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AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/13/25

yogibearbullyogibearbull
in Other Investing
AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/13/25
BEARISH remained the top sentiment (46.2%, high) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (24.0%, below average); bullish remained the middle sentiment (29.9%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -16.3% (very low). Investor concerns: TARIFFs, budget, jobs, inflation, recession, Fed, debt, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (181+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+20 weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil down, gold down, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 69.17% (positive). CPI +2.7%, core +3.1%. There are varying expectations for meeting between Trump & Putin in Alaska on Friday. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Sentiments are CONTRARIAN indicators.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2158/thread

Comments

  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    PPI +3.3%, core +2.8%.
    Whole sale PPI leads retail CPI. So, the near-term trend of CPI is up, of core CPI down.
  • Sven
    edited August 14
    Thank you @yogibb for the data. The full impact of tariffs has been delayed due to front-loading of imported goods. In coming months, the full effect will show up in goods price as well as higher CPI. This morning the wholesale prices was reported that rose 0.9% in July, much more than expected.

    Just as a side note, we experienced in our travel this year a considerable higher cost in hotels, food, and entertainment than previous years.
  • DrVenture
    Yes, Thanks.

    Something that seems appropriate here is:

    https://www.alternet.org/trump-economy-2673884073/

    If anyone (Yogi?) objects to this being here, I will delete it.

    "Bloomberg reports U.S. box shipments to retailers — for the purpose of packaging new purchases — “fell to the lowest second-quarter reading since 2015, according to data from Fibre Box Association.”

    Meanwhile, Memphis-based International Paper Co., one of the world’s largest pulp and paper companies, reported a 5 percent drop in daily U.S. box shipments in the same quarter compared to a year ago. Bloomberg reports International Paper recently announced that it will close four facilities, including a mill that helped keep a small town alive in Louisiana. Paper company Smurfit Westrock announced plans to shutter one of its own mills in Iowa.

    “In short, it’s not looking great out there for box manufacturers,” reports Bloomberg reporter Ilena Peng.

    “In a country where consumer spending makes up almost 70 percent of the economy, any retrenchment in retail activity tends to put economy watchers and government officials on alert,” reports Bloomberg. And while the strength of the highly seasonal cardboard box industry “isn’t necessarily a one-to-one proxy for retail spending,” like beauty-shop outlays or consumer sentiment, it “can flash early signals when things start to go amiss.”

    Brett House, a professor of economics at Columbia Business School, told Bloomberg that boxes aren’t usually ordered far in advance, so they can offer a “nearly real-time indicator” of buying and manufacturing activity in the U.S. economy."
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    Very interesting.
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