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When Michael Corleone asks Clemenza in “The Godfather” about the mob war he’s about to start, he gets the sort of reassurance that comes with experience. “These things gotta happen every five years or so, ten years. Helps to get rid of the bad blood…been ten years since the last one.”
The 'bad blood' is already in place. The question is: How much and for how long, do you want everyone to suffer ???
I can give you just as many reasons the market will be strong in the coming months as I can it will be weak. Bottoms are much easier to pick than tops. Many don’t like stocks here because of market breath reminiscent of 1999. I tend to agree, But then I have never in my life seen such bearishness with a market that seemingly makes new highs after new highs. That was not the case in 1999 with everyone on board,
But the kicker is I would think Trump and Bessent are going to do everything in their power - and I mean everything - to prop up stocks and bonds going into the mid terms. I wouldn’t trust many of the government reports coming out as they may be tilted in favor of their goals,
Hi @Junkster I do agree with you. Since the tariff war was started, at least on a YTD return basis; Int'l. equity returns have handsomely outpaced U.S. The money will find its needed path, based on the ongoing actions from D.C. We remain 40% equity, 20% IG bonds and 40% mmkt.
My 1-cent worth. I’ve never seen a more bifurcated equity market. There’s the hot stuff the crowd, momentum funds and algorithms keep chasing. On the other hand there’s deep value, including many small & mid cap that nobody wants at any price. Where will it all end? Haven’t a clue.
@Junkster - I agree fully with the political overtones. But there are no guarantees they’ll achieve anything other than more inflation due to excess stimulus. I can’t trade on that other then keep a tilt towards inflation. (No. I don’t mean buy gold at 3X what was worth 5 years ago.)
Added: If prospects are so good for the markets, why do the brokerages keep sliding? TROW down another 2% today.
I don't think Jakab really elucidated the benefits of a ravening bear. Feels like he recycled some old Wall Street cliche.
The taxable accounts are as invested as they have ever been in equities. At the present time we do realize some dividends from our accounts.
The IRA is largely dedicated to short-term investment grade bonds funds. Some, like FGUSX and BBBMX, were bought because of their response to the Great Recession. Of course, there are no guarantees. And let's just hope their dividends can stay ahead of inflation.
So far, this seems like a reasonable bifurcation for our situation.
Today's first non sequitur: I'm wondering what bitcoin is actually good for except a gamble in steadier times, and possibly a way to launder money. It certainly hasn't been doing anything to protect anyone from the decline in the dollar.
I've near given up trying to figure out what "X" is worth vs. what "X" is currently selling for or priced at whether it be the mag7 or AI-related equities or gold or crypto coins you name it. None of it seems real to me but here we are.
I am mildly bearish at this time but the counter point of "administration will do everything to juice the economy ahead of mid terms" argument is powerful. I hope AQR plays that trend well.
"I'm wondering what bitcoin is actually good for except a gamble in steadier times, and possibly a way to launder money."
I don't "invest" in Bitcoin and probably never will. But I think Bitcoin does have a few legitimate use cases: 1) Non-criminals who seek to protect their privacy while conducting certain transactions. 2) Store of value for people in countries with ultra-high inflation.
When Michael Corleone asks Clemenza in “The Godfather” about the mob war he’s about to start, he gets the sort of reassurance that comes with experience. “These things gotta happen every five years or so, ten years. Helps to get rid of the bad blood…been ten years since the last one.”
The 'bad blood' is already in place. The question is: How much and for how long, do you want everyone to suffer ???
Have you see "The Offer" about the making of The Godfather? It was excellent!
I read most of the Puzo books, and must say that Mario Puzo is a brilliant author. The movies did not follow the books exactly. Of The Godfather (1969), The Sicilian (1984), the Last Don (1986) and Omertà (2000), only the first film was really based on the first book. The others were significantly different.
Scott Galloway has been making the point that disruptions (bears) in Markets are to be expected. Natural. Inevitable. Unless the Powers That Be play games and manipulate all of the levers. Paul Volcker had quite a challenge facing him. These days, the Market is not permitted to do what Markets used to do. The creation of the Federal Reserve System was certainly a good thing. Bank runs and Crashes (a-hem) are painful. But a 10-20% correction, allowing younger people to begin to grow a portfolio at a lower p/e, is not evil, I think. (Allowing for mistakes, young people must still be reasonably educated and prepared for the vagaries of the Market, too. Moderation and diversification are, as ever, key.)
