It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
For what interest that holds, DavidThe risk today is certainly not “too much panic,” rather complacency and hubris conditioned upon decades of military supremacy and market resilience. Markets are behaving as if the distribution of outcomes is narrow and benign. When bombs fly, the reward for bravery is rarely paid on schedule. We do not think this is the time to heroically outguess geopolitics or to confuse short-term fortitude with long-term clarity. The lesson from past conflicts is quite clear: Respect the initial shock, acknowledge the widening cone of uncertainty, and remember that survival, not bravado, is what allows investors to participate when genuine opportunities ultimately emerge.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved. Powered by Vanilla
Comments
It is hard to see anything but headwinds in the next 6-9 months, right now. War is weighing heavily. But jobs, inflation and trade wars are still hanging in the background.
Is there any good economic news? I may have missed it.
That works out fine for predicting eclipses.
Iranian navy - sitting ducks - can be bombed from the sky or submarine (they lost one in Sri Lanka - submarine attack) , we have very powerful bombs etc. Iran is alone - no China+Russia support. All their IT systems can be hacked by us since we control those technologies (K death - hacking of street cameras).
Gas prices going up - a temporary phenomena.
So this war is a bit bit different - David vs Goliath.
Statistics/historical patterns are not valid as the policies change by a tweet, very unpredictable (not one but many).
Most of the countries have trade deficit with US so they are afraid of tariff (even though we pay it), it reduces the demand. Companies can go to the courts but GOP controls that branch too.
I give max 4 weeks for war to end.
Regime change is the plan - we will gain 90M consumers.
US Companies will be major beneficiaries.
We control now - Venezuela, Next Iran, followed by Cuba, beat goes on.
Democrats - it's not a party any more. They are leaderless. All their so called leaders are talking different languages (CA & NY - are levying extra taxes - companies & people are moving out as fast as possible). Those stupids don't see a simple logic - billionaire tax - how will it give them revenue if the billionaire moves to Texas and/or Florida. On the other hand, Trump has full support of GOP even if his orders are illegal. Democratic leaders are not challenging them. They go to court and loose there.
So my suggestion - BUY the DIP (I am buying XLI - Industrial, needed for all the reconstructions, mining etc.) . This is what I am doing.
Will the last fiscally-conservative person who abandons their principles turn off the lights?
"But everyone should pay attention to the cost. U.S. debt this year will hit $33 trillion, or more than
$250,000 per household. Last month, the Congressional Budget Office predicted that the deficit—
the amount by which the country is going further into the hole—will total $1.9 trillion this year,
or nearly $15,000 per household."
"That doesn’t include around $170 billion in collected revenue subject to refund following
a Supreme Court ruling against Trump tariffs, which over the coming decade could reduce
projected revenue by $1.7 trillion. And it doesn’t include the cost of war in Iran, pegged for now
at $50 billion to $100 billion, but subject to revision. It costs $45,000 an hour to operate a carrier-based
F-35 fighter. And intercepting $30,000 Shahid-136 suicide drones using RTX’s $4 million Patriot
PAC-3 missiles, or Lockheed Martin’s $14 million-per-launch Thaad system, can quickly run up the tab."
"Anyhow, today’s deficits act like a credit-card advance on economic growth, so reducing them tomorrow
would be a growth drag, another tough sell. But eventually, America might be forced to choose between
fiscal reform and pricey military interventions, before the bond market launches an epic fury of its own."
"Wall Street has been busy parsing what war in Iran might mean for U.S. stock market leadership.
Morgan Stanley has studied stock factors, or characteristics, and found that in the month following
past geopolitical surprises that sent oil higher, value and dividend yield have tended to shine, while
growth has slumped. This is unsurprising, considering that oil majors, whose products are suddenly
worth more, populate both value and dividend funds, and the largest defense contractors, which will need
to reup missile stockpiles, including interceptor systems for overseas customers, pay above-average dividends."
"Barclays has looked at sectors, and found that in the year following major geopolitical risk spikes, discretionary,
tech, materials, and utilities have done well, while telecom, energy, and industrials have lagged behind.
The energy finding seems counterintuitive, but by Barclays’ math, energy stocks are already trading as though
crude were selling for more than $100 a barrel."
"Fortunately, Barclays also finds that the regular old S&P 500 has tended to return 12% in the year
following major geopolitical flare-ups, so for well-positioned investors, doing nothing is an attractive option."
Protecting the institution of black slavery in the Confederate States was stupid. But when the Federal gov't in Washington moved into Southern soil, people down south got pretty pissed off, protecting their "States' Rights." And they lost the War, but Reconstruction was extremely messy, subject to political shenanigans (Rutherford B. Hayes) and wasn't (sort of?) complete until the Civil Rights Act of 1965.
