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Morningstar Digest July 17 top story is about politics and the markets,,,, Is that OK to talk about
“Will Trump Really Fire Powell? Markets Whipsaw with Fed Independence Online ” Article directly connects politics and our investments. Has M* become part of the lunatic left,,,, does M* have TDS? I think not. When, if ever, will this fine forum accept that these are not normal times and the Orange Revolution will sooner or later impact markets,,,,, its not a question of if,,, it’s a question of market timing.
Let us suppose an American investor has chosen to invest in U.S. centered holdings, due to the stability of the country. 40% equity, 20% investment grade bonds and 40% in MMKT's. Oh, wait; that is our house.
As international investors, both retail and large houses continue to watch the machinations in this country. Many will have second thoughts about U.S. holdings, as they watch the 'rule of law' disappear, as well as the unstable and ever changing monetary policies change at an hourly rate..........well, yes this affects our investments.
As the deterioration continues in this area, one finds the dollar whacks downward, and more future unwillingness to participate in Treasury holdings.
Our country's place in the world of admiration and respect is going bye-bye.
And, yes; the instability originates from the current administration, and its operatives.
@hank - I am of the opinion(s) that US based rules, regulations and laws mean nothing to the current administration and only exist to be bent, broken or ignored whenever they see them fit to their advantage with the mostly full backing of the current SCOTUS. I don't necessarily invest that way but it does add a layer of tempering to my decision making.
For years and years I was near always invested in nothing but equities, primarily those inhabiting the momentum space. Not no more.
At Hank. I have been building positions in PRPFX and TRIGX. I am not adding to CGDV. Also a small position in DODLX for global bonds. I am long past being an accumulator and have no great insights. My key motivation in not to lose capital,,, As I have often opined, the orange revolution is historically significant and will impact all aspects of American’s daily and investing life. Ignore at your own peril.
There are, I suppose, ways to actually move one’s assets abroad. Beyond my scope. But ISTM if you are doing so as a U.S. citizen they still are subject to many U.S. laws including those of the IRS. I did read in either Barron’s or the WSJ a couple months ago that an unusually large number of U.S. investors have taken out dual citizenship in both the U.S. and a foreign country for the purpose of moving U.S. based assets abroad.
Yes, it's patently clear that the current Orange regime will bend, spindle, mutilate, fold and ignore at will--- whichever works best for their own aims in each case, regardless of the needs of the country, or stability, trustworthiness or the rule of law.
Dual citizenship? Ding! I would have to create an address in Ireland. I'd surely need to sign-up for their version of S.S. and become ipsofacto eligible for their national health plan, which is income-based. Then, I could easily create an account, online or otherwise, to invest in companies directly, and intentionally avoid dealing with USA authorities and the IRS. Our erstwhile "friend" Chang is doing it already, living in ..... Andorra. Those with parents or grandparents who came from Ireland, Poland, Italy, Sweden and some other places may apply for dual citizenship. Of course, that's subject to change; and spouses may or may not qualify--- though the spouse of an EU citizen does hold some citizen-like privileges, medical plan inclusion among them.
I'll provide this for now; as we have a 9 yo nephew bday party that can not be missed.
A new French mural. There is an arrow on the right edge to step through the images. OR select the red arrow at the left bottom for audio/video and wait for a short AD to play.
Maybe Canada for that dual citizenship, but they don't easily accept US applications. And we might try to "annex" them at some point in this administration anyway.
Hank. Did you read my post or did the word politics trigger you ? The point was not to micro analyze an article or imagine words like theft and seizure ….. THE POINT WAS THAT MAINSTREAM ,,, not the lunatic left commentary recognize the connection between political actors and the markets. Have a great day Hank.
Maybe Canada for that dual citizenship, but they don't easily accept US applications. And we might try to "annex" them at some point in this administration anyway.
Some Caribbean islands are virtually SELLING citizenships and passports. But It's not cheap. Vanuatu, too. And Nauru. But the EU and US have begun to throw up roadblocks in such cases. Some of those programs are not very accountable nor reliable. And it's been shown that in some cases, you'd be getting a 2nd-class citizenship; or much of the money ends up in officials' pockets. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigrant_investor_programs
Hi @hank et al A portion from my initial write above --- As international investors, both retail and large houses continue to watch the machinations in this country. Many will have second thoughts about U.S. holdings, as they watch the 'rule of law' disappear, as well as the unstable and ever changing monetary policies change at an hourly rate..........well, yes this affects our investments.
As the deterioration continues in this area, one finds the dollar whacks downward, and more future unwillingness to participate in Treasury holdings.---
I was not discussing moving accounts out of the U.S.; I'm attempting to determine how far the pendulum may swing away from some U.S. sectors. I won't chase international at this point, although this may be in error, not to. I watch momentum, but too much of the monetary crazies are place; emanating from this country. We haven't changed anything in the portfolio this year...yet. But, the healthcare section is damaged way beyond normal from the legislative changes. We'll stay for now. We won't abandon tech. IG bonds are still in place, as well as the MMKT's.
