The Cato institute ( with George Will's endorsement) is a very Conservative think tank focusing on individual liberty, free enterprise and economics.
They have an analysis of the massive recessionary and stagflation impact of the ICE budget. ICE budget will be $170 Billion, and will probably all be spent immediately on prisons, extra agents ($200,000 a piece) and the wall.
Cato thinks that the CBO projections of additional $3 Tr to debt are too conservative. they think there will be at least additional $4 Trillion to the debt.
$1 Trillion is the negative effects on the economy of deportations.
https://www.cato.org/blog/deportations-add-almost-1-trillion-costs-gops-big-beautiful-billAdd to this the 50% cuts in NIH and NSF budgets, where ever dollar spent produces $3 in return, and I think you can see why we are headed for stagflation and likely a recession and/or depression.
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Many said similar stuff about Trump first term and the economy was pretty good for years until covid.
Who can forget Nobel Prize Krugman "great" forecast in 2016.
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/krugman-trump-global-recession-2016-231055
We should just accept that removing lower wage workers from agriculture, construction, hospitality, healthcare, etc will have no impact on productivity or labor costs! We should accept that cutting revenues and not cutting spending will work out, even though it never has done so before.
If it had worked during the first Trump administration, the deficit/debt would be lower every year since. That has not happened.
https://www.propublica.org/article/national-debt-trump
"The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office. That’s nearly twice as much as what Americans owe on student loans, car loans, credit cards and every other type of debt other than mortgages, combined, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It amounts to about $23,500 in new federal debt for every person in the country.
The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration."
"Federal finances under Trump had become dire even before the pandemic. That happened even though the economy was booming and unemployment was at historically low levels.”
The combination of Trump’s 2017 tax cut and the lack of any serious spending restraint helped both the deficit and the debt soar. So when the once-in-a-lifetime viral disaster slammed our country and we threw more than $3 trillion into COVID-19-related stimulus, there was no longer any margin for error."