I recently rewatched the original Godfather + two sequels. Superb viewing. And a much more competent and principled bunch than what we have running things today. Brando of course excels.
Brokerage / bank / financials getting smacked today. TROW off around 5% last look.
Ya, well. TROW has it coming. Service to clients fell into the toilet long ago.
I’d question how much fund houses / brokerages trade on service. Indirectly, yes. But my reading suggests it’s mostly about AUM and the direction of fund flows - in or out. And, I think TROW has been losing assets.
Ya, well. TROW has it coming. Service to clients fell into the toilet long ago.
I’d question how much fund houses / brokerages trade on service. Indirectly, yes. But my reading suggests it’s mostly about AUM and the direction of fund flows - in or out. And, I think TROW has been losing assets.
AUM would be expected to fall across the industry in a bear market as investor assets fall in value. So, to some extent, performance of these firms may reflect investor sentiment about future direction of the markets and prospects for recession or a market correction.
Also - The types of offerings are important. Money’s been flowing into gold and crypto lately (well until recently). Firms that offer those investments should do well in attracting assets. Interestingly, TROW is about to open a crypto fund pending SEC approval.
Jeff Gundlach warns about overvaluation, euphoria, momentum investing, mania periods, continuing dollar decline, bond market chaos, private credit garbage, coming yield curve manipulation, potential $2,000 tariff dividend bribe, possible “age tax”, (I need a drink), on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots program.
All over X today was the fact that for the first time since April 30 the S@P closed below its 50 day moving average. The fifth longest uptrend since 1950. Going into today we had something like 5 Hindenburg Omens, One in and of itself is pretty meaningless. But 5 much more meaningful. It is easy to be bearish here but still, I don’t trust Trump and as previously mentioned think he will pull out all the stops to keep stocks and bonds afloat before mid terms next November.
Comments
When Michael Corleone asks Clemenza in “The Godfather” about the mob war he’s about to start, he gets the sort of reassurance that comes with experience. “These things gotta happen every five years or so, ten years. Helps to get rid of the bad blood…been ten years since the last one.”
The 'bad blood' is already in place. The question is: How much and for how long, do you want everyone to suffer ???
But the kicker is I would think Trump and Bessent are going to do everything in their power - and I mean everything - to prop up stocks and bonds going into the mid terms. I wouldn’t trust many of the government reports coming out as they may be tilted in favor of their goals,
@Junkster - I agree fully with the political overtones. But there are no guarantees they’ll achieve anything other than more inflation due to excess stimulus. I can’t trade on that other then keep a tilt towards inflation. (No. I don’t mean buy gold at 3X what was worth 5 years ago.)
Added: If prospects are so good for the markets, why do the brokerages keep sliding? TROW down another 2% today.
The taxable accounts are as invested as they have ever been in equities. At the present time we do realize some dividends from our accounts.
The IRA is largely dedicated to short-term investment grade bonds funds. Some, like FGUSX and BBBMX, were bought because of their response to the Great Recession. Of course, there are no guarantees. And let's just hope their dividends can stay ahead of inflation.
So far, this seems like a reasonable bifurcation for our situation.
Today's first non sequitur: I'm wondering what bitcoin is actually good for except a gamble in steadier times, and possibly a way to launder money. It certainly hasn't been doing anything to protect anyone from the decline in the dollar.
and possibly a way to launder money."
I don't "invest" in Bitcoin and probably never will.
But I think Bitcoin does have a few legitimate use cases:
1) Non-criminals who seek to protect their privacy while conducting certain transactions.
2) Store of value for people in countries with ultra-high inflation.
I read most of the Puzo books, and must say that Mario Puzo is a brilliant author. The movies did not follow the books exactly. Of The Godfather (1969), The Sicilian (1984), the Last Don (1986) and Omertà (2000), only the first film was really based on the first book. The others were significantly different.
Brokerage / bank / financials getting smacked today. TROW off around 5% last look.
From that take, the past 6 months have not been entirely "healthy".
Kind of like eating at the All You Can Eat buffet - after you binge, it feels good to purge a bit.
Also - The types of offerings are important. Money’s been flowing into gold and crypto lately (well until recently). Firms that offer those investments should do well in attracting assets. Interestingly, TROW is about to open a crypto fund pending SEC approval.
dividendbribe, possible “age tax”, (I need a drink), on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots program.Some history on the Hindenburg Omen
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/hindenburg_omen_fires_5_signals/