But, capital preservation is the highest priority.
The investing world is 'torn' and searching. And we can't and won't play the high risk, as in the earlier years.
At Hank. “Adjusting portfolio to age” would be a great thread. As always it’s very personal. I have a close friend who has a chronic illness, is in an assisted living facility , is running out of money and claims to be 95% equity. Cognitive decline? Anyway that would be a very interesting discussion with lots of opinions.
The Schwab recommendation is pretty close to what we have done, although we didn't rely on Schwab or any other specific input for our decisions.
Now in our 80s, at the moment our "reserve savings" are 57% MMKT and 43% fixed income. The fixed is divided into 53% short & medium term Treasury, and 47% CDs. All of the reserve savings are for income, and all will be held to maturity, so the daily valuation gyrations are not really a factor for us.
We are able to forgo the stock exposure because our SS & pension income is sufficient to cover our normal expenses, with a bit left over to increase the reserve savings and help offset inflation. I guess that you could call our category "Ultra Conservative".
Being in our 80s we do wake up a number of times from sleep, but it's not because of financial worry.
At Old_Joe. We are also Ultra Conservative as well. No real need to take much risk. We also have a Reserve Savings like you , similarly allocated. I often think about just having one pile,, I call it the single metric instead of two buckets plus checking. The Reserve Savings is reassuring.
As we all know, as has been stated here many times, there are a lot of variables affecting a portfolio mix. I offer this 19 year old real world example for a 529 for a view over time. This is a self-directed account started at 50/50 equity/bond with a mandatory rebalance every September. The funds currently used are VITPX and VBMPX. These institutional tickers have changed a few time over the years, but still remain as TOTAL U.S. for holdings for each fund.
The included GFC period is: 2006-2009 (4 years). VITPX was -3% for the period (max drawdown was about -43% for a brief period) VBMPX was +23% for the period ---A blended annualized of +5% for this period.
For the full period, 7.65%. Definitely acceptable.
A true LAZY portfolio. But, this was fashioned for capital protection; as portfolio changes were limited to 1 per year initially, and now 2 per year. This was not an account we wanted to play 'cowboy' with.
Hi @hank Thanks for you work, too. The early period starting in 2006, for several years was the main contribution period into the account. With the equity market melt in 2008 and not really getting back to 'even' for about 4 years is when we continued to make contributions; and buying 'low' pricing. A benefit of dollar cost averaging. And, yes; a few periods were 'hang on'. But, for the full period, 7.65% is definitely acceptable. 'Course the intention of a 529 being for education, the monies are tax sheltered; and with the new regs from Secure Act 2.0; if guidelines are met, up to $35,000 of the open 529 may be transferred ($7,000 max/year) to a Roth IRA of the beneficiary 'without' any tax implications. State tax deductions from taxable income are also available to whom contributes to the account. Taxation is in place if the account balance is liquidated in total; but the account may be transferred to another beneficiary without taxation. Taxation is only on the earning of the account, and not upon the contributions. A pretty sweet deal for the most part Take care of you and yours, Catch
“Will Trump Really Fire Powell? Markets Whipsaw with Fed Independence Online ” Article directly connects politics and our investments. Has M* become part of the lunatic left,,,, does M* have TDS? I think not. When, if ever, will this fine forum accept that these are not normal times and the Orange Revolution will sooner or later impact markets,,,,, its not a question of if,,, it’s a question of market timing.
Several posters have been TDSing this site for months. They have been posting political takes nearly every day, and it’s clear they dislike Trump. That’s their right—but this isn’t a political forum.
If the goal is to connect politics to markets, then back it up with data that helps people make smarter investment decisions.
So far, in 2025, the S&P 500 is hitting highs, and bonds are performing well. If the political views don’t match that reality, maybe it’s time to refocus on investments instead.
Yelling that the world is on fire and spreading despair doesn't help anyone make money.
We're here to share strategies, data, and ideas that help us navigate the markets—not to get caught up in doom-and-gloom narratives that don’t align with current performance.
If you think the sky is falling, fine—but show us how that translates into smart investment decisions. Otherwise, it's just noise.
Comments
Let us suppose an American investor has chosen to invest in U.S. centered holdings, due to the stability of the country. 40% equity, 20% investment grade bonds and 40% in MMKT's. Oh, wait; that is our house.
As international investors, both retail and large houses continue to watch the machinations in this country. Many will have second thoughts about U.S. holdings,
as they watch the 'rule of law' disappear, as well as the unstable and ever changing monetary policies change at an hourly rate..........well, yes this affects our investments.
As the deterioration continues in this area, one finds the dollar whacks downward, and more future unwillingness to participate in Treasury holdings.
Our country's place in the world of admiration and respect is going bye-bye.
And, yes; the instability originates from the current administration, and its operatives.
dFor years and years I was near always invested in nothing but equities, primarily those inhabiting the momentum space. Not no more.
dYes, it's patently clear that the current Orange regime will bend, spindle, mutilate, fold and ignore at will--- whichever works best for their own aims in each case, regardless of the needs of the country, or stability, trustworthiness or the rule of law.
