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The consumer price index for January is 2.4% from the same time a year ago. So after a year of Trump in office and all the tariffs, the sky didn't fall. Where is the inflation? The fake, biased Lib economists were wrong AGAIN.
WSJ forced to admit they were wrong when they said no impact from tariffs on retail prices. Home Depot and Walmart were warned by the President not to raise prices and they obliged but were only able to do so by refusing to increase hiring or fill vacant positions. I have been warning that low job creation is greatest issue, not inflation, but of course I’m not a banker at JP Morgan (who spends less than 5 minutes vetting deals like Frank financial aid fiasco) so listen to me now and believe me later.
Tariffs increased some costs, but many firms held off on increases and sometimes offered discounts to capture holiday shoppers in late 2025.
However, in 2026 most companies are now forced to raise prices. Some companies have pointed a finger at tariffs for their increases, while others, especially small businesses, also blame higher wages and hefty health-insurance costs that firms said they can’t absorb or share with suppliers.
Remember that health insurance increases are not directly counted in CPI. CPI does not count employer paid portion and they only count overhead, marketing, and profit from insurance companies. Because the CPI only looks at that small "overhead" slice, the weight of health insurance in the overall CPI is tiny (usually less than 1%).
If your premium goes from $500 to $700, but the insurance company's profit margin stays the same, the CPI might show 0% inflation for health insurance, even though you are out an extra $200 a month.
We are not even going to talk about home insurance that is NOT covered in CPI because it is considered an investment in home, not a consumable. Home insurance and health insurance going up 10-20% magically disappear in CPI.
You have no idea how much City, County, State and Federal Government pension boards lobby the BLS to keep CPI low. You’d be amazed what a Costco pizza catering will get you at the NCPERS (National Conference on Public Employee Retirement Systems). BLS staff are required to attend to receive feedback from these massive "stakeholders" about how the data affects their bottom line. Hey look, price of pizza and hot dogs haven’t gone up in 10 years so let’s ease up on food inflation Mr. Mortimer Duke.
Substitution effect on CPI used for food products, so if steak too expensive, my cousin Eddie will just eat $1.50 hotdog meal at Costco and that is legitimately used in CPI.
Rumor is that Biden staff wanted BLS to substitute rents in Chelsea and West Village with much lower rent in say Rikers, but BLS assured me they won’t do that. However, they did say that rent controlled apartments are averaged in for rent prices in CPI, even though when you go shopping for apartments in West Village they start at $8,000 for a 1 bedroom, not the $3,000 in CPI.
Hedonic Adjustment is the grand illusion. This is the process where the BLS argues that even if the price of a product goes up, it might actually be "cheaper" because it's better than the old version. The Scenario: Last year, a laptop cost $1,000. This year, the new model costs $1,200. Your Wallet: You are out an extra $200. That feels like 20% inflation. The BLS View: The new laptop has a faster processor, a better screen, and double the storage. They calculate that these improvements are worth $300 in "added value.”, so it is counted as -10% inflation.
On paper, the economy is growing at a "gangbusters" rate of 4.3%, yet the majority of people feel like they are standing on a sinking ship. 40 years of “tuning” CPI will do that. It turns out you can only "hedonically adjust" a person’s reality so many times before they stop believing the spreadsheet.
As of February 2026, the sentiment that the economy is heading in the "right direction" is hovering between 30% and 38%, depending on which polling aggregator is used.
Don’t forget that Biden/Harris team were fired for ignoring the reality of voters. Voters said “I will not be ignored”. Those of you in the beltway should heed that advice.
Many of your points hit home with me. I recall getting "pay raises" (wage inflation), yet my take home pay was less due to workplace cost share deductions that increased more than my pay raise (insurance, union dues, retiree insurance contribution, etc.).
"Wage Inflation" often doesn't outpace "wage deduction inflation" aka "too much month at the end of the paycheck".
Very few companies will list tariff surcharges on their website. A few do add them on cart before checkout, like Ubiquity, that makes networking and security cameras.