We beat up Japan extremely well. In the end, they had no options. Hell, in a lotta places there was not even a shack still standing. Their war was political, not religious. Like the Confederates. And we had to install Doug MacArthur to be in charge and reconstruct everything from scratch. The United States cannot possibly afford to do that again, and maintain an occupation Force, indefinitely. Look what the occupation of Palestinian land has brought upon the Israeli regime? No one in the media ever wants to consider what was going on prior to Oct. 7, 2023. But I will mention that prior to that date, there had been 56 years of Israeli occupation. And there's been nothing but trouble. People do not appreciate being occupied.
Iran is a theocracy. Whether or not there are a big buncha people there who do not like that fact, the gummint is fighting a religious war. Their particular "take" on Islam may be vile, misdirected and stupid, but we're not going to change their minds. They will resort to isolated terroristic actions and guerrilla tactics. Just watch. And of course, it will be septic opportunists in that country who will be attracted to the idea of filling the resulting political/religious vacuum we are creating. No less than our own political opportunists, here.
Despite absconding with some Venezuelan oil, none of our oil producers are interested in trying to rebuild that infrastructure. Long term cost to taxpayers associated with current stabilization efforts is estimated at $50 billion.
These sorts of economic windfalls rarely, if ever, materialize. The costs end up as debt and interest on that debt keeps on coming.
A lot of folks on various investment boards that consistently preach "ignoring the noise", and who have decent reputations, are sure doing a lot of selling. Sometimes "the noise" is simply background noise. Sometimes, it is a train and you are stopped on the tracks.
A lot of folks appear to embrace the murkiness of imperialism, despite the dark and dirty history.
Meaning, if Iran drags on, oil hits 150, stagflation creeps up, watch Donnie use all that as a face-saving opportunity to roll back his 15% universal tarriffs to 'help the American people' heading into the elections.
The USG is the best in the world at wasting other people's money.
(Investing-wise, in my more active account, I'm sitting on a ton of gains -- mainly in energy and utilities -- so I'm hesitant to do any selling.)
•There are strong worries of white collar job losses pending AI adoption.
•The 108,435 layoffs in January 2026 marked a 205% increase from December 2025.
•92,000 jobs were lost in February. Labor force participation is dripping down and has been for a while.
•CPI looks benign, but PCE has been running much hotter and trending upwards. The Iran war will only exacerbate that trend.
•The equities markets YTD were not doing so well, before this new war was initiated.
This is beginning to look like many negatives are converging. Discussing optimistic war views, without taking everything into consideration may be unwise.
I always keep in mind that those who are risk averse usually settle for less gains during good times, and may sell to cash during bad times. But, those taking high risk during good times, can afford some declines when things deteriorate. And still maintain a higher TR over time.
My concern is that those who were rationally observing the declining circumstances, are now being joined by those who were ignoring it all, until now. Are those who say they are still buying, really buying? Enough to move the needle? Kinda doubtful.
How many people are now looking for opportunities to sell into days that markets turn upward? Is that what next week has in store for us?
Good point @gman57
https://apnews.com/article/russia-iran-war-putin-ukraine-oil-8a6af4989692d66a1e5bed1bc1922efa
Let's unpack this. Putin, who trump has fawned over for years, just said that trump is morally bereft snd cynical. Is trump posting about this betrayal in ALL CAPS on truth social, yet? Putin basically called him a murderer.
And THAT is coming from a guy who tosses his opponents out of tall buildings.
"trump is Putin’s greatest source of leverage over Europe. He’ll keep his eye on the ball.”
We live in a place where now authoritarianism is being favored over democracy by our leadership. This is applauded, somehow, by maga. They see democratic ideals as limiting, and authoritarianism as freeing. THAT is who they are.
Good piece. Seems like S. Lavrov the foreign minister is usually fairly effective in the int'l realm at getting at least some of what the Russke insiders want. I wouldn't bet against them doing very well out of this whole fiasco.
Oh, and the last graf: "Noted Galeotti: 'The more Patriots that get used up in this conflict ... the fewer available to the Americans generally and more uncomfortable they will feel about passing or selling any of them to the Ukrainians.' "
There's no comfort or discomfort involved. The admin hasn't made a secret of the fact they've dumped Ukraine, so there was never any question about their providing Ukraine with any more defensive tools.
Bingo.
I culled this from a post of @Observant1. Anyone thinking that we are going to eliminate the Ayatollahs and "free" the Iranians to become hotdog-eating, GMC truck driving, baseball and apple pie loving consumers, is existing in a fantasy world.
The nuclear weapon facilities were buried. This is just another mess, courtesy of maga.