we supply the weapons used kill their relatives.
Yeah - like invade Iraq, dump the Sunnis, create ISIS.
My model signaled a sell a week ago Monday and I sold everything, which was 2 bond funds. I locked 4+% for YTD mainly with EGRIX. I posted the sell on another site. Risk is lower now, but I'm waiting. I the next 2+ weeks I will keep watching from Greece while drinking ouzo.
As usual, my actions are based on current markets and never on politics.
I look at these "interventions" in the mid-east where we kill hundreds/thousands in the name of freedom as just creating another generation of youth to hate America. Does anyone think the youth in Palestine love us after we supply the weapons used kill their relatives.
Yeah - like invade Iraq, dump the Sunnis, create ISIS.
And that came from a much more level headed crowd, who assessed many probabilities.
This is another example of ready, fire. aim. There are no level heads or lengthy considerations. The narrative was, that "this could take a while". Then when the markets tanked, oil futures hit $120, panic kicked in and TACO prevailed, "We are almost done".
What have we accomplished? They really thought that they would potentially create regime change, so they started an armed conflict. Then they figured out (were advised) that was NEVER going to happen, and the whole story now changes.
More chaos, more destruction, more uncertainty. Do not be surprised if every leg up does not trigger more selling. The same economic headwinds that were in force before we started launching missiles at Iran, are still in place.
Oh, and we are running out of valuable munitions, apparently that wasn't even taken into account before entering into hostilities. Iran may continue launching drones, just to deplete patriot and THAAD capabilities. That will continue to be costly to U.S. and U.S. interests.
This is the reason that previous administrations did not attack Iran directly. Not because "they couldn't do it", which is an inane thing to even say.
And this is the reason that an administration that brags about "cheap oil" is already backing down, after claiming that "it would take a while". Another boast that did not age well. Expect a lot of damage control gaslighting, that doesn't hold an ounce of water.
•The Strait of Hormuz closure has caused the biggest oil supply disruption in history, according to Rapidan Energy.
•About 20% of global supply has been disrupted for nine days, more than double the previous record set during the Suez crisis of 1956.
•There is virtually no spare capacity to address the problem because Saudi Arabia and the UAE are cut off from the global oil market, Rapidan said.
One should assume that our "allies" in the ME are not happy that they are unable to ship oil, and in the direct line of fire. They did warn against it. Then got dragged in, against their will.
This afternoon we're told that the war is almost over:
"U.S. stocks finished higher on Monday, overcoming several days of declines caused by the Middle East conflict with Iran, as U.S. President Donald Trump said the war could be over soon.
The S&P 500 (SP500) ended +0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP:IND) finished +1.4%, and the Dow (DJI) closed +0.5%.
Crude oil prices (CL1:COM), which initially surged to over $119 per barrel over fears of potential supply disruptions, saw a historic swing by Monday’s market close, dropping more than 6.8% to about $84.
Lastly, bond yields were lower. The 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) was 2 basis points lower at 4.11%, while the 2-year Treasury yield (US2Y) dropped 1 basis point to 3.55%."
Comments
I locked 4+% for YTD mainly with EGRIX.
I posted the sell on another site.
Risk is lower now, but I'm waiting. I the next 2+ weeks I will keep watching from Greece while drinking ouzo.
As usual, my actions are based on current markets and never on politics.
This is another example of ready, fire. aim. There are no level heads or lengthy considerations. The narrative was, that "this could take a while". Then when the markets tanked, oil futures hit $120, panic kicked in and TACO prevailed, "We are almost done".
What have we accomplished? They really thought that they would potentially create regime change, so they started an armed conflict. Then they figured out (were advised) that was NEVER going to happen, and the whole story now changes.
More chaos, more destruction, more uncertainty. Do not be surprised if every leg up does not trigger more selling. The same economic headwinds that were in force before we started launching missiles at Iran, are still in place.
Oh, and we are running out of valuable munitions, apparently that wasn't even taken into account before entering into hostilities. Iran may continue launching drones, just to deplete patriot and THAAD capabilities. That will continue to be costly to U.S. and U.S. interests.
This is the reason that previous administrations did not attack Iran directly. Not because "they couldn't do it", which is an inane thing to even say.
And this is the reason that an administration that brags about "cheap oil" is already backing down, after claiming that "it would take a while". Another boast that did not age well. Expect a lot of damage control gaslighting, that doesn't hold an ounce of water.
•The Strait of Hormuz closure has caused the biggest oil supply disruption in history, according to Rapidan Energy.
•About 20% of global supply has been disrupted for nine days, more than double the previous record set during the Suez crisis of 1956.
•There is virtually no spare capacity to address the problem because Saudi Arabia and the UAE are cut off from the global oil market, Rapidan said.
One should assume that our "allies" in the ME are not happy that they are unable to ship oil, and in the direct line of fire. They did warn against it. Then got dragged in, against their will.
"U.S. stocks finished higher on Monday, overcoming several days of declines caused by the Middle East conflict with Iran, as U.S. President Donald Trump said the war could be over soon.
The S&P 500 (SP500) ended +0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP:IND) finished +1.4%, and the Dow (DJI) closed +0.5%.
Crude oil prices (CL1:COM), which initially surged to over $119 per barrel over fears of potential supply disruptions, saw a historic swing by Monday’s market close, dropping more than 6.8% to about $84.
Lastly, bond yields were lower. The 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) was 2 basis points lower at 4.11%, while the 2-year Treasury yield (US2Y) dropped 1 basis point to 3.55%."