Some of this has been mentioned in other threads here. What is somewhat surprising to me is how many are all starting to speak up. So, I thought this might deserve its own thread.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/03/goldman-sachs-ceo-david-solomon-warns-stock-market-drawdown-is-coming.html-
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said AI presented opportunities but that some investors were overlooking “things you should be skeptical about.”
-Speaking at Italian Tech Week in Turin, Italy,
he said a “drawdown” was likely to hit stock markets in the coming two years.-“I think that there will be a lot of capital that’s deployed that will turn out to not deliver returns,” he said.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if in the next 12 to 24 months, we see a drawdown with respect to equity markets ...and when that happens, people won’t feel good.”
Amazon founder
Jeff Bezos said Friday that artificial intelligence is currently in an “industrial bubble.”
Karim Moussalem, chief investment officer of equities at Selwood Asset Management, meanwhile, warned of “enormous risks” on the horizon for the AI trade which could rapidly unravel. “The AI trade is beginning to resemble one of the great speculative manias of market history,”
Veteran investor
Leon Cooperman told CNBC that we are in the late innings of a bull market where bubbles can form — something Warren Buffett had warned about.
Most believe there is money to be made, but that the euphoria may be overblown.
Comments
I wouldn't put new money into a fund like GRID, or any of the utes, at this time. If you're just now buying Seagate and Western Digital, well, I would stay close to the door. I'm old enough to remember the last time they boomed.
After that, I think people need to look hard at what they expect AI to do. Those with rosier projection might consider recent comments by Thomas Wolf if they are interested in contrary points of view. Here's one link. And here's another.
Solid data driven analysis
experts disillusioned elsewhere (e.g., toxic media,defense,finance) join Applied Minds and such companies.
as for current bubble , see nobel prize skeptic from mit, and this :
https://slate.com/podcasts/what-next-tbd/2025/09/artificial-intelligence-isnt-a-viable-business-but-investors-are-acting-like-it-is
I’ve been searching in vain for Vanguard’s warning to its investors about excessive valuations made in the late 90s. The most memorable line was: “… trees don’t grow to the sky.” It received a lot of attention across the investment community back then. The markets continued to soar. I did uncover Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s famous “irrational exuberance” remark from December 1996. Market impact lasted for a day or two. For perspective on the then looming catastrophe, in less than a decade (1995-2002) the NASDAQ rose 600% and then lost 78% of its value. Thrills and chills.
Aside - Can’t help wondering how Fed Chair Alan Greenspan might have dealt with the kind of attacks on him personally and on the institution we have witnessed recently. My bet is he wouldn’t have taken it lying down.
What I question, and several here have commented upon, is the enthusiasm and trajectory at this point in the process. What it might lead to if it doesn't produce relatively immediate and massive change (and profits). And what role AI is currently playing in the year's market gains.
I do see a lot of parallels to Dotcom. Working in telecom, I was right in the middle of all of that. From my perspective, it was all about the routers and optical fiber. Eventually, the big players bought up all that excess fiber capacity at pennies on the dollar. And routers became commodities. Debt also played a huge role. Selling the hardware to start ups, and financing the purchases, turned out to be a big mistake. All sorts of accounting tricks were also employed to make profits look much better than they really were.
Then reality set in.
Key figures on AI's impact:
-75% of S&P 500 gains: Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, AI-related stocks drove 75% of the gains in the S&P 500, according to a September 2025 analysis by JPMorgan.
-60% of 2025 market returns: In 2025, approximately 60% of market returns were attributed to AI-related stocks.
-Dominance of the "Magnificent Seven": Much of this growth is tied to a handful of companies, including Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla.
-Through the first three quarters of 2025, this group added $3.1 trillion in market capitalization.
-Sector-specific outperformance: A Morningstar analysis showed that a basket of 38 AI stocks significantly outperformed the overall market in the third quarter of 2025, gaining 15.7% compared to the market's 7.7% return.
I don't know about you guys, but I am not feeling any better after reading that! If true, this bubble has been forming for 3 years already. And is highly focused on the usual suspects.
Now they have plenty of credible peers. Still a good company though.
M* says they are currently over-valued. But, have a wide moat and great capital allocation structure.
I sold CSCO in my IRA at a profit of something like $40,000 but my wife pulled a Warren Buffet ( holding period forever etc) and in her taxable account we rode CSCO down.
We kept ORCL.
Now what? Anybody else in the same boat? We have a capital gain of $250 a share
A lot of older folks got it worse, they kept buying more as the stock slid to 1/10 of its market high. Then came the layoffs. We went from 120K employees to about 35K IIRC. The good news was that I kept my job. Two mergers later, I am still with them. Now a multinational with over 100K employees again. It has been a wild ride!
The stock options I had at the Dot Com I worked for (global DNS operator / 'center of the internet') went from a strike of $14 to a high of over $400. Having come from government, I dutifully sold whatever vested the day i could because to me it was 'found money' that I wouldn't have had otherwise....mostly as the stock kept rising. The rest, I dumped the day I left at $92 as the NASDAQ was crashing in Jan '01 which paid off a mortgage I had for all of 3 months. (Still living here!)
If I knew then what I know now, I would've played with put options to hedge some of my paper winnings when I couldn't sell them. But while a few friends sold and made high single digit MM at the top, I certainly can't complain with what I came away with either.
The only reason SAIC spun us off and sold us to VRSN was because our price was driving the private stock of SAIC too high, and the employee-friendly CEO always wanted the stock to be available to *anyone* in the company at a reachable price. So we were sold to VRSN for $21B. (SAIC paid 4.7M for us only 5 years earlier ... so we essentially gave that huge defense contractor several years of profits right there). The company never really recovered afterwards, though, and the name today is merely a shadow of its former self, now owned by a PE-backed web services conglomerate.
I am not really interested in any AI companies. There's too much hopium going around, the stocks are pumped ten ways to Sunday, and in a few years folks hopefully will see that the 'magic' of AI isn't what the hype purported it would be. The only 'AI' exposure I have is in natgas and electric utes around the world .. but even then, they were necessary even before AI came to town. The world (ex-US) is embracing renewables, and natgas is a transition fuel anyway.
The timing was both good and bad. Good, because it all occurred before I had built a large amount of portfolio balance. Bad, because that "seed money" could have really accelerated over time. Also good, because it made me far more serious about taking charge of my investing, and learning about investing. That has ultimately paid off! As they say, "no regerts".
Now, the question becomes, "is it all happening again", and if so, "how do I avoid being battered about again". Being well past the accumulation stage, I need to let asset-preservation out weigh FOMO. A complete one-eighty.
@DrVenture .. exactly my situation now. I'm sitting on over 1000% gain in a stock that is now worth almost as much as my condo was when I bought it in 2000 (srslywtf!) ... it's money that could easily go towards other income-producing assets now that I'm in midlife, but I'm still holding on for now.
My other investing? Nearly all in quality dividend stocks with just a few small growth positions to keep it interesting.