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NOTES Rates: Fed funds held at 4.25-4.50%, bank reserves rate at 4.40%, discount rate at 4.50%. Treasury QT continued -$5 billion/mo, MBS QT at -$35 billion/mo.
Economy & job market are strong. Inflation is a bit higher than the target 2%+. Fed's dual mandate looks in balance now. However, risks to both inflation & job market have risen. Fed is patient & will wait to see which way the tilt may be. There is no clarity now on soft landing, stagflation or recession.
Sentiments & soft data have deteriorated significantly & that is concerning. Hard data remain good. Their linkage is weak but the changes in soft data cannot be ignored either. Uncertainties are high. https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1976/thread
... which means FOTUS will be up late into the evening wailing on his liddle social media site about how Powell sucks, needs to cut rates NOW!, and deserves to be replaced immediately, right?
... which means FOTUS will be up late into the evening wailing on his liddle social media site about how Powell sucks, needs to cut rates NOW!, and deserves to be replaced immediately, right?
Called it. So predictable and pathetic. Or as he might say, Sad!
Which means nothing is falling apart except ranting daily by certain people.
I don't think that is an accurate statement either. As I understand the Fed's rationale, the impact of tarriffs is not yet settled, but there are serious concerns. It appears we are going to see the higher costs, as current inventory is sold down. The more likely scenario is inventory reduction and empty shelves. All the Fed said is that they need more time to see the tarriff situation play out
Comments
Rates: Fed funds held at 4.25-4.50%, bank reserves rate at 4.40%, discount rate at 4.50%. Treasury QT continued -$5 billion/mo, MBS QT at -$35 billion/mo.
Economy & job market are strong. Inflation is a bit higher than the target 2%+. Fed's dual mandate looks in balance now. However, risks to both inflation & job market have risen. Fed is patient & will wait to see which way the tilt may be. There is no clarity now on soft landing, stagflation or recession.
Sentiments & soft data have deteriorated significantly & that is concerning. Hard data remain good. Their linkage is weak but the changes in soft data cannot be ignored either. Uncertainties are high.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1976/thread
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-powell-2671917462/