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Defense sector has done well over the last couple of years, but where is it headed with upcoming Ukraine talks and the prospects for ceasefire? Any specific fund or stock buy/sell ideas?
Ukraine talks without Zelenskyy is a comical farce. The Orange Criminal Farce is pushing the EU to do more on their own. EU defence stocks are already running higher. You might chase that wave. If I had a mind to invest in defense stocks, I'd steer clear of Boeing. Political junk is pushing other countries (like Spain, I just was reading) to buy Swedish military jets, rather than US-made ones. Canada is busy stepping-up its game, too--- so that it is not so dependent upon US goodwill; because there just isn't much goodwill at the gummint level. Check out Bombardier. BDRAF ticker. ******************* "Bombardier Defense was established in 2022, reflecting the company’s strategic expansion of the unique aircraft solutions it has been providing for decades to special mission operators around the world. The expanding portfolio of services ranges from urgent humanitarian assistance, head-of-state transport to airspace calibration, infrastructure validation and battlefield and border surveillance." https://defense.bombardier.com/en
@Crash Really nice jump for Bombardier in July. Alas, I am generally leery of buying individual stocks after a big move. Also, after brief research, it looks like the stock nearly doubled in the runup to / after a major order. But while the order was indeed big at $1.7B, the market cap has gone up $5B+... Is there more to it that I've missed?
@rforno What is your outlook for European defense & aerospace going forward (especially, if we get a ceasefire or some other hostilities reprieve in Ukraine)?
@rforno What is your outlook for European defense & aerospace going forward (especially, if we get a ceasefire or some other hostilities reprieve in Ukraine)?
I think the EU is going to ramp up defense spending going forward b/c 2025 has likely confirmed they can no longer trust/count on US policies, government, technology, or security committments. Germany already announced a HUGE defense spending plan, so .... we'll see.
Allies need to get serious re: aid to Ukraine, need to give Zelenskyy enough to WIN, not just to survive, barely. That goes for the US and Europe and whoever else. Putin's got the manpower, but he's not afraid to waste it. "Cannon fodder." The Allies need to make Putin feel the hurt. Remember the international volunteers during Spanish Civil War? Are there any int'l vols coming forward to assist Ukraine--- on the water or on the land or in the air? (And remember the Ukrainians' response to that very first provocation? The Russians demanded the Ukes surrender their installation on the shore of the Black Sea.)
Saab must be bought on the Stockholm Exchange. BAE Systems is British. 1.8% div. yield. But watch out for the taxes taken before you see any of it. I know you said you don't prefer single-stocks, @yugo. Ticker is BAESY. https://www.stockrover.com/quotes/insight/summary/Quotes/q_BAESY
All great suggestions on Europe. We double our international exposure, particularly Europe since January for the same reason. If Ukraine fall, the east Europe countries are next. As @Crash states, EU can no longer rely on US to help the NATO.
most quantitative information points to a fairly long life for the EU defense sector, pulling up EU economies in general. there is some fuzziness around how long certain EU military buys must continue from america to retain critical platform compatibility.
enthusiasm for american defense companies is ~midterm, as capacity builds in europe; that reliance will decrease irregularly for a decade or so. there are always those few that think trump will come to his senses and the world will again trust an american populace that elected him twice (and who knows what's next). also, simply on performance:price rather than politics, countries like south korea excel in many parts of the defense sector after being informed never to rely on equipment availability from the west.
Warfare has evolved today as showed in Russia-Ukraine war. Despite the large advantages Russia have in terms of manpower and armament, they have lost heavily in battle fronts time and time again. Weapons and tactics have changed in favor of Ukraine. Who would guess small and cheap drones are so devastating against tanks and ships.
Ukraine is doing the best they can with help from the west, but much more is needed in order to defeat Russia. Time is running out with this administration. In the meantime, Ukraine is sacrificing both their both military and civilian lives in the conflict.
EU can speed up the strengthening of their defense, and new tactics must be adapted quickly to maintain their own security, and depends on US, at least this administration.
Comments
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"Bombardier Defense was established in 2022, reflecting the company’s strategic expansion of the unique aircraft solutions it has been providing for decades to special mission operators around the world. The expanding portfolio of services ranges from urgent humanitarian assistance, head-of-state transport to airspace calibration, infrastructure validation and battlefield and border surveillance."
https://defense.bombardier.com/en
https://www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/bdraf?mod=searchresults_companyquotes&mod=searchbar&search_keywords=bdraf&search_statement_type=suggested
https://www.stockrover.com/quotes/insight/summary/Quotes/q_BDRAF
HQ in Montreal.
(The chart shows a huge ramp-up just in 2025. But there is no dividend offered, currently.)
Saab must be bought on the Stockholm Exchange.
BAE Systems is British. 1.8% div. yield. But watch out for the taxes taken before you see any of it. I know you said you don't prefer single-stocks, @yugo.
Ticker is BAESY.
https://www.stockrover.com/quotes/insight/summary/Quotes/q_BAESY
Fidelity Select Defense & Aerospace FSDAX appears to be the big dog in the OEF world, up 37.7% YTD but with only 6.3% in non-US equity.
ITA - iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF up 35.2% YTD
PPA - Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF up 27.5% YTD
And one more:
Top 10 Aerospace and Defense Companies in Europe in 2021 by Revenue
Certainly beats 3% YTD in a money market fund. (TIC)
https://reuters.com/markets/eu-could-win-the-trade-war-with-us-2025-08-07/
enthusiasm for american defense companies is ~midterm, as capacity builds in europe; that reliance will decrease irregularly for a decade or so.
there are always those few that think trump will come to his senses and the world will again trust an american populace that elected him twice (and who knows what's next).
also, simply on performance:price rather than politics, countries like south korea excel in many parts of the defense sector after being informed never to rely on equipment availability from the west.
Ukraine is doing the best they can with help from the west, but much more is needed in order to defeat Russia. Time is running out with this administration. In the meantime, Ukraine is sacrificing both their both military and civilian lives in the conflict.
EU can speed up the strengthening of their defense, and new tactics must be adapted quickly to maintain their own security, and depends on US, at least this administration.
Japan figured it out in WWII - Except their “drones” were piloted by humans.
Albeit - Today’s suicide craft are smaller and lighter and are piloted remotely or by AI.