FYI, here is a short and fairly succinct assessment of Iran's strategy from an article by Steve Erlanger in today's NYT:
Ali Vaez, the Iran director of the Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group, said, “The Iranians want to spread the pain as much as they can, regardless of the cost to themselves and burned relations with their neighbors, hoping to create enough opposition to the war to compel President Trump to back off.”
The goals are to damage oil and gas infrastructure in neighboring countries, shut the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and curtail air traffic — all to disrupt the economies of the Persian Gulf and drive up global energy prices and inflation. “For the Islamic Republic,” he added, “survival is a victory, even if it is a pyrrhic one.”
In terms of my investment strategy, I have sold funds with a significant international component and will hold the proceeds in cash until the fog of war has cleared. As a retired investor, I prefer to err on the side of caution.
Good Luck.
Comments
Thanks for that POV.
I wonder how much arsenal they have left in a couple weeks? Then, I suppose they switch to sabotage and terrorism. If they have deep assets in Western nations, it may be time to use those assets, too.
The financial costs to the American taxpayer keep going up in Donnie's little Iran adventure-cum-war-of-choice.
There will be no more talk about "$2.00/gallon" gas!
--- The benchmark freight rate for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) — used to ship 2 million barrels of oil from the Middle East to China — hit an all-time high of $423,736 per day on Monday, data from LSEG showed. That marked an increase of more than 94% from Friday’s close.
Crude oil tanker insurance cost, Middle East to China report/article this morning.
Nah- not his style:
UNLIKE the PITIFUL PERFORMANCE of the Previous BIDEN administration I HAVE NOW CAUSED GASOLINE AND FUEL PRICES to be the VERY LOWEST since the Beginning of this GREAT COUNTRY.
SEE- It SAYS THAT right here on this genuine SOLID GOLD plated TROPHY rewarded to ME by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF OIL BILLIONAIRES!
@Anna, I am of the firm belief that Netanyahoo! (and the Saudis, to a lesser extent) played Donnie like a fiddle, getting the US to be his proxy and Big Gun(tm) for the Iran attack. Now that the whole Middle East is fighting amongst itself and occupying public attention, Netanyahoo! can focus on his interests -- Gaza, Lebanon, and ensuring Israeli primacy in the region. Frankly I think Israel has been the most destabilizing power in the region for decades, but that's just my take.
Both Israel and Saudi Arabia had the most to gain by a crippled Iran. Sure, Iran was a perennial US concern, but certainly not an 'imminent' one as we've been led to believe.
We're seeing NATO mobilizing in the Med, missiles landing in countries we'd never think of, and the Strait is closed....all within 5 days. Mixed messaging and flat-out lies from Washington make this an even more convoluted and debilitating situation both here and abroad.
Ergo, I'm reminded of ADM Painter in 'The Hunt for Red October' ....
https://clip.cafe/the-hunt-red-october-1990/this-business-will-get-out-of-control/
Wednesday could not give a good estimate on the status of their munitions. 'Right now, we don't have,
you know, a good estimate on what is being clearly burned,' said Gen. Christopher LaNeve,
vice chief of staff of the U.S. Army testified.
"'It's a little too early to tell exactly what kind of impact it's going to have, just based on where we are
in the conflict, but we'll absolutely commit to working with your team to provide details on munitions
inventories as we go forward,' Gen. John D. Lamontagne, vice chief of staff of the U.S. Air Force, said."
"The U.S. was already concerned about its stockpile before this war as the Russian-Ukraine conflict,
the Israeli-Gaza conflict and last summer's conflict with Iran have dramatically increased demand for
Patriot and THAAD missiles, according to Greico."
"Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missiles that are used to intercept Iran's most powerful ballistic missiles
are in particularly short supply. Grieco estimated that if the U.S. uses its THAAD missiles at same rate as the
12-day conflict with Iran last year, it might only have enough for about two weeks."
https://abcnews.com/Politics/war-iran-stretches-experts-raise-concerns-war-attrition/story?id=130719578
The first week of campaign used 25% of the stockpile already. This approach is NOT sustainable. This explains the lack of air defense, Patriot missiles cost several millions versus Iranian drones that cost $50K.
BTW there might not be so many Iranian drones flying right now if Donnie had given Zelenskyy the Tomahawks he wanted to take out the Russian drone factories. So now the US is spending $2M to down a $20,000 drone ... which sounds like typical financial wizardry for a Trump operation. (Besides, it's not 'his' money to waste, anyway.)
This war of choice will likely increase our already large fiscal deficit.
https://x.com/nancyayoussef/status/2029260834564604070
The Hunt For Red October.
https://clip.cafe/the-hunt-red-october-1990/this-business-will-get-out-of-control/
Admiral Painter. "The Ruskies don't take a dump without a PLAN."
https://theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/03/us-iran-war-air-strikes/686228/
Strother Martin:
"Morons. I've got morons on my team."
We'll just add to the $7.5T federal debt. For a war of choice.
world’s traded nitrogen fertilizers (including ammonia and urea) pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's closure of the strait will increase fertilizer prices which often leads to lower crop yields
and higher food costs.
By the way, top Pentagon officials ( not Hegseth) do not think Iran’s missile program has advanced enough to pose treat to the west.