Trying to simplify a previously rambling post -
I realize short-term Treasuries, FDIC / government insured deposits and money market funds lead the list of options in terms of safety and liquidity. That said, are there other options you are comfortable with within the context of a broadly diversified portfolio?
JAAA? I think many misunderstand CLOs, conflating them with
CDOs which did play a big part in the 2007-09 financial crisis / market crash. That by no means says they’re even close to cash for safety. M* interestingly assesses JAAA bond quality at 100% AAA! That’s unfortunate. We all know AAA rated CLO
pools of debt can include lower-rated bonds.
NEAR? Right now I have a significant position in NEAR. I’m thinking it should outdistance cash by a percent or two over 3-year periods (+ -), albeit with a slightly bumpier ride. The credit quality is very high. Might even gain during an equity “rout”, having some duration and very high credit quality.
I’m ambiguous re TBUX (a cousin of longer running TRBUX). Take a look at credit quality. It holds a significant amount of BBB rated credit (38+%) - just one step above junk status. However, duration is extremely short. I held a lot of TRBUX when I was with TRP and preferred it to cash. TRBUX took quite a hit in March ‘20 at the beginning of the Covid crisis due to global liquidity issues. Quickly, the Fed stepped in to back investment grade corporates and everything recovered nicely.
VNLA? Longer duration than TBUX. But shorter than NEAR. Investment grade corporate bonds mostly. I thought M* did a nice job dissecting the moving parts including a (well respected) new manager who’s from Australia and recently moved to California to run the fund. Very high credit quality, but lower than NEAR. Janus Henderson has a number of short to moderate duration fixed income offerings and all seem highly regarded.
** Not seeking specific investment advice or looking for 1 “right” answer. Would enjoy hearing different people’s takes on one or more ot the options laid out with the goal of arriving at a better understanding of risk / reward across the board.
Thanks to all who responded / may respond ….
Comments
A post with my thoughts is linked below.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/191039/#Comment_191039
Really just interested in how others handle this. Some, I’m sure, want the safety of government backed paper. In fact, James Stack consistently recommends to his followers that their non-invested money be held in money market funds or T-Bills. And the guy knows a lot.
Thanks all.
What to use beyond that depends on one's objective(s). If one is looking at making periodic payments within the next few months (e.g. property taxes, mortgage payments, insurance premiums, income tax estimates, etc.) then buying individual treasuries maturing at the right time look good. The treasury yield curve is flat out to six months (around 4.35%)
If one is looking at opportunistically replenishing one's "checking" account, then looking at funds with durations up to two years (NEAR being at the outer fringe) makes sense. I'd focus more on drawdown recovery times than volatility risk. Alternatively, one might want to optimize risk/reward.
I asked Portfolio Visualizer to do that with eight funds. Four of those were mentioned here: USFR, PULS, TBUX, NEAR. Since PV doesn't optimize cash, I substituted ICSH for a MMF. For the other three I added two floating rate non-treasury funds, FFRHX (bank loan, junk) and FLRN (IG). Finally I added CBUDX which has gotten some mention on MFO.
PV reports that one optimizes reward/risk generally with a mix of CBUDX and FFRHX - the more risk one is willing to take, the more one adds FFRHX. It's only at the low end of risk (very low portfolio volatility) that one emphasizes USFR. And there's a narrow range of risks (volatility) of risk where ~10% in PULS helps. If it makes you feel more comfortable, an equal allocation of all eight of these funds is not far off the efficient frontier, so that works too.
If anyone is wondering why I didn't include RPHIX, it's because the results aren't that much different from using CBUDX. Substituting RPHIX for CBUDX, the mixture graph (which funds for what volatility) is fairly unchanged. Though the max Sharpe ratio is a higher as are the returns with RPHIX.
You make excellent points. Complicating things is that I’ve stashed about a year’s anticipated IRA distributions in SPAXX. A slug of that is anticipated for infrastructure. Absolutely want that $$ in a money market fund. Just don’t want to actually “distribute” it until needed. So my question hinged more on cash as a longer term portfolio position, equal in weight to several other holdings (with occasional rebalancing back to neutral).
Re trading - I lost a bit when I sold JAAA in late April in order to buy equities and other risk assets.. JAAA dropped then (but much less than equities). So no! Don’t rely on it for trading needs. (I no longer own it.) I also lost on PRIHX which I loaded up on in my taxable account roughly 5-6 years ago. It had appeared so “safe” based on past performance. Yet when I finally sold out 3 or 4 years later it was worth less then at purchase.
Oh. Excuse me. I realize you’re not supposed to confess past mistakes here!