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I have already been moving more of the IRA out of money markets into ultra-short funds--or funds with similar durations/volatility. At the present time there are too many unknowns between me and taking on more duration or volatility due solely to rate cuts.
"WIN" - which stood for "Whip Inflation Now" - buttons were distributed in 1974. The campaign was a voluntary program introduced by President Gerald Ford in October 1974 to encourage American citizens to combat the high inflation of the time. The red and white "WIN" buttons became a prominent symbol of this initiative. The effort was a significant, though ultimately unsuccessful, part of the Ford administration's attempt to address the nation's economic challenges.
Now we could have these buttons:
DUMP - Dump Unreasonable Monetary Policy
SLASH - Swiftly Lower All Strict Hikes
EASE - End Austerity, Stimulate Economy
If I could get on CNBC with these buttons, who knows what calls I would get..
@yogibearbull. Thanks for all your many contributions to this forum. Always appreciated. I am a bit surprised by your above post on interest rates. That sounds like a market call,, not typical of your posts.
The voting members of the Fed are now under house arrest in occupied District of Columbia,, just renamed Washington DT. They will not be released until they do the right thing and reduce short term rates to ZERO. So says the supreme orange boy.
If the FED is worried at all about inflation, as shown in the PPI, there ought to be no rate cut at all, yet, until a downward TREND over several months is seen. But I've always been a minority of one.
We have started to see signs of increased inflation with more to come in the near future. The Fed has not yet attained its 2% inflation goal (measured by PCE) over the long run. Unemployment is near historically low levels but job growth slowed considerably from May to July. The federal funds rate is normally raised to suppress inflation and cut when the economy is struggling and unemployment surges. I would not cut the federal funds rate in September based on the current data. I could change my mind if an upcoming data release indicated that unemployment increased (or will increase) considerably. New PCE, CPI, and employment data will be released and scrutinized prior to the Fed's September meeting.
I haven't altered my portfolio's bond positioning to benefit from a rate cut. DOXIX is my largest bond position (~18% of portfolio)—this interm. core-plus fund should benefit from rate cuts. My other sizable fixed income investments include a 5 yr. TIPS and a 6 mo. T-Bill.
At the risk of stating the obvious,,,, the Fed has a dual mandate. To use the tools at its disposal to control inflation and to fight increasing unemployment. When they both increase at the same time it’s pretty difficult to raise rates to deal with increasing inflation and lower rates to deal with rising unemployment at the same time. Throw in unprecedented raw political pressure and something might go wrong. Very wrong. That’s way stagflation is a bitch.
"U.S. import prices rebounded in July, boosted by higher costs for consumer goods, the latest indication that inflation was poised to pick up because of tariffs.
Import prices increased 0.4% last month after a downwardly revised 0.1% dip in June, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast import prices, which exclude tariffs, unchanged after a previously reported 0.1% gain in June."
Comments
I have already been moving more of the IRA out of money markets into ultra-short funds--or funds with similar durations/volatility. At the present time there are too many unknowns between me and taking on more duration or volatility due solely to rate cuts.
The campaign was a voluntary program introduced by President Gerald Ford in October 1974 to encourage American citizens to combat the high inflation of the time. The red and white "WIN" buttons became a prominent symbol of this initiative. The effort was a significant, though ultimately unsuccessful, part of the Ford administration's attempt to address the nation's economic challenges.
Now we could have these buttons:
DUMP - Dump Unreasonable Monetary Policy
SLASH - Swiftly Lower All Strict Hikes
EASE - End Austerity, Stimulate Economy
If I could get on CNBC with these buttons, who knows what calls I would get..
The Fed has not yet attained its 2% inflation goal (measured by PCE) over the long run.
Unemployment is near historically low levels but job growth slowed considerably from May to July.
The federal funds rate is normally raised to suppress inflation
and cut when the economy is struggling and unemployment surges.
I would not cut the federal funds rate in September based on the current data.
I could change my mind if an upcoming data release indicated that unemployment
increased (or will increase) considerably.
New PCE, CPI, and employment data will be released and scrutinized prior to the Fed's September meeting.
I haven't altered my portfolio's bond positioning to benefit from a rate cut.
DOXIX is my largest bond position (~18% of portfolio)—this interm. core-plus fund should benefit from rate cuts.
My other sizable fixed income investments include a 5 yr. TIPS and a 6 mo. T-Bill.
"U.S. import prices rebounded in July, boosted by higher costs for consumer goods, the latest indication that inflation was poised to pick up because of tariffs.
Import prices increased 0.4% last month after a downwardly revised 0.1% dip in June, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast import prices, which exclude tariffs, unchanged after a previously reported 0.1% gain in June."