Commercial Distributors (e.g., Graybar, WWT): These firms often include surcharges on formal quotes or invoices for enterprise customers rather than on their public websites. This is common for brands like Cisco or Arista, where tariffs are passed through as a percentage of the total project cost, like a shipping charge. BLS staff are not working undercover in construction trades so obviously miss this surcharge. BLS must be looking for modern day George Plimpton.
Comments
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1273980597910399&vanity=RepTroyNehls
Why don't you ask these posters to stop.
Tariffs increased some costs, but many firms held off on increases and sometimes offered discounts to capture holiday shoppers in late 2025.
However, in 2026 most companies are now forced to raise prices. Some companies have pointed a finger at tariffs for their increases, while others, especially small businesses, also blame higher wages and hefty health-insurance costs that firms said they can’t absorb or share with suppliers.
Remember that health insurance increases are not directly counted in CPI. CPI does not count employer paid portion and they only count overhead, marketing, and profit from insurance companies. Because the CPI only looks at that small "overhead" slice, the weight of health insurance in the overall CPI is tiny (usually less than 1%).
If your premium goes from $500 to $700, but the insurance company's profit margin stays the same, the CPI might show 0% inflation for health insurance, even though you are out an extra $200 a month.
We are not even going to talk about home insurance that is NOT covered in CPI because it is considered an investment in home, not a consumable. Home insurance and health insurance going up 10-20% magically disappear in CPI.
You have no idea how much City, County, State and Federal Government pension boards lobby the BLS to keep CPI low. You’d be amazed what a Costco pizza catering will get you at the NCPERS (National Conference on Public Employee Retirement Systems). BLS staff are required to attend to receive feedback from these massive "stakeholders" about how the data affects their bottom line.
Hey look, price of pizza and hot dogs haven’t gone up in 10 years so let’s ease up on food inflation Mr. Mortimer Duke.
Substitution effect on CPI used for food products, so if steak too expensive, my cousin Eddie will just eat $1.50 hotdog meal at Costco and that is legitimately used in CPI.
Rumor is that Biden staff wanted BLS to substitute rents in Chelsea and West Village with much lower rent in say Rikers, but BLS assured me they won’t do that. However, they did say that rent controlled apartments are averaged in for rent prices in CPI, even though when you go shopping for apartments in West Village they start at $8,000 for a 1 bedroom, not the $3,000 in CPI.
Hedonic Adjustment is the grand illusion. This is the process where the BLS argues that even if the price of a product goes up, it might actually be "cheaper" because it's better than the old version. The Scenario: Last year, a laptop cost $1,000. This year, the new model costs $1,200.
Your Wallet: You are out an extra $200. That feels like 20% inflation.
The BLS View: The new laptop has a faster processor, a better screen, and double the storage. They calculate that these improvements are worth $300 in "added value.”, so it is counted as -10% inflation.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/the-break-is-over-companies-are-jacking-up-prices-again/ar-AA1WqBG8
As of February 2026, the sentiment that the economy is heading in the "right direction" is hovering between 30% and 38%, depending on which polling aggregator is used.
Don’t forget that Biden/Harris team were fired for ignoring the reality of voters. Voters said “I will not be ignored”.
Those of you in the beltway should heed that advice.
Many of your points hit home with me. I recall getting "pay raises" (wage inflation), yet my take home pay was less due to workplace cost share deductions that increased more than my pay raise (insurance, union dues, retiree insurance contribution, etc.).
"Wage Inflation" often doesn't outpace "wage deduction inflation" aka "too much month at the end of the paycheck".
Commercial Distributors (e.g., Graybar, WWT): These firms often include surcharges on formal quotes or invoices for enterprise customers rather than on their public websites. This is common for brands like Cisco or Arista, where tariffs are passed through as a percentage of the total project cost, like a shipping charge. BLS staff are not working undercover in construction trades so obviously miss this surcharge. BLS must be looking for modern day George Plimpton.
https://store.ui.com/us/en/products/uvc-g6-turret?variant=uvc-g6-turret-b