Dual citizenship? Ding! I would have to create an address in Ireland. I'd surely need to sign-up for their version of S.S. and become ipso facto eligible for their national health plan, which is income-based. Then, I could easily create an account, online or otherwise, to invest in companies directly, and intentionally avoid dealing with USA authorities and the IRS. Our erstwhile "friend" Chang is doing it already, living in ..... Andorra. Those with parents or grandparents who came from Ireland, Poland, Italy, Sweden and some other places may apply for dual citizenship. Of course, that's subject to change; and spouses may or may not qualify--- though the spouse of an EU citizen does hold some citizen-like privileges, medical plan inclusion among them.
I haven't read it yet nor have I ever considered the angle of moving my investments/holdings outside the US. Thanks for pointing out that aspect.
dA new French mural. There is an arrow on the right edge to step through the images. OR select the red arrow at the left bottom for audio/video and wait for a short AD to play.
dddhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigrant_investor_programs
A portion from my initial write above
--- As international investors, both retail and large houses continue to watch the machinations in this country. Many will have second thoughts about U.S. holdings,
as they watch the 'rule of law' disappear, as well as the unstable and ever changing monetary policies change at an hourly rate..........well, yes this affects our investments.
As the deterioration continues in this area, one finds the dollar whacks downward, and more future unwillingness to participate in Treasury holdings.---
I was not discussing moving accounts out of the U.S.; I'm attempting to determine how far the pendulum may swing away from some U.S. sectors. I won't chase international at this point, although this may be in error, not to.
I watch momentum, but too much of the monetary crazies are place; emanating from this country.
We haven't changed anything in the portfolio this year...yet. But, the healthcare section is damaged way beyond normal from the legislative changes. We'll stay for now. We won't abandon tech. IG bonds are still in place, as well as the MMKT's.
But, capital preservation is the highest priority.
The investing world is 'torn' and searching. And we can't and won't play the high risk, as in the earlier years.
ddNow in our 80s, at the moment our "reserve savings" are 57% MMKT and 43% fixed income. The fixed is divided into 53% short & medium term Treasury, and 47% CDs. All of the reserve savings are for income, and all will be held to maturity, so the daily valuation gyrations are not really a factor for us.
We are able to forgo the stock exposure because our SS & pension income is sufficient to cover our normal expenses, with a bit left over to increase the reserve savings and help offset inflation. I guess that you could call our category "Ultra Conservative".
Being in our 80s we do wake up a number of times from sleep, but it's not because of financial worry.
I offer this 19 year old real world example for a 529 for a view over time.
This is a self-directed account started at 50/50 equity/bond with a mandatory rebalance every September. The funds currently used are VITPX and VBMPX. These institutional tickers have changed a few time over the years, but still remain as TOTAL U.S. for holdings for each fund.
The included GFC period is: 2006-2009 (4 years).
VITPX was -3% for the period (max drawdown was about -43% for a brief period)
VBMPX was +23% for the period
---A blended annualized of +5% for this period. For the full period, 7.65%. Definitely acceptable.
A true LAZY portfolio. But, this was fashioned for capital protection; as portfolio changes were limited to 1 per year initially, and now 2 per year. This was not an account we wanted to play 'cowboy' with.
Well, anyway; have a nice evening.
Catch
dThe early period starting in 2006, for several years was the main contribution period into the account. With the equity market melt in 2008 and not really getting back to 'even' for about 4 years is when we continued to make contributions; and buying 'low' pricing. A benefit of dollar cost averaging. And, yes; a few periods were 'hang on'. But, for the full period, 7.65% is definitely acceptable.
'Course the intention of a 529 being for education, the monies are tax sheltered; and with the new regs from Secure Act 2.0; if guidelines are met, up to $35,000 of the open 529 may be transferred ($7,000 max/year) to a Roth IRA of the beneficiary 'without' any tax implications.
State tax deductions from taxable income are also available to whom contributes to the account.
Taxation is in place if the account balance is liquidated in total; but the account may be transferred to another beneficiary without taxation. Taxation is only on the earning of the account, and not upon the contributions.
A pretty sweet deal for the most part
Take care of you and yours,
Catch
They have been posting political takes nearly every day, and it’s clear they dislike Trump. That’s their right—but this isn’t a political forum.
If the goal is to connect politics to markets, then back it up with data that helps people make smarter investment decisions.
So far, in 2025, the S&P 500 is hitting highs, and bonds are performing well. If the political views don’t match that reality, maybe it’s time to refocus on investments instead.
Yelling that the world is on fire and spreading despair doesn't help anyone make money.
We're here to share strategies, data, and ideas that help us navigate the markets—not to get caught up in doom-and-gloom narratives that don’t align with current performance.
If you think the sky is falling, fine—but show us how that translates into smart investment decisions. Otherwise, it's just noise.
The OP is under Fund Discussions. Why?
d