the debasement trade

Comments

• syzygy

  October 14

  @rono- I am in total agreement. There is no way to make the debt clock run backwards.
  
  Debasement is accelerating and metals are the way I preserve purchasing power. I have about 10% in physical gold, silver and platinum. Also SLV and a couple of open end funds that invest in mining stocks. Been a great year for PM bugs!
  
• hank

  October 14 edited October 14

  @rono - ”You’ve been right so long it feels like wrong to me.”
  
  Nice post. Debasement yes.
  
  Personally, I haven’t played in the pm’s for a long while. Have maintained some exposure thru a real assets fund, some managed futures, and some collectible investment grade Morgans. (The cc are especially nice.)
  
  Alternatives to the pm’s? I’ve held FXF for a while and recently bought a bit of FXY. Of course, as you suggest, those are currencies and may be debased along with the dollar. Also, it’s clear to me many managed futures funds are chasing the metals. Nice ride. It will work until it doesn’t.
  
  Speaking of debasement, I mailed a letter today USPS ”Priority” (usually arrives in 1-3 business days). Cost? $11.90
  
  Interesting Photo
  
  Regards
• Old_Joe

  October 14 edited October 14

  
  This Gold Rush Is Ominous
  
  Following are edited excerpts from a current report in The Atlantic.   (This should be a free link.)
  

  When prices are high and global conflicts destabilize the world, some investors start looking backwards—and what’s older and more dependable than gold?
  
  Last week, amid widespread geopolitical turmoil and a weakening U.S. dollar, the price of gold hit a historic high of $4,000 an ounce. This year has so far been gold’s best since 1979, a moment of instability so profound that it led to recession.
  
  Over the past 50 years, spikes in the price of gold have typically been correlated with widespread inflation and geopolitical dysfunction. The precious metal has long been considered a safe-haven asset, because, unlike the U.S. dollar, its inherent value isn’t determined by any state government.
  
  Some investors see gold as a standard way to diversify their portfolio. Others, stereotypically known as goldbugs, tend to be broadly skeptical about contemporary monetary policy. Just as investors in bitcoin, so-called digital gold, have historically skewed libertarian and anti-institutional, the most extreme goldbugs are betting against the system, doubtful that the Federal Reserve is capable of keeping the U.S. dollar strong.
  
  Gold prices have already risen more than 50 percent this year and are showing no signs of stopping. The story of today’s gold boom began in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and Western governments decided to sanction the Russian central bank by freezing its foreign-exchange reserves. The scale of these sanctions was a reminder of why countries might want to own assets that can’t be easily frozen. Especially in emerging markets, central banks around the world “realized that the truly only safe asset” is gold.
  
  The other main driver of this price spike is less abstract. Some Wall Streeters are concerned that the value of the U.S. dollar will continue to erode as the national debt climbs and the Federal Reserve loses its grip on the currency. They’re making what’s become known as the “Debasement Trade,” shifting money away from the weakening U.S. dollar and into harder, more independent assets such as gold and bitcoin. Shrinkflation, stagflation, good-old-fashioned inflation—all of it means that your paycheck doesn’t go as far as it once did, and all of it is good for gold.
  
  The mystery of the current gold rally is that the S&P 500 is also up. The stock-market index reached an all-time high earlier this month, which would seem to suggest that the American economy isn’t quite as close to the brink as the price of gold might indicate.
  
  But the reality probably has to do with a bifurcated market. Vanguard’s global chief economist told The New York Times on Saturday that this rare case of gold and stocks moving in a parallel upward trend has to do with “dramatically different” investor perspectives: The optimists are going with equities, and the pessimists are going with gold. In today’s economy, there’s room enough for both.
• Sven

  12:56AM

  “ Why soaring gold prices could be a warning sign for the economy”

  The flight toward gold has coincided with a depreciation in the value of the U.S. dollar. Its value against other currencies plunged about 11% over the first half of 2025, the biggest decline in more than 50 years, a Morgan Stanley report in August found.
  
  The decline in the U.S. dollar's value reflects a shift away from global dependence on the dollar as a global reserve currency, as investors take note of changes in U.S. economic policy and Trump's pressure campaign against the Fed, analysts said.
  
  "Investors are getting nervous about all the traditionally safe U.S. assets like treasury securities," Pasquariello said. "Where else will they put money? Gold."
  

  https://abcnews.go.com/Business/soaring-gold-prices-warning-sign-economy/story?id